May 2025

[SACRUS]

7 minutes ago, steve392 said:

What are nj's? 

 

[FPizz]

https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1920194735018303931?t=7VPaYVaxrwTaqUYrZpfkRQ&s=19

 

Confirmed Tornado 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

ny reservoirs are at 100.7% capacity..

they are overflowing? how does it get over 100%?

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

how can it get to 110% is the 10% extra if it overflows?

 

[Sundog]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how can it get to 110% is the 10% extra if it overflows?

 

They probably just wanted to finish labeling the graph lol

[psv88]

74 today 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower and middle 70s.

Another system could affect the region Friday into Saturday before a cooler drier air mass arrives. Showers and perhaps some heavy thunderstorms are possible. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Following the weekend, it will turn warmer and possibly drier.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +5.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.550 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 66.0° (2.8° above normal). That would tie 1986 for the 9th warmest May on record.

 

[Roger Smith]

I think with that reservoir capacity question, 100% is an optimal design level, 110% is probably a few feet above 100% and barely noticeable to a casual observer, but an overflow situation is likely to be 135% or even 150% of capacity, there's a margin for surplus capacity and managers will tolerate it especially if they foresee lower levels in the near future. Depends on local terrain and size of dam holding the reservoir in place. 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

More skeptical now about 90 degree weather for NYC during the month of May than I was a week ago. The pattern seems to remain very stormy and over the top with the heat with an active storm track now out of the Gulf of Mexico and across the southeastern states tending to back up along the east coast and often times hooking back inland at or prior to our latitude. This is a pattern which can produce way above normal rainfall in the east for our region and points south especially. There is an outside chance that we find enough sunshine on a day or two May 14th-21st but I'm doubtful at this time. I think it's going to be extremely active and wet. Some locations well to our northwest even over northwest NY State & parts of Canada may have a better chance at a day or two of the early heat.

WX/PT

 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why so many cutoffs Chris?

I miss my hot 90s summers.

 

Very impressive omega blocking pattern this month.