May 2025

[SACRUS]

7 minutes ago, steve392 said:

What are nj's? 

 

[FPizz]

https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1920194735018303931?t=7VPaYVaxrwTaqUYrZpfkRQ&s=19

 

Confirmed Tornado 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

ny reservoirs are at 100.7% capacity..

they are overflowing? how does it get over 100%?

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

how can it get to 110% is the 10% extra if it overflows?

 

[Sundog]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how can it get to 110% is the 10% extra if it overflows?

 

They probably just wanted to finish labeling the graph lol

[psv88]

74 today 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower and middle 70s.

Another system could affect the region Friday into Saturday before a cooler drier air mass arrives. Showers and perhaps some heavy thunderstorms are possible. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Following the weekend, it will turn warmer and possibly drier.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +5.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.550 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 66.0° (2.8° above normal). That would tie 1986 for the 9th warmest May on record.

 

[Roger Smith]

I think with that reservoir capacity question, 100% is an optimal design level, 110% is probably a few feet above 100% and barely noticeable to a casual observer, but an overflow situation is likely to be 135% or even 150% of capacity, there's a margin for surplus capacity and managers will tolerate it especially if they foresee lower levels in the near future. Depends on local terrain and size of dam holding the reservoir in place. 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

More skeptical now about 90 degree weather for NYC during the month of May than I was a week ago. The pattern seems to remain very stormy and over the top with the heat with an active storm track now out of the Gulf of Mexico and across the southeastern states tending to back up along the east coast and often times hooking back inland at or prior to our latitude. This is a pattern which can produce way above normal rainfall in the east for our region and points south especially. There is an outside chance that we find enough sunshine on a day or two May 14th-21st but I'm doubtful at this time. I think it's going to be extremely active and wet. Some locations well to our northwest even over northwest NY State & parts of Canada may have a better chance at a day or two of the early heat.

WX/PT

 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why so many cutoffs Chris?

I miss my hot 90s summers.

 

Very impressive omega blocking pattern this month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

67 / 54 partly cloudy.   Clouds building in later today as the system in the south comes north for a rainy Fri into Sat Am with 1 - 1.5 inches of rain.  Clearing out Saturday but wouldnt rule out clouds lingering most of the day and even some scattered showers/drizzle especially eastern areas /  NYC-LI.  Mothers day looks great near or above 80 in the warm spots and likely the nicest day of the next subsequent week.  By Tue next trough cuts off down south and repeat with unsettled weather 5/13 - 5/16.  May catch a break with decent weekend following.  Beyond there ridging the week of the 20s seems tempered on the latest forecasts but still suspect we end the month warm to potentially hot.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2000)
NYC: 91 (2000)
LGA: 89 (2000)
JFK: 86 (1964)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1947)
NYC: 36 (2020)
LGA: 37 (1947)
JFK: 39 (2020)


Historical: 

 

1784 - A deadly hailstorm in South Carolina hit the town of Winnsborough. The hailstones, measuring as much as nine inches in circumference, killed several persons, and a great number of sheep, lambs and birds. (David Ludlum)

1803 - A freak spring storm produced heavy snow from southern Indiana to New England. The storm made sleighing possible in Massachusetts, but also ruined shade trees in Philadelphia. (David Ludlum)

 

1974: Record Minimum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 39 °F.

1981 - The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced its worst hailstorm of record as baseball to grapefruit size hail, accompanied by 100 mph winds, caused nearly 200 million dollars damage. Hail accumulated eight inches deep at Cedar Hill TX. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Twenty-eight cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 95 degrees at Redding CA was their fifth in a row, and the record high of 102 degrees at Hanover WA was just one degree shy of their record for May. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley spawned a total of 57 tornadoes, including 24 in Wisconsin, and a record 22 tornadoes in one day in Iowa. There were also more than 200 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Terre Bonne Mo. At Rockford IL one person was temporarily trapped inside a portable toilet toppled by thunderstorm winds gusting to 80 mph. Fortuntely, not a single person was killed in the "Mother's Day" tornado outbreak. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-one cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 28 degrees at Asheville NC and 31 degrees at Greer SC were records for May. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in northwestern and north central Kansas during the evening and night. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Brewster, and wind gusts to 92 mph south of Wakeeney. Thunderstorms over northwest Iowa deluged the town of Boone with five inches of rain flooding basements and leaving some areas under four feet of water. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

Wet in the east the next week Fri/Sat and then next Wed.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive omega blocking pattern this month.

