Winter 2025-26

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The NAO is correlated with changes in the AMO at about 0.4, or 70% of the time. +NAO cools the AMO, we saw this in Hurricane season 2024 when there was a lull of activity mid-season during record +NAO. Now since October is -NAO, and the NAO looks to be negative a good 4 weeks, they are saying the AMO is changing. A better way to do that, is just roll forward October NAO, which does not actually  have a positive correlation with Winter NAO. Every October has been -NAO since 2019. 

[Heisy]

Back out of hibernation. Saw this on our Philly discord




.

[WxUSAF]

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

[Terpeast]

16 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

Yes. Too soon. But we saw the other day where cold novembers tend to be a better omen for overall winter seasons in cool enso years. OTOH, we’ve had 3 BN months in a row. Have we ever had 6-7 straight BN months in a warming climate, especially through the cold season?

It could go either way. Cold nov/dec = decent winter… or torch-uary. I’ll make my call in a week or so, but still not sure which way I’m gonna go. 

[psuhoffman]

17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

No lies were told. I wonder how much of the ~18% of our snow climo we’ve lost is due to the fact our pre new years snowfall has fallen off a cliff.  

[stormy]

The repetitive pattern last month to 6 weeks has been southern systems with HP up north. Again this coming week...............

I have commented on this more than once.  Usually, patterns last less than 120 days, but usually is not always.

If this continues into the winter...................  Reasonable logic may need to be trashed...............

[mattie g]

5 hours ago, stormy said:

The repetitive pattern last month to 6 weeks has been southern systems with HP up north. Again this coming week...............

I have commented on this more than once.  Usually, patterns last less than 120 days, but usually is not always.

If this continues into the winter...................  Reasonable logic may need to be trashed...............

Aunt

Balls

Uncle

[Jebman]

Mid Atlantic will be digging a LOT of snow this winter. Bank on it.

[Jebman]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yes. Too soon. But we saw the other day where cold novembers tend to be a better omen for overall winter seasons in cool enso years. OTOH, we’ve had 3 BN months in a row. Have we ever had 6-7 straight BN months in a warming climate, especially through the cold season?

It could go either way. Cold nov/dec = decent winter… or torch-uary. I’ll make my call in a week or so, but still not sure which way I’m gonna go. 

Cold nov/dec = JanuBuried in DCA.

Fixed.

FebuBuried, too. No mercy. Morched, too.

[North Balti Zen]

7 hours ago, mattie g said:

Aunt

Balls

Uncle

Phrasing…