Winter 2025-26

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The NAO is correlated with changes in the AMO at about 0.4, or 70% of the time. +NAO cools the AMO, we saw this in Hurricane season 2024 when there was a lull of activity mid-season during record +NAO. Now since October is -NAO, and the NAO looks to be negative a good 4 weeks, they are saying the AMO is changing. A better way to do that, is just roll forward October NAO, which does not actually  have a positive correlation with Winter NAO. Every October has been -NAO since 2019. 

[Heisy]

Back out of hibernation. Saw this on our Philly discord




.

[WxUSAF]

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

[Terpeast]

16 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

Yes. Too soon. But we saw the other day where cold novembers tend to be a better omen for overall winter seasons in cool enso years. OTOH, we’ve had 3 BN months in a row. Have we ever had 6-7 straight BN months in a warming climate, especially through the cold season?

It could go either way. Cold nov/dec = decent winter… or torch-uary. I’ll make my call in a week or so, but still not sure which way I’m gonna go. 

[psuhoffman]

17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

No lies were told. I wonder how much of the ~18% of our snow climo we’ve lost is due to the fact our pre new years snowfall has fallen off a cliff.  

[stormy]

The repetitive pattern last month to 6 weeks has been southern systems with HP up north. Again this coming week...............

I have commented on this more than once.  Usually, patterns last less than 120 days, but usually is not always.

If this continues into the winter...................  Reasonable logic may need to be trashed...............

[mattie g]

18 hours ago, stormy said:

The repetitive pattern last month to 6 weeks has been southern systems with HP up north. Again this coming week...............

I have commented on this more than once.  Usually, patterns last less than 120 days, but usually is not always.

If this continues into the winter...................  Reasonable logic may need to be trashed...............

Aunt

Balls

Uncle

[Jebman]

Mid Atlantic will be digging a LOT of snow this winter. Bank on it.

[Jebman]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yes. Too soon. But we saw the other day where cold novembers tend to be a better omen for overall winter seasons in cool enso years. OTOH, we’ve had 3 BN months in a row. Have we ever had 6-7 straight BN months in a warming climate, especially through the cold season?

It could go either way. Cold nov/dec = decent winter… or torch-uary. I’ll make my call in a week or so, but still not sure which way I’m gonna go. 

Cold nov/dec = JanuBuried in DCA.

Fixed.

FebuBuried, too. No mercy. Morched, too.

[North Balti Zen]

7 hours ago, mattie g said:

Aunt

Balls

Uncle

Phrasing…

[Bob Chill]

21 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yes. Too soon. But we saw the other day where cold novembers tend to be a better omen for overall winter seasons in cool enso years. OTOH, we’ve had 3 BN months in a row. Have we ever had 6-7 straight BN months in a warming climate, especially through the cold season?

It could go either way. Cold nov/dec = decent winter… or torch-uary. I’ll make my call in a week or so, but still not sure which way I’m gonna go. 

I've become more optimistic for a couple basic reasons. The Wpac/pdo area has improved dramatically in just a month and a half. The nina setup isn't that strong and may not drive the bus in a bad way (SE ridge of doom and stuff like that). Lastly, my personal algorithm and gut instinct likes the chances of a favorable AO/NAO on the balance for DJFM. I'm pretty confident in some decent blocking at times and it probably will include Dec.  If/when/how much is way beyond my pay grade. But the Dec AO monthly mean is probably the most reliable long range index there is. Get a Dec AO avg below -1.25 and a dud winter is most likely off the table. 

PDO is still negative but considering the frog boil that was happening back in early Sept, things have greatly improved. Maybe due to the record cold in Siberia exiting the coast. Not really sure. But this plot doesn't look dire to me anymore. 

All this said, I'm kinda meh on snowfall totals. My wag is sub climo and that's a pretty easy guess all things considered. Getting a northern stream dominated winter to produce consistently is awful tuff in these parts. Would need some sort of stream phasing at times or a really big block to bring the goods. Both of which are possible... but probable?.... nah lol 

Gun to head, temps within 2 degrees of avg either way and somewhere around 75% of climo snow with some random iteration of weird jack zones vs typical embedded in the mix. 

It's still pretty early to marry any ideas. Once Dec comes into focus we can start hallucinating victory or hitting the panic button with more confidence. 

ETA: the WDI is pretty strong for at least one traditional good coastal storm that puts down a large blanket of warning totals through the MA and NE. We really are due for something like that. 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I've become more optimistic for a couple basic reasons. The Wpac/pdo area has improved dramatically in just a month and a half. The nina setup isn't that strong and may not drive the bus in a bad way (SE ridge of doom and stuff like that). Lastly, my personal algorithm and gut instinct likes the chances of a favorable AO/NAO on the balance for DJFM. I'm pretty confident in some decent blocking at times and it probably will include Dec.  If/when/how much is way beyond my pay grade. But the Dec AO monthly mean is probably the most reliable long range index there is. Get a Dec AO avg below -1.25 and a dud winter is most likely off the table. 