 

this definitely belongs in the winter, not right now.

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2000)
NYC: 91 (2000)
LGA: 89 (2000)
JFK: 86 (1964)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1947)
NYC: 36 (2020)
LGA: 37 (1947)
JFK: 39 (2020)


Historical: 

 

1784 - A deadly hailstorm in South Carolina hit the town of Winnsborough. The hailstones, measuring as much as nine inches in circumference, killed several persons, and a great number of sheep, lambs and birds. (David Ludlum)

1803 - A freak spring storm produced heavy snow from southern Indiana to New England. The storm made sleighing possible in Massachusetts, but also ruined shade trees in Philadelphia. (David Ludlum)

 

1974: Record Minimum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 39 °F.

1981 - The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced its worst hailstorm of record as baseball to grapefruit size hail, accompanied by 100 mph winds, caused nearly 200 million dollars damage. Hail accumulated eight inches deep at Cedar Hill TX. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Twenty-eight cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 95 degrees at Redding CA was their fifth in a row, and the record high of 102 degrees at Hanover WA was just one degree shy of their record for May. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley spawned a total of 57 tornadoes, including 24 in Wisconsin, and a record 22 tornadoes in one day in Iowa. There were also more than 200 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Terre Bonne Mo. At Rockford IL one person was temporarily trapped inside a portable toilet toppled by thunderstorm winds gusting to 80 mph. Fortuntely, not a single person was killed in the "Mother's Day" tornado outbreak. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-one cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 28 degrees at Asheville NC and 31 degrees at Greer SC were records for May. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in northwestern and north central Kansas during the evening and night. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Brewster, and wind gusts to 92 mph south of Wakeeney. Thunderstorms over northwest Iowa deluged the town of Boone with five inches of rain flooding basements and leaving some areas under four feet of water. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1803 - A freak spring storm produced heavy snow from southern Indiana to New England. The storm made sleighing possible in Massachusetts, but also ruined shade trees in Philadelphia. (David Ludlum)

 

wow this must have had some heavy totals in NYC.

a few days ago there was another storm like this in 1812.

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2000)
NYC: 91 (2000)
LGA: 89 (2000)
JFK: 86 (1964)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1947)
NYC: 36 (2020)
LGA: 37 (1947)
JFK: 39 (2020)


Historical: 

 

1784 - A deadly hailstorm in South Carolina hit the town of Winnsborough. The hailstones, measuring as much as nine inches in circumference, killed several persons, and a great number of sheep, lambs and birds. (David Ludlum)

1803 - A freak spring storm produced heavy snow from southern Indiana to New England. The storm made sleighing possible in Massachusetts, but also ruined shade trees in Philadelphia. (David Ludlum)

 

1974: Record Minimum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 39 °F.

1981 - The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced its worst hailstorm of record as baseball to grapefruit size hail, accompanied by 100 mph winds, caused nearly 200 million dollars damage. Hail accumulated eight inches deep at Cedar Hill TX. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Twenty-eight cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 95 degrees at Redding CA was their fifth in a row, and the record high of 102 degrees at Hanover WA was just one degree shy of their record for May. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley spawned a total of 57 tornadoes, including 24 in Wisconsin, and a record 22 tornadoes in one day in Iowa. There were also more than 200 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Terre Bonne Mo. At Rockford IL one person was temporarily trapped inside a portable toilet toppled by thunderstorm winds gusting to 80 mph. Fortuntely, not a single person was killed in the "Mother's Day" tornado outbreak. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-one cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 28 degrees at Asheville NC and 31 degrees at Greer SC were records for May. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in northwestern and north central Kansas during the evening and night. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Brewster, and wind gusts to 92 mph south of Wakeeney. Thunderstorms over northwest Iowa deluged the town of Boone with five inches of rain flooding basements and leaving some areas under four feet of water. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1784 - A deadly hailstorm in South Carolina hit the town of Winnsborough. The hailstones, measuring as much as nine inches in circumference, killed several persons, and a great number of sheep, lambs and birds. (David Ludlum)

 

9 inches? that's larger than the current record holder!

