TheClimateChanger Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Uncertainty about the February 15-28 period has increased. What is fairly certain are the following: 1) Substantial warmup in the Plains States 2) Brief cool shot to the Southwest and then a return of warmer conditions. The cool shot likely won't be sufficient to preclude Phoenix from experiencing its warmest winter on record. Moderation is likely to occur across the Great Lakes Region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast during and after February 10th. What happens beyond 7-10 days is where things become increasingly uncertain. The CFSv2 favors a continuation of above normal temperatures through the end of February. The ECMWF weeklies bring colder conditions for the February 23-28 period. CFSv2: ECMWF Weeklies: Even as wave lengths are shortening, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) could hold the key. The EPS and GEFS agree on the development of a WPO-, EPO+, PNA- pattern. During such patterns, conditions in the East tend to be much colder when the AO is negative than when it is positive. New York City provides a good example. Since 1980, WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO- patterns have seen a mean February 15-28 temperature of 33.9°. In contrast, WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO+ patterns have seen a mean temperature of 44.5°. So, if the AO goes positive, the warmth from the Plains will likely come eastward. WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO- Patterns: WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO+ Patterns: The latest AO forecast is below. A near neutral AO would favor near seasonable to somewhat above seasonable temperatures in the East. Historic experience following the breakdown of long-duration (25-day or longer) AO- regimes that began in February favors AO variability following the breakdown of such regimes. Only 1986 saw a prolonged and strong AO+ regime develop. As noted previously, due to shortening wave lengths, the consensus outcome of a resumption of above normal temperatures in the Southwest to close out February is the base case. Thanks for the update, Don. Wild start to February. Almost exactly "normal" through the first 4 days, but actually 20F warmer than normal in the northern Rockies and 20F colder than normal in parts of the Eastern U.S. Very spring-like 73F in Rapid City, SD yesterday (2F shy of February monthly record high), while the deep freeze continues in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Wow thanks for posting this. I knew it was cold but didn't realize the impressive nature of it. @bluewave frequently mentions that cold anamolies are short in duration. This is the opposite. January 15 - February 4 is the coldest 3 weeks of the year on avg to begin with. 2026 now ranks 3rd coldest for that 3 week stretch at Detroit in 153 years of record. Only 1918 & 1963 were colder. Pittsburgh also ranks 3rd in 152 years of record. Cleveland 4th in 156 years. Toledo 6th in 153 years. And even NYC 17th in 158 years. @FPizz @mitchnick @MJO812 Some were saying the cold wasn’t impressive but that looks impressive to me. It might not match the warm anomalies out west with a warmer world but to downplay the cold the last three weeks isn’t being honest. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PositiveEPOEnjoyer Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/5/2026 at 9:47 AM, MJO812 said: February doesnt look warm at all for the east. Same thing has been happening all winter. Looks warm in the east in the long range only to correct colder. This doesn’t look too promising for cold temps to stick around in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 This doesn’t look too promising for cold temps to stick around in the east.Don’t even bother. Not worth it. He’s going to say that the experts with Master’s and Ph.D. Degrees in Meteorology and Climatology over at the CPC are dead wrong and don’t know what they’re talking about….. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PositiveEPOEnjoyer Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, NyWxGuy said: That’s the ridging we’ve been seeing centered over the plains since December. But we’ve also had a -NAO since then to keep us colder than normal. If we lose the -NAO, we’ll get warm pretty fast. West coast troughing only works when you have cross polar flow. Otherwise with a ridge in the east, those western troughs will just cut -NAO tends to be a stronger cold signal for the west in Feb. Of course it can still have implications in the east, but it wouldn't be as notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PositiveEPOEnjoyer Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 hours ago, roardog said: Some were saying the cold wasn’t impressive but that looks impressive to me. It might not match the warm anomalies out west with a warmer world but to downplay the cold the last three weeks isn’t being honest. who's downplaying the cold? It was a notable two week stretch of cold, but there have been plenty of similarly cold (or colder) stretches in the CONUS over the years (not just past, recent as well). It's not just the anomalies, but also the duration of the warmth out west which has been more impressive than any cold in the east this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said: -NAO tends to be a stronger cold signal for the west in Feb. Of course it can still have implications in the east, but it wouldn't be as notable. What?