Winter 2025-26

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The way that plot is made, doesn’t Dec-Jan 2001 mean Dec 2001-Jan 2002??

They use the last month as the year. So Dec-Jan 2001 would be 00-01.  US Climate division data uses the year for the first month, and those monthly climate maps use the last month. 

[WxUSAF]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

They use the last month as the year. So Dec-Jan 2001 would be 00-01.  US Climate division data uses the year for the first month, and those monthly climate maps use the last month. 

Oh my mistake. That definitely changes the sensible outcomes.

[Weather Will]

Good BAM video.  Looks like we need November and December to rock...what could possibly go wrong?!

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Marked improvement in the PDO region over the last 30 days. Only around halfway to neutral though lol but you gotta start somewhere 

[Terpeast]

58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Marked improvement in the PDO region over the last 30 days. Only around halfway to neutral though lol but you gotta start somewhere 

Yeah lets move that warm blob underneath the aleutians further east into GOA in the next couple of months, and we’re in business. 

[bncho]

 

12 INCH SNOWSTORMS IN DC SINCE 1930

Year	Event	DCA or IAD ≥12”?
1942	Late March 1942 storm	✅ DCA ~14"
1958	Feb 15–16, 1958	✅ DCA 14.4"
1966	Jan 29, 1966	✅ DCA ~12"
1971	Dec 30, 1970 – Jan 1, 1971	✅ DCA ~15"
1979	Feb 18–19, 1979 (Presidents’ Day)	✅ DCA 18.7"
1996	Jan 6–8, 1996	✅ DCA 17" / IAD 24"
2003	Feb 16–18, 2003	✅ DCA 16.4" / IAD 22"
2009	Dec 18–19, 2009	✅ DCA 16.4"
2010	Feb 5–6, 2010 (“Snowmageddon”)	✅ DCA 17.8" / IAD 32"
2016	Jan 22–24, 2016 (“Jonas”)	✅ DCA 17.8" / IAD 29"
2026 (?)	Jan 14–16, 2026 (?)	✅ DCA 22" / IAD 34" (?)

[Bob Chill]

50 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah lets move that warm blob underneath the aleutians further east into GOA in the next couple of months, and we’re in business. 

I was kinda surprised looking at the plot. I made a mental note several weeks back that ensembles showed persistent troughing in the Wpac but never remembered to track progress. We'll see how it looks in another month when it really starts to count. At least it looks good enough to hallucinate a path to victory now. Weak nina with a -epo and some -ao/Nao thrown into the mix and we can start throwing around the 13-14 and 14-15 analogs hahahah

[JenkinsJinkies]

A good chunk of the enso forum thinks 22-23 is on the table.

[psuhoffman]

On 10/13/2025 at 5:22 PM, Bob Chill said:

Marked improvement in the PDO region over the last 30 days. Only around halfway to neutral though lol but you gotta start somewhere 

This shit has to end eventually. But it feels like we’ve been saying that for a long time now. 

[osfan24]

Saw a DT post hyping up this winter a bit lol.

[bncho]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This shit has to end eventually. But it feels like we’ve been saying that for a long time now. 

just to clarify, when you refer to "this shit" (lol), are you referring to the PDO always rising in the fall/winter and falling back down in the spring/summer, or are you referring to the pdo rise right now, and you're saying that the rise can't last forever?

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

just to clarify, when you refer to "this shit" (lol), are you referring to the PDO always rising in the fall/winter and falling back down in the spring/summer, or are you referring to the pdo rise right now, and you're saying that the rise can't last forever?

The former. PDO rising in the fall, then falling back into the abyss during spring and summer has become something like a broken record the past few years. I don’t think we will know when it ends until the PDO stays well into positive territory for at least several months. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

The former. PDO rising in the fall, then falling back into the abyss during spring and summer has become something like a broken record the past few years. I don’t think we will know when it ends until the PDO stays well into positive territory for at least several months. 

Was that a normal part of previous -PDO cycles we've had?

[JenkinsJinkies]

From the ENSO thread

[jayyy]

Tony Pann posted something… interesting

“No Hurricanes have made landfall in the US so far this season. And only one Tropical Storm (Chantal). Over the last 20 years, there have been 5 years with no Hurricanes making landfall: 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015. The average winter snowfall for Baltimore in the following winter: 35"

Obviously this could be correlation and not causation but it’s an interesting factoid.