sbnwx85 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 New MD out for Illinois. Monster hail possible. Mesoscale Discussion 0794 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152022Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible with supercells that can develop later this afternoon. Watch timing is uncertain but is possible later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus are developing along an eastward moving dryline near the Mississippi River. Ahead of this boundary, a strongly unstable airmass is in place (low 90s F temperatures and mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints). With the strongest mid-level ascent to the northwest of the region, timing of storm initiation as well as storm coverage are uncertain. However, given the lack of MLCIN, a isolated to widely scattered development appears possible later this afternoon. 45-55 kts of effective shear will support supercells. The primary hazards will be large to very large hail and severe winds. The tornado threat is expected to be less than farther north given the slightly veered low-level winds and more sizable temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 I'm just north of you. We haven't had a proper thunderstorm around here in?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Has ORD hit a record high for the date, yet? My thermo was stuck at 93 while driving around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 This cell headed towards Madison is trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Cells popping up all over. Winds backed nicely. Bases are a little high but cell level processes bring them down a bit 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Plenty of supercells with hail but everything is still pretty sky high. Watching for any mergers or nudges. Especially the cells south of Madison 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Things starting to unzip along the dry line in W IL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Damn we are getting a dust storm here. Wasn’t expecting this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Nice towers going up in western horizon here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Had 1/2” hail here with a cell that formed right overhead. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 2 minutes ago, Nelson said: Had 1/2” hail here with a cell that formed right overhead. . Yikes, going to be a wild ride this evening. Someone’s going to end up with monster hail out of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 At least some of these cells must be above the inversion at 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Continuous thunder with this cell coming in from the southwest. Building quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 1 hour ago, iBrian said: Has ORD hit a record high for the date, yet? My thermo was stuck at 93 while driving around. Yes, it hit at least 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said: New MD out for Illinois. Monster hail possible. Mesoscale Discussion 0794 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152022Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible with supercells that can develop later this afternoon. Watch timing is uncertain but is possible later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus are developing along an eastward moving dryline near the Mississippi River. Ahead of this boundary, a strongly unstable airmass is in place (low 90s F temperatures and mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints). With the strongest mid-level ascent to the northwest of the region, timing of storm initiation as well as storm coverage are uncertain. However, given the lack of MLCIN, a isolated to widely scattered development appears possible later this afternoon. 45-55 kts of effective shear will support supercells. The primary hazards will be large to very large hail and severe winds. The tornado threat is expected to be less than farther north given the slightly veered low-level winds and more sizable temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/15/2025 only watch possible? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Might have twin tors near Loyal, WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: only watch possible? Should have been issued a half hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Should have been issued a half hour ago. Out now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Should have been issued a half hour ago.and then they go with a tornado watch, which is comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: and then they go with a tornado watch, which is comical. With 50/30 tornado probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: and then they go with a tornado watch, which is comical. Don't agree with LOT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 That cell near Beaver Dam is looking pretty gnarly on the most recent frames... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: That cell near Beaver Dam is looking pretty gnarly on the most recent frames... Tight couplet near oak grove edit- looks like a cc drop as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 The northern edge of that 90 degree heat bubble could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Tornado in progress near Juneau WI right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Tight couplet near oak grove edit- looks like a cc drop as well Debris sig really ramping up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 87 with dews now up at 69 with gusts up to 34mph imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Tornado just made a direct hit on Mayville WI, pop. >5000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 It will take me a long time to emotionally recover if these storms don't fire for me. EDIT: I guess more accurate to say if they die out and get capped... I don't think the HRRR has a good handle on what's happening in Illinois if it's trying to kill those storms along the dry line so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now