Winter 2025-26

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I was just going back and looking through the snow totals by month and year for BWI, and I notice that the official records show a trace of snow in August of 2015 and June of 2016. Does anyone remember these? Seems like it has to be a mistake. 

Hail.

[Eskimo Joe]

41 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I was just going back and looking through the snow totals by month and year for BWI, and I notice that the official records show a trace of snow in August of 2015 and June of 2016. Does anyone remember these? Seems like it has to be a mistake. 

Most likely reporting hail as snow. It's a dumb rule, but it's frozen so it count, IIRC.

[Ruin]

On 10/20/2025 at 12:13 AM, Steve25 said:

I really haven’t seen any reputable sources say very snowy to the point where you wish we skip winter. 
 

I think the most reasonable outlook I’ve seen the most from people that aren’t fishing for clicks and trying to spread hype is that below normal temperature stretches are definitely on the table but that the most likely outcome during those stretches would be cold and dry. Seems like our chances of getting any significant snow events is fairly unlikely as the ingredients would have to come together in a way that’s not typical for the pattern we will have in place this winter. Another winter where we will likely need to nickel and dime our way during the cold stretches if we want to get close to average snowfall. 

All the local channels and a few retired weather guts on Twitter youtube but they can't even predict what's going to happen two days from now you know so it's a toss up

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

All the local channels and a few retired weather guts on Twitter youtube but they can't even predict what's going to happen two days from now you know so it's a toss up

I don't blame any TV or social media met for going average/above average in temps for winter. Since 2016, we've been stuck in a long term cycle of above normal temps during winter. Last year was the first real exception.

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

All the local channels and a few retired weather guts on Twitter youtube but they can't even predict what's going to happen two days from now you know so it's a toss up

You need to forget those mets and follow JI's wintery mix lol. Most accurate page on the internet. No hype at all lol

[psuhoffman]

19 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Weak Nina's arent the end all. My question is how much has the background state changed since 2000? I am not hating what I am seeing so far. A white Christmas would be nice for a change. 2009 and 2020 were the last two out this way. 

Things have definitely warmed after the 2016 super Nina and stayed in a permanent warmer base state due to the persistently torched pacific basin. Whether that is permanent is the question. 

[Krs4Lfe]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Things have definitely warmed after the 2016 super Nina and stayed in a permanent warmer base state due to the persistently torched pacific basin. Whether that is permanent is the question. 

Normally I would say it's not permanent because weather patterns change quite often. But with the background state of the climate, I think climate change has made the WestPac so warm (which enhances the PacJet and causes west coast storminess and only transient troughs in the east at best), that there's no turning back. I think more of us will come along to this idea towards the end of the decade if we continue to see lack of snow in the area. In the past, decades with low snowfall amounts could be attributed to periods of drier weather or transient year-to-year weather pattern changes. But since late 2010s, we've been in a generally low amount of snowfall (save for a few winters) because it's just too warm to snow. 

[frd]

 

 

Uncharted territory here with this new record negative IOD.

 

[frd]

Allan Huffman  @RaleighWx

Some chatter in the long range about a SSWE. Here was yesterdays 00z EC46 10mb U forecast. Lots of squiggly lines but in looking at the raw data, 45 of the 100 EC46 members show at least 1 day with a -U (reversal) between now and 12/19with 12/1 the day with the most members with a negative value. If a SSWE occurs, it CAN increase the risk for high latitude blocking (-AO) and increased risk for discharge of arctic air into the mid latitudes, usually 1-2 weeks after the reversal. Just an interesting item to monitor.

 

 

[WEATHER53]

On 8/11/2025 at 11:30 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Last year had the very cold hits but could not sustain. Things that happened as they did this season, cool and wet may into June and then hot and  humid as hell itself with constant thunderstorms. Now zero thunderstorms.  I found a lot of those winters that followed had lengthy but not spectacular cold This summer was like 2010 in my backyard. I remember 1966  with the persistent late afternoon thunderstorms . And others.  Great reading everything y’all
 

To specify more the trends and outcomes continue to indicate another improved winter from last winter.  
i think 2 of the three months are below average in temps with an impressive 30-45 day cold persistence .

for the major airport snowfalls 

DCA;15-20”

BWI and IAD:20-30” 

 

 

 

[frd]

Eric Fisher @ericfisher

 

Looking like a front-loaded winter that will get off to a fast (cold) start

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Updated Euro seasonal out today. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Updated Euro seasonal out today. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.

Awesome. Looks like we are only going to be in the 6th circle of hell rather than the 8th.

[Ji]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Updated Euro seasonal out today. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.

January was much cooler but Feb was slightly warmer lol

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

January was much cooler but Feb was slightly warmer lol

February Niñas are notoriously warm and dry with few exceptions unfortunately. We'll definitely need to hope late November thru January work out or we're outta luck (short of 1 of those few exceptions.)

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

February Niñas are notoriously warm and dry with few exceptions unfortunately. We'll definitely need to hope late November thru January work out or we're outta luck (short of 1 of those few exceptions.)

Unless the niña breaks in February.

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS seasonal.  Biggest, and significant cool down forecast compared to last month's run is January.

[Weather Will]

Strat warm talk...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-event-polar-vortex-forecast-winter-2025-2026-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS seasonal.  Biggest, and significant cool down forecast compared to last month's run is January.

That much colder Jan vs the prior run is likely imho due to the increased support by a decent portion of the 100 ensemble members for a major SSW in late Nov or early Dec when considering the typical timing of the lagged cold. If this early SSWE were to actually occur, I’d expect Jan to verify even colder than this. But if it doesn’t, it could very well verify warmer like the prior run you showed.