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said: there have been plenty of similarly cold (or colder) stretches in the CONUS over the years (not just past, recent as well). Yeah. Third coldest in 152 years happens all the time. Yes, you’re downplaying it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 On 2/6/2026 at 7:16 AM, michsnowfreak said: Wow thanks for posting this. I knew it was cold but didn't realize the impressive nature of it. @bluewave frequently mentions that cold anamolies are short in duration. This is the opposite. January 15 - February 4 is the coldest 3 weeks of the year on avg to begin with. 2026 now ranks 3rd coldest for that 3 week stretch at Detroit in 153 years of record. Only 1918 & 1963 were colder. Pittsburgh also ranks 3rd in 152 years of record. Cleveland 4th in 156 years. Toledo 6th in 153 years. And even NYC 17th in 158 years. @FPizz @mitchnick @MJO812 On 2/6/2026 at 7:16 AM, michsnowfreak said: @FPizz @mitchnick @MJO812 Getting a top 10 coldest for a week to a month across a region or adjacent regions is impressive cold but is considered a shorter duration and smaller geographic footprint. My discussions have been focused on seasonal top 10 cold which spans the 3 winter months of December to February. This hasn’t happened on a national level since the 1970s. These shorter duration Arctic outbreaks ranking in the top 10 and over a smaller geographic region than the past have been a common feature of our climate in recent years. Think back to the regional cold records during February 2021. In the old days these regional monthly top 10s would extend to seasonal which hasn’t happened in recent years. Plus the magnitude of the warmth across the Plains in December 2021 was greater than the cold in February 2021. None of the cold records so far in the East rank as cold as the warm records in the West have for geographic extent, magnitude, or duration. Since the Northern Hemisphere cold pool is so much smaller than it used to be.This winter has been among the warmest on record for the Northern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Getting a top 10 coldest for a week to a month across a region or adjacent regions is impressive cold but is considered a shorter duration and smaller geographic footprint. My discussions have been focused on seasonal top 10 cold which spans the 3 winter months of December to February. This hasn’t happened on a national level since the 1970s. These shorter duration Arctic outbreaks ranking in the top 10 and over a smaller geographic region than the past have been a common feature of our climate in recent years. Think back to the regional cold records during February 2021. In the old days these regional monthly top 10s would extend to seasonal which hasn’t happened in recent years. Plus the magnitude of the warmth across the Plains in December 2021 was greater than the cold in February 2021. None of the cold records so far in the East rank as cold as the warm records in the West have for geographic extent, magnitude, or duration. Since the Northern Hemisphere cold pool is so much smaller than it used to be.This winter has been among the warmest on record for the Northern Hemisphere. So??? Winter's not over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Phases 4 through 7 are warm in Feb. Need to get this back to 8 quick considering the lag. Moves from phase 2 to 4 in three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 @donsutherland1 you mentioned the importance of a negative AO. Looks like it may be dropping towards the end.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I will be honest I do not understand the exact effects from this other than we want it to drop to get blocking. While not dropping below zero (reversal), it does drop below the Middle red line. Does this aid in blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I will be honest I do not understand the exact effects from this other than we want it to drop to get blocking. While not dropping below zero (reversal), it does drop below the Middle red line. Does this aid in blocking? Yes, a weaker pv supports blocking. It doesn’t have to reverse for blocking to suddenly appear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 On 2/6/2026 at 10:15 AM, donsutherland1 said: Uncertainty about the February 15-28 period has increased. What is fairly certain are the following: 1) Substantial warmup in the Plains States 2) Brief cool shot to the Southwest and then a return of warmer conditions. The cool shot likely won't be sufficient to preclude Phoenix from experiencing its warmest winter on record. Moderation is likely to occur across the Great Lakes Region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast during and after February 10th. What happens beyond 7-10 days is where things become increasingly uncertain. The CFSv2 favors a continuation of above normal temperatures through the end of February. The ECMWF weeklies bring colder conditions for the February 23-28 period. CFSv2: ECMWF Weeklies: Even as wave lengths are shortening, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) could hold the key. The EPS and GEFS agree on the development of a WPO-, EPO+, PNA- pattern. During such patterns, conditions in the East tend to be much colder when the AO is negative than when it is positive. New York City provides a good example. Since 1980, WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO- patterns have seen a mean February 15-28 temperature of 33.9°. In contrast, WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO+ patterns have seen a mean temperature of 44.5°. So, if the AO goes positive, the warmth from the Plains will likely come eastward. WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO- Patterns: WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO+ Patterns: The latest AO forecast is below. A near neutral AO would favor near seasonable to somewhat above seasonable temperatures in the East. Historic experience following the breakdown of long-duration (25-day or longer) AO- regimes that began in February favors AO variability following the breakdown of such regimes. Only 1986 saw a prolonged and strong AO+ regime develop. As noted previously, due to shortening wave lengths, the consensus outcome of a resumption of above normal temperatures in the Southwest to close out February is the base case. Don, does the same uncertainty exist for the start of March? How about in the South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Don, does the same uncertainty exist for the start of March? How about in the South? This is how I see March playing out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 15 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Don, does the same uncertainty exist for the start of March? How about in the South? It continues into the start of March. The Southeast could have the lowest chance of seeing a return to cold conditions. The Middle Atlantic could be a battleground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It continues into the start of March. The Southeast could have the lowest chance of seeing a return to cold conditions. The Middle Atlantic could be a battleground. The further time goes on, the more likely of warmer conditions in the East. A lot of the recent cold winters (2010, 2011, and 2015 are perfect examples) have had very warm spring months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 