5/15(northern half) & 5/16(southern half of subforum) Severe Wx Threats

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

That supercell takes basically the same track as the Palm Sunday F4s, eerie. 

[SolidIcewx]

23 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

That supercell takes basically the same track as the Palm Sunday F4s, eerie. 

That was my thought as well. But this one would have a bit more of a northerly component compared to those storms. Coworker of mine told me her story of surviving the Palm Sunday f4 just a few months ago.

[madwx]

I’m buying this event and am ready to wedge tomorrow

[sbnwx85]

Since we’re on the topic of that 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, I produced a half hour special report for my station on the 60 year anniversary of it last month. Enjoy!

 

[SolidIcewx]

47 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Since we’re on the topic of that 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, I produced a half hour special report for my station on the 60 year anniversary of it last month. Enjoy!

 

Great peice!

[sbnwx85]

IWX seems to be getting on board for tomorrow. I’ll be sending texts out to family/friends making sure they don’t ignore warnings tomorrow and are prepared.

https://x.com/nwsiwx/status/1922760426359603502?s=46

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Think I’m sitting a bit too far west unless things slow down, but looking forward to watching Gary, IN get tossed into the lake. 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Think I’m sitting a bit too far west unless things slow down, but looking forward to watching Gary, IN get tossed into the lake. 

3K NAM, RRFS suggest the Sycamore area could well be in the bulls-eye.

[cyclone77]

Will see the developing cu pass overhead here early afternoon.  I'll crack open a beer and raise a toast to them and wish them well on their eastward journey.

[andyhb]

00z HRRR gets way too warm down south, outflowy/hail-driven mess if that's the case. Still has a few supercells in Wisconsin.

Edit: And shows what would likely be a major severe weather outbreak on Friday across the OV/Mid South.

[largetornado]

MODS, given the increasing severe weather threat on friday across the southern portion of the subforum, can we add 5/16 to the title?

[Chicago Storm]

MODS, given the increasing severe weather threat on friday across the southern portion of the subforum, can we add 5/16 to the title?

edit your original post to change the title.

[A-L-E-K]

hrrr p insistent on discrete cells going up right over the metro area this afternoon

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The little bit of fog this morning has a forboding feeling here

[SolidIcewx]

3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The little bit of fog this morning has a forboding feeling here

Air does feel kinda tense today. Pure sun off rip as well

[madwx]

Altocumulus flowing overhead this morning. No better feeling

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Ready to get missed twice today. 

[sbnwx85]

I wouldn’t be shocked if SPC goes moderate risk for the Michiana region. Storms may be more linear by the time they get here but an embedded, strong tornado or two seems like a good bet locally.

[IWXwx]

Looks like I'll be heading northwest today and south tomorrow

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Enhanced risk expanded slightly south and further east to Detroit, 30% sig wind introduced over Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan. They're expecting mature supercell's ahead of the line so some areas could have a tornado threat and then damaging wind right behind it 

[Harry Perry]

18 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Enhanced risk expanded slightly south and further east to Detroit, 30% sig wind introduced over Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan. They're expecting mature supercell's ahead of the line so some areas could have a tornado threat and then damaging wind right behind it 

High-end enhanced. Surprised they didn’t go moderate, but makes sense. 

[Powerball]

Looking good, y'all...

[homedis]

I didn't see it on the previous outlooks (maybe I missed it) but there's a 10% hatched tornado probs for WI thru NE IL and NW IN. Pretty narrow corridor due to the expectation of the discrete cells transitioning to a linear complex quickly, I'd imagine. Should be an interesting day.

[Chicago Storm]

Most of the high res guidance has this now.

Yep. That’s a game changer right there.

Large hail/wind threat looks tops today. Tor threat is still pretty low, as spreads are too high around here. This isn’t Colorado…. 92/65 isn’t gonna cut it. But, now that I said that…

[A-L-E-K]

ready for the stones

[pen_artist]

I know wording should always be taken with a grain of salt but this is from Paul Sirvatka at College of DuPage. Maybe a little overzealous but still eye catching nonetheless: 

ATTENTION:
The following is a message from COD Meteorology Staff...

THREAT:
Explosive thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon across northeast Illinois.

TIMING:
Expect the first and most significant storms to move across DuPage County in the 4-6PM time range with additional development into the evening.

AREAS AFFECTED:
Storms will be numerous across the entire Chicago metropolitan area but the exact impacts on College of DuPage are not exactly known.

DETAILED INFORMATION:
Near-record warmth and rising dew points will bring us our first real taste of summer today, with heat indices climbing into the 90s this afternoon. An upper-level disturbance, combined with an approaching dryline, will lead to at least scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon rush.

In what will be an extremely unstable atmosphere, any storms that form will be capable of producing very strong winds and large to very large hail, with hailstones potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Depending on how low-level winds evolve, a few tornadoes will be possible—including the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes across the region.

Additional storms may develop after the initial round and track through the Chicago metro during the early evening hours before conditions turn drier and windier overnight.

Tomorrow, while the threat is expected to be less intense, scattered severe storms remain possible in the afternoon ahead of a cold front. That front will bring cooler and drier air to the region overnight Friday.

⚠️ Reminder: We will move people to shelter in the event of a tornado warning affecting any COD campus, or if a severe thunderstorm produces 2.5” hail or winds of 80 mph. Please stay alert to evolving forecasts and warnings.

Stay safe and prepared!

Paul Sirvatka
Professor of Meteorology
College of DuPage – NEXLAB
 

[A-L-E-K]

definitely the first day all year imby that feels juicy 

[sbnwx85]

Juiciest day 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Miss on round one. Guidance nailed the hard turn to the north as the decaying line approached the metro.

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Yep. That’s a game changer right there.

Large hail/wind threat looks tops today. Tor threat is still pretty low, as spreads are too high around here. This isn’t Colorado…. 92/65 isn’t gonna cut it. But, now that I said that…

If temperatures are held down a few degrees from the HRRR soundings (which the current clouds over southern Wisconsin might help with) we could be in business. However 12Z CAMs trended to a messier mode around here. Only the RRFS still maintains more spaced out cells.