Winter 2025-26

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Slightly above average snow and slightly below average temperatures is bold for this era.

I started and stopped reading the article with this sentence.  I'm sold.  

 

Some of Washington, D.C.’s most memorable winters have come with the QBO in its easterly phase. The multi-blizzard winter of 2009-2010 (56.1") was an easterly QBO winter, as was 2002-2003 (29.0")...

[GramaxRefugee]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Slightly above average snow and slightly below average temperatures is bold for this era.

I see that text, but I would call that snowfall map average to a bit below average.  

Looks like a good report though.( I didn't read the whole thing, I confess)

[frd]

2 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

I see that text, but I would call that snowfall map average to a bit below average.  

Looks like a good report though.( I didn't read the whole thing, I confess)

We know there have been some memorable snow  chases at the beach,  specifically Bethany and Rehoboth during previous winters such as this one coming up featuring Nina background state. 

This forecast has that area in 0 to 6 in. Will be interesting to reflect back on this forecast once we get to early March. 

 

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

52 minutes ago, frd said:

We know there have been some memorable snow  chases at the beach,  specifically Bethany and Rehoboth during previous winters such as this one coming up featuring Nina background state. 

This forecast has that area in 0 to 6 in. Will be interesting to reflect back on this forecast must we get to early March. 

 

 

 

 

While their snowfall map was reasonable, I would have broadbrushed the 12-18" zone more evenly from the mountains all the way eastward to the beaches, and then cut the numbers by 70%. So basically 9-14" for the entire midatlantic outside of the higher elevations.

[Solution Man]

6 hours ago, bncho said:

12-18"? Where is @Solution Man's "sign here" poster?

Lurking 

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Slightly above average snow and slightly below average temperatures is bold for this era.

LOL that's boilerplate climo. Lazy af. It's what most of these local mets do every Fall. How many times has that worked out east of the mountains since 2016? Hint- coastal areas have gotten above normal snow more times than not- that's well more than 0-6 lol.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

While their snowfall map was reasonable, I would have broadbrushed the 12-18" zone more evenly from the mountains all the way eastward to the beaches, and then cut the numbers by 70%. So basically 9-14" for the entire midatlantic outside of the higher elevations.

Its lazy. They roll that shit out every Fall.

[Eskimo Joe]

20 hours ago, CAPE said:

Advertised h5 on the latest Euro Weeklies for the beginning of winter(Dec). -NAO/50-50 low, TPV in a good spot + EPO ridge. That pattern is sustained/improves a bit through mid month, fwiw ofc.

Could you imagine if we got a legit Dec 5th event? Something like a regionwide 3" - 5" fluff storm? This place would crash from excitement.

[CAPE]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Could you imagine if we got a legit Dec 5th event? Something like a regionwide 3" - 5" fluff storm? This place would crash from excitement.

We need to restart that early Dec snow heater. Been too long.

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Could you imagine if we got a legit Dec 5th event? Something like a regionwide 3" - 5" fluff storm? This place would crash from excitement.

That’s my baby son’s due date…

[CAPE]

21 hours ago, CAPE said:

Advertised h5 on the latest Euro Weeklies for the beginning of winter(Dec). -NAO/50-50 low, TPV in a good spot + EPO ridge. That pattern is sustained/improves a bit through mid month, fwiw ofc.

Today's edition of the Weeklies for the mid Dec period- hey we can dream a little right? Why not be optimistic heading into the first third of winter. Easy to be pessimistic.

[WxUSAF]

Per Webb, HM is very bullish on January. But not sure where he’s getting that from. Everyone seems onboard with a cold December. I’m still not sold on a snowy December though.

[Eskimo Joe]

44 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That’s my baby son’s due date…

CONGRATULATIONS! MILLER A's FOR EVERYONE!

[bncho]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That’s my baby son’s due date…

the terpeast storm

[frd]

41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Per Webb, HM is very bullish on January. But not sure where he’s getting that from. Everyone seems onboard with a cold December. I’m still not sold on a snowy December though.

Might be related to ideas about favorable and longer lasting MJO effects in winter, and the possibly strat evolution later in December. Just a guess. 

Webb posted this as a link.

  https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL104826

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUSAF]

JB2 going snowiest Nina since 95-96?

 

[IronTy]

I got a good feeling for this December.  Lube up your snow shovels, gonna need them.  I'm even seeing a white Christmas on the table.  Of course I'll be up at the cabin for Christmas with the wood stove on blast.  

[IronTy]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

JB2 going snowiest Nina since 95-96?

 

That dude just posted a map of basically every possible storm track we could get so he's got his bases covered.   Surprised he didn't throw the SER in there as a possibility just to cover the failure mode.  

 

ETA - I was looking at his maps and couldn't figure out where Baltimore is, can anybody help?

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Per Webb, HM is very bullish on January. But not sure where he’s getting that from. Everyone seems onboard with a cold December. I’m still not sold on a snowy December though.

 

18 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That dude just posted a map of basically every possible storm track we could get so he's got his bases covered.   Surprised he didn't throw the SER in there as a possibility just to cover the failure mode.  

 

ETA - I was looking at his maps and couldn't figure out where Baltimore is, can anybody help?

It was actually a good read and well thought out. Just sayin. 

[RIC_WX]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

JB2 going snowiest Nina since 95-96?

 

Bold prediction for DC-Balt corridor.  Points west, a little more reason to be bullish but the pattern has to establish itself on time and not end altogether after a good 3 or 4 week run.  Relax, and reload.  Hopefully we all get in on some fun this year.

[nj2va]

9 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

Bold prediction for DC-Balt corridor.  Points west, a little more reason to be bullish but the pattern has to establish itself on time and not end altogether after a good 3 or 4 week run.  Relax, and reload.  Hopefully we all get in on some fun this year.

Triple digits in Deep Creek would remind me of winters of the past there (and last year). Fingers crossed a good year for the ski resorts. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[yoda]

I know this may be more SNE-centric... but i liked seeing this from Will.  

23 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like most long range guidance is very bullish on a lot of Atlantic blocking going into December, so as long as we can at least get a serviceable Pacific, it could be a favorable setup. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

44 minutes ago, yoda said:

I know this may be more SNE-centric... but i liked seeing this from Will.  

 

LFG

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest CFS says yes to snow lovers for late Nov through January. Looks like a solid Feb torch though

 

 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest CFS says yes to snow lovers for late Nov through January. Looks like a solid Feb torch though

 

 

Feb torch is a classic Nina trademark, and has been extra strong in the recent -PDO regime so I'm expecting a hostile Feb by default.  If the E CONUS actually got a cold and productive Dec/Jan, I wouldn't be too broken up abut a mild feb though.

[frd]

 

 

 

This December seems to have decent below normal temp departures in our area,  and in the East overall. 

Snow chances would be elevated.    

 

 

 

Commodity Wx Group  @commoditywx

 

 

European weekly upper level patterns favor colder than normal 12/5, 12/12, and 12/19 EIA weeks for U.S.

 

[bncho]

Do any of you think we could break the December snow drought, or will it just be cold & dry?

[Ji]

35 minutes ago, bncho said:

Do any of you think we could break the December snow drought, or will it just be cold & dry?

storms are the biggest crapshoot but without cold--it wouldnt matter. one thing that i hate about ninas is that we need phasing typically to get something good and we suck at phasing at the right time. usually very little gulf action