2025-2026 ENSO

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Don, does the same uncertainty exist for the start of March? How about in the South?

It continues into the start of March. The Southeast could have the lowest chance of seeing a return to cold conditions. The Middle Atlantic could be a battleground. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It continues into the start of March. The Southeast could have the lowest chance of seeing a return to cold conditions. The Middle Atlantic could be a battleground. 

The further time goes on, the more likely of warmer conditions in the East. A lot of the recent cold winters (2010, 2011, and 2015 are perfect examples) have had very warm spring months.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's funny watching DT perplexed at how the guidance keeps whiffing on the MJO getting into phase 8 with any purpose...he keeps buying it every time. You think one of these seasons he would wrap his mind around the fact that there isn't some metaphorical switch that is hit when the weekly anomaly in ENSO region 3.4 gets above -0.5C...he always spews that same nonsense about La Niña dying, blah, blah, blah. I mean...you do this for a living, and I advertised the fact that guidance would do this, and why last fall.

[jaxjagman]

This looks warm in the East upcoming

For what ever reason,the CFS shows this tropical forcing with Rossby/Kelvin Waves into the WP/MC,but its been over amplifying this since fall,but its still a warm look,

Seems like to me this is fixing to become a active severe threat up past as we get further alonginto,FEB,with the MJO,GAAM,they both seem to be coupled rather well right now

[jaxjagman]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's funny watching DT perplexed at how the guidance keeps whiffing on the MJO getting into phase 8 with any purpose...he keeps buying it every time. You think one of these seasons he would wrap his mind around the fact that there isn't some metaphorical switch that is hit when the weekly anomaly in ENSO region 3.4 gets above -0.5C...he always spews that same nonsense about La Niña dying, blah, blah, blah. I mean...you do this for a living, and I advertised the fact that guidance would do this, and why last fall.

BAM does the same shit,its all click bait,give me your money

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

The cold temperature anomalies are impressive for the Eastern US, but when you take a holistic look at the United States as a whole, the cold temperature anomalies are much less impressive. Especially when you have a snowless Rocky Mountains and spring like weather up into southern Canada. That’s the real story here.

December and January finished around the 7th warmest for the CONUS. So the warmth out West has been much more impressive than the cold in the East.

The shorter duration last 2 to 3 weeks had top 5 and top 10 cold for climate districts in