May 2025

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have seen a nice improvement since last fall as it’s tough to keep a really dry pattern going in this much wetter climate. 
 

 

The roller coaster precipitation pattern. Either excessive rainfall or complete lack of. As the jet tends toward stagnant configurations. Fits the climate change forecasts and should only intensify.

[Picard]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm skeptical of upton's 70-90% chance of rain at least through tonight

So, earlier, NWS Mount Holly dropped maps on X showing amounts up to 3" over North Jersey.  I replied with my skepticism, similar to what I did here.  And their account replied to me with the following:

"We have been missing out on better rainfall recently, but chances are looking better for a soaking rain tonight and tomorrow, at least from around I-95 and northwest".

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the Pacific Jet has been too strong during the winter. So as the gradient weakens further into the spring, the weaker jet isn’t able to act as a kicker. So these closed lows get stuck in place when people are ready for sunny spring weather. But the good news is that the northern edge of the drought areas to the north of I-80 and into CT has improved with the soaking rains there in recent days. 
 

 

But aren't we supposed to have stronger SE ridges too?  Those generally establish a ring of fire that keeps the storminess to our north and west.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have seen a nice improvement since last fall as it’s tough to keep a really dry pattern going in this much wetter climate. 
 

 

I'm sure it will dry out again come June, wet summers are rare here without tropical involvement.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmth across the area for the 1st week of May.

EWR…5th warmest

LGA….5th

HPN….5th

JFK….5th

ISP…..4th

BDR….5th

PHI…..5th

 

 

This is weird with no hot or even very warm days at all (it hasn't hit 80 at JFK from what I recall.)

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Picard said:

I remain skeptical of calls for a wetter pattern.  While I agree that there are things that may point to it, often times we see much of the precipitation off to the north and west or hook around and out of the area entirely.  This has been a trend for month after month now.  The latest drought monitor is out, which shows modest improvements in the more severe drought areas for NJ, but much of the more pronounced improvements in the northeast are all over central PA as well as central and western NY State.  

This is to be expected with a strong southeast ridge, usually north and west areas do better with rainfall.

[steve392]

Sun is stronggggggg today. Very humid too. Storms starting to pop off to my sw. 

[Poker2015]

had a downpour for 30 seconds max about 45 mins ago. From nothing to a deluge and back to nothing. 

.03"

Never seen it come down that hard for such a short amount of time.

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is weird with no hot or even very warm days at all (it hasn't hit 80 at JFK from what I recall.)

 

The strong onshore flow kept the upper 80s heat to our West.

 

 for May 1, 2025 through May 7, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	89
Newark Area	ThreadEx	88
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	88
HARRISON	COOP	88
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	87
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	87
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	87
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	86
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	86
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	86
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	86
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	86
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	86
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	85
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	85
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	85
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	85
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	85
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	85
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	85
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	85
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	85
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	84
MARGATE	COOP	84
MANASQUAN 1 NW	COOP	84
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	84
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	84
SUSSEX AIRPORT	WBAN	83
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	83
SCHOOLEY'S MOUNTAIN 1 SW	COOP	81
BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	81
HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW	COOP	80

 

Data for May 1, 2025 through May 7, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	88
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	88
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	87
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	87
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	87
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	86
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	85
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	83
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	83
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	83
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	82
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	82
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	82
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	82
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	81
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	81
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	81
CT	OXFORD WATERBURY	WBAN	79
NY	SYOSSET	COOP	79
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	79
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	78
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	77
NY	ST. JAMES	COOP	76
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	76
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	75
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	75
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	75
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	74
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	73
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	73
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	72
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	71
CT	DANBURY	COOP	70
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	70

[winterwx21]

12 Euro an inch to an inch and a half for a lot of the area. Some other models are in the half inch to inch range. This event still looks like a half inch to inch for most of the area, with some spots maybe getting as much as an inch and a half. 

[SACRUS]

Storms popping

 

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 80 ahead of the clouds now down to 77 / 55

[Picard]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is to be expected with a strong southeast ridge, usually north and west areas do better with rainfall.

That's fine, but recent forecasts haven't really been reflective of that fact.

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But aren't we supposed to have stronger SE ridges too?  Those generally establish a ring of fire that keeps the storminess to our north and west.