It's funny watching DT perplexed at how the guidance keeps whiffing on the MJO getting into phase 8 with any purpose...he keeps buying it every time. You think one of these seasons he would wrap his mind around the fact that there isn't some metaphorical switch that is hit when the weekly anomaly in ENSO region 3.4 gets above -0.5C...he always spews that same nonsense about La Niña dying, blah, blah, blah. I mean...you do this for a living, and I advertised the fact that guidance would do this, and why last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 This looks warm in the East upcoming For what ever reason,the CFS shows this tropical forcing with Rossby/Kelvin Waves into the WP/MC,but its been over amplifying this since fall,but its still a warm look, Seems like to me this is fixing to become a active severe threat up past as we get further alonginto,FEB,with the MJO,GAAM,they both seem to be coupled rather well right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's funny watching DT perplexed at how the guidance keeps whiffing on the MJO getting into phase 8 with any purpose...he keeps buying it every time. You think one of these seasons he would wrap his mind around the fact that there isn't some metaphorical switch that is hit when the weekly anomaly in ENSO region 3.4 gets above -0.5C...he always spews that same nonsense about La Niña dying, blah, blah, blah. I mean...you do this for a living, and I advertised the fact that guidance would do this, and why last fall. BAM does the same shit,its all click bait,give me your money 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 22 hours ago, NyWxGuy said: The cold temperature anomalies are impressive for the Eastern US, but when you take a holistic look at the United States as a whole, the cold temperature anomalies are much less impressive. Especially when you have a snowless Rocky Mountains and spring like weather up into southern Canada. That’s the real story here. December and January finished around the 7th warmest for the CONUS. So the warmth out West has been much more impressive than the cold in the East. The shorter duration last 2 to 3 weeks had top 5 and top 10 cold for climate districts in the East for January 20th to February 7th. But since the start of the winter the climate districts and the larger regions haven’t been nearly as cold. With how warm our winters have become since 2015-2016, it makes this winter feel much colder since people quickly normalize their recent 3-7 year climate. Right before the big global and national temperature jump in 2015-2016, the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest regions were able to sustain a top 10 cold pattern for the entire winter of 2013-2014. But that cold pool was less expansive than the late 1970s so nationally we couldn’t rank in the top 10 or even top 20. It finished 33rd coldest for the CONUS. We can see how the record warmth wasn’t present in the West that winter. Prior to the multiple temperature increases since the early 1980s, the entire CONUS had its last top 10 coldest winters from coast to coast with no extreme warmth anywhere in the CONUS in the late 1970s. With 1978-1979 ranking as the coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS. https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3me3dxzzakc23 social Follow The Dec-Jan period was the 7th warmest for the Contiguous U.S. since 1940. 21.1% had the warmest Dec-Jan during that period. 0.0% had the coldest Dec-Jan; 0.0% had the 2nd coldest, 0.0% had the 3rd coldest, .... all the way thru the 13th coldest. 9:32 PM · Feb 4, 2026 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 hours ago, jaxjagman said: BAM does the same shit,its all click bait,give me your money BAMWX does this every winter, from November through March. If you noticed, once it became obvious that the arctic cold was going to moderate this month, they immediately started to hype a cold and snowy March. They know damn well how to keep the weenie’s clicks and subscription money flooding in and they know they have one more month left (March) to hype cold and snow and laugh all the way to the bank….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Phase 4 by the 22nd. Hopefully enough time left on the clock for another snowy period. Worst case is its too late but we end up with yet another cold and rainy spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Looking at the below would think blocking would come back soon. However, I do not see this happening per 2nd snip.....not lining up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looking at the below would think blocking would come back soon. However, I do not see this happening per 2nd snip.....not lining up. My thoughts on March have not changed one iota yet. As of now, I don’t think March is going to be another below normal month for cold. We have been extremely lucky to see the last 4 months in a row (since November) feature solidly below normal cold. A 5th? Color me extremely skeptical right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Phase 4 by the 22nd. Hopefully enough time left on the clock for another snowy period. Worst case is its too late but we end up with yet another cold and rainy spring. It looks like we're going to be in phase 5 to end February and phase 6 to begin March. Odds favor a warm March, and probably a warm April. If there is going to be a cold and rainy month in the spring, it will be May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said: It looks like we're going to be in phase 5 to end February and phase 6 to begin March. Odds favor a warm March, and probably a warm April. If there is going to be a cold and rainy month in the spring, it will be May. I have a feeling it will start getting chillier by the last week of March. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: My thoughts on March have not changed one iota yet. As of now, I don’t think March is going to be another below normal month for cold. We have been extremely lucky to see the last 4 months in a row (since November) feature solidly below normal cold. A 5th? Color me extremely skeptical right now The EPS has some semblance of a weak PV which would align with the zonal graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, EastonSN+ said: The EPS has some semblance of a weak PV which would align with the zonal graph. Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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