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this definitely belongs in the winter, not right now.

Unfortunately, the Pacific Jet has been too strong during the winter. So as the gradient weakens further into the spring, the weaker jet isn’t able to act as a kicker. So these closed lows get stuck in place when people are ready for sunny spring weather. But the good news is that the northern edge of the drought areas to the north of I-80 and into CT has improved with the soaking rains there in recent days. 
 

 

[Picard]

I remain skeptical of calls for a wetter pattern.  While I agree that there are things that may point to it, often times we see much of the precipitation off to the north and west or hook around and out of the area entirely.  This has been a trend for month after month now.  The latest drought monitor is out, which shows modest improvements in the more severe drought areas for NJ, but much of the more pronounced improvements in the northeast are all over central PA as well as central and western NY State.  

[SACRUS]

 

Through the first week

 

Temp Dep:

 

NYC: +4.8
LGA: +5.4
JFK: +5.5
TTN: +6.9
EWR: +6.9
 

[forkyfork]

once again the euro is the furthest sw and the wettest

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Through the first week

 

Temp Dep:

 

NYC: +4.8
LGA: +5.4
JFK: +5.5
TTN: +6.9
EWR: +6.9
 

Top 5 warmth across the area for the 1st week of May.

EWR…5th warmest

LGA….5th

HPN….5th

JFK….5th

ISP…..4th

BDR….5th

PHI…..5th

 

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the Pacific Jet has been too strong during the winter. So as the gradient weakens further into the spring, the weaker jet isn’t able to act as a kicker. So these closed lows get stuck in place when people are ready for sunny spring weather. But the good news is that the northern edge of the drought areas to the north of I-80 and into CT has improved with the soaking rains there in recent days. 
 

 

I’m fine with getting the rain now since we often dry out so much in the summer. Build up the groundwater now and have it as a buffer when almost inevitably on LI we can go weeks without appreciable rain from June-Sept. 

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

once again the euro is the furthest sw and the wettest

It'll bust...3K nam is much faster and over by late afternoon

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m fine with getting the rain now since we often dry out so much in the summer. Build up the groundwater now and have it as a buffer when almost inevitably on LI we can go weeks without appreciable rain from June-Sept. 

We have seen a nice improvement since last fall as it’s tough to keep a really dry pattern going in this much wetter climate. 
 

 

[Stormlover74]

Probably a half to 3/4" with more east west and north

[allgame830]

Dumb question where the heck is this rain coming from. Closest rain is well severs hundreds of miles away. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Dumb question where the heck is this rain coming from. Closest rain is well severs hundreds of miles away. 

2 parts-the front slipping down from the north gets activated later today but that activity is mainly N and W of the city.    Then a wave/storm forms on the stalled front and moves up late tonight/tomorrow-ending late day/early eve

[Dark Star]

21 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Right about where we should be.

[Picard]

1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Dumb question where the heck is this rain coming from. Closest rain is well severs hundreds of miles away. 

Possibly nowhere for some.  It all depends on where the storms pop up and any banding might set up.  These are tricky forecasts and modeling hasn't been great.  I'd be skeptical of calls for area-wide 2" the next couple of days, but that's just my non-expert opinion.

Storms are firing off in their favorite spots out to the N and W.  For now that's where they'll stay - they could sneak a little further into the area later on.  We'll see.  

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Picard said:

Possibly nowhere for some.  It all depends on where the storms pop up and any banding might set up.  These are tricky forecasts and modeling hasn't been great.  I'd be skeptical of calls for area-wide 2" the next couple of days, but that's just my non-expert opinion.

Storms are firing off in their favorite spots out to the N and W.  For now that's where they'll stay - they could sneak a little further into the area later on.  We'll see.  

I'm skeptical of upton's 70-90% chance of rain at least through tonight