 

Yeah, the Southeast Ridge or WAR has been very strong this month. So the heaviest rains were pushed up further north than the I-78 to I-80 corridor. Looks like a repeat performance for the next few days.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Southeast Ridge or WAR has been very strong this month. So the heaviest rains were pushed up further north than the I-78 to I-80 corridor. Looks like a repeat performance for the next few days.

 

I remember this was the case in summer 1995, it's why the Mississippi River valley was so wet with the ring of fire surrounding us, August 1995 was historically dry because of it.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The strong onshore flow kept the upper 80s heat to our West.

 

 for May 1, 2025 through May 7, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	89
Newark Area	ThreadEx	88
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	88
HARRISON	COOP	88
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	87
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	87
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	87
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	86
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	86
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	86
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	86
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	86
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	86
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	85
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	85
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	85
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	85
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	85
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	85
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	85
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	85
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	85
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	84
MARGATE	COOP	84
MANASQUAN 1 NW	COOP	84
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	84
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	84
SUSSEX AIRPORT	WBAN	83
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	83
SCHOOLEY'S MOUNTAIN 1 SW	COOP	81
BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	81
HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW	COOP	80

 

Data for May 1, 2025 through May 7, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	88
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	88
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	87
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	87
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	87
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	86
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	85
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	83
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	83
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	83
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	82
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	82
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	82
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	82
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	81
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	81
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	81
CT	OXFORD WATERBURY	WBAN	79
NY	SYOSSET	COOP	79
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	79
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	78
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	77
NY	ST. JAMES	COOP	76
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	76
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	75
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	75
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	75
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	74
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	73
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	73
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	72
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	71
CT	DANBURY	COOP	70
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	70

wow Ocean County Airport-89- is that Toms River?

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point.  0.41" 125P-2P in my stratus (0.45 on my AWN). So the .41 matches the OHP,THP,STP seen at 220PM this afternoon off DIX.  

 

No thread at this time...  if NWS drops a watch on I84 I lmght add a thread...that seems where iso 4" reports should occur between today-12z Sat. Unlikely thread at this time. 

[uofmiami]

@wdragI-84 watch dropped

 

[hudsonvalley21]

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 305 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 NYZ067-081930- Orange NY- 305 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT... At 303 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail near New Windsor, or near Newburgh, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Newburgh, New Windsor, Gardnertown, Orange Lake, Washingtonville, Firthcliffe, Vails Gate, Balmville, and Cornwall On Hudson.

[Snowlover11]

anddd it continues

[steve392]

21 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

anddd it continues

Same, the one to your south glanced to my west with maybe 5 sprinkles on windshield. 

[Brian5671]

Great day here sunny and 74

[Stormlover74]

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Great day here sunny and 74

Same. Dry and pleasant. Made it to 78

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Perfect weather on the south shore. Deep blue sky and temps around 70. 

[steve392]

Some nasty cells blowing up.  Have one to my wnw that is scary looking on radar. 

[JerseyWx]

4 hours ago, Picard said:

That's fine, but recent forecasts haven't really been reflective of that fact.

It's gonna be dependent on where some of the cells start popping.  Had a tremendous, and I mean tremendous, 15 minute downpour here around 5pm or so.

[Stormlover74]

Cloudy and cool now with a brief shower

[wdrag]

Added an OBS thread for the OKX Flood Watch.  Am not enthused as I'd like to be, mainly due to antecedent conditions but potential does exist for spot 4" amounts se NYS, W CT... basically within the axis of most modeling heaviest rain northwest of I-95. Seems like the FFG is on the higher side but training - repeat episodes could result in spot flooding within the OKX Flood Watch.  CT RVR Flood warning is minor at this time and may not crest til the weekend. Have a good night. 

[donsutherland1]

Another system will affect the region tomorrow into Saturday before drier air returns. Showers and perhaps some heavy thunderstorms are possible. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Some of those areas with locally higher amounts could pick up in excess of 3" of rain. Following the weekend, it will turn warmer and possibly drier. Some showers will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +0.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.339 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 66.2° (3.0° above normal). That would make 2025 the 9th warmest May on record.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Perfect weather on the south shore. Deep blue sky and temps around 70. 

It was nice to go two days with blue skies and no rain.