PDO is still negative but considering the frog boil that was happening back in early Sept, things have greatly improved. Maybe due to the record cold in Siberia exiting the coast. Not really sure. But this plot doesn't look dire to me anymore. 

All this said, I'm kinda meh on snowfall totals. My wag is sub climo and that's a pretty easy guess all things considered. Getting a northern stream dominated winter to produce consistently is awful tuff in these parts. Would need some sort of stream phasing at times or a really big block to bring the goods. Both of which are possible... but probable?.... nah lol 

Gun to head, temps within 2 degrees of avg either way and somewhere around 75% of climo snow with some random iteration of weird jack zones vs typical embedded in the mix. 

It's still pretty early to marry any ideas. Once Dec comes into focus we can start hallucinating victory or hitting the panic button with more confidence. 

ETA: the WDI is pretty strong for at least one traditional good coastal storm that puts down a large blanket of warning totals through the MA and NE. We really are due for something like that. 

 

Lots of cooling near Japen of late.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

ETA: the WDI is pretty strong for at least one traditional good coastal storm that puts down a large blanket of warning totals through the MA and NE. We really are due for something like that.

Wouldn't a scenario like that be more likely for Philly.to NE though? Hard to see us getting warning snowfall from a coastal in a nina. I mean the same dynamic is at play each time, isn't it?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I've become more optimistic for a couple basic reasons. The Wpac/pdo area has improved dramatically in just a month and a half. The nina setup isn't that strong and may not drive the bus in a bad way (SE ridge of doom and stuff like that). Lastly, my personal algorithm and gut instinct likes the chances of a favorable AO/NAO on the balance for DJFM. I'm pretty confident in some decent blocking at times and it probably will include Dec.  If/when/how much is way beyond my pay grade. But the Dec AO monthly mean is probably the most reliable long range index there is. Get a Dec AO avg below -1.25 and a dud winter is most likely off the table. 

PDO is still negative but considering the frog boil that was happening back in early Sept, things have greatly improved. Maybe due to the record cold in Siberia exiting the coast. Not really sure. But this plot doesn't look dire to me anymore. 

All this said, I'm kinda meh on snowfall totals. My wag is sub climo and that's a pretty easy guess all things considered. Getting a northern stream dominated winter to produce consistently is awful tuff in these parts. Would need some sort of stream phasing at times or a really big block to bring the goods. Both of which are possible... but probable?.... nah lol 

Gun to head, temps within 2 degrees of avg either way and somewhere around 75% of climo snow with some random iteration of weird jack zones vs typical embedded in the mix. 

It's still pretty early to marry any ideas. Once Dec comes into focus we can start hallucinating victory or hitting the panic button with more confidence. 

ETA: the WDI is pretty strong for at least one traditional good coastal storm that puts down a large blanket of warning totals through the MA and NE. We really are due for something like that. 

 

I believe in the WDI. The PDO? Eh, just hope for less hostility, which it seems to be trending towards. Kind of aligns historically- a weak cold ENSO should correlate to a weakly negative PDO. Bottom line is if we have periods with a +PNA and/or -EPO, and get a little help in the NA, we should have cold shots with storm chances. The rest is luck with timing waves, as always.

[Chris78]

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wouldn't a scenario like that be more likely for Philly.to NE though? Hard to see us getting warning snowfall from a coastal in a nina. I mean the same dynamic is at play each time, isn't it?

We can't underestimate the WDI. 

Sometimes it just happens.

It's been several years since I've broken the 20" mark for a season.  That's nuts where I'm located at the base of the Catoctins at over 750ft in elevation. 

Some were from just dreg winters and some was just bad luck. 

The WDI is running pretty high.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wouldn't a scenario like that be more likely for Philly.to NE though? Hard to see us getting warning snowfall from a coastal in a nina. I mean the same dynamic is at play each time, isn't it?

Nina climo can be harsh with the MA getting a major or historic storm to run the full gauntlet but it's always possible for an average coastal to make a run up 95 in any enso state. Nina's favor higher totals north of us but it's not a stretch at all to get a 6-10 swipe here with double that from Philly north. 

Get some legit blocking in place and bigger things can happen like Jan 96 and 11. Far fewer and between for big storms but no sense ruling them out until March

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I believe in the WDI. The PDO? Eh, just hope for less hostility, which it seems to be trending towards. Kind of aligns historically- a weak cold ENSO should correlate to a weakly negative PDO. Bottom line is if we have periods with a +PNA and/or -EPO, and get a little help in the NA, we should have cold shots with storm chances. The rest is luck with timing waves, as always.

Exactly. The PDO is just a single piece. Just dont want a big -pdo flex. That really hurts. Doesn't look like that is happening... so far....

I wouldn't be surprised if your area is one of the weird jacks this year. Recent history is on your side. I dont expect anything exceptional in my new yard no matter what happens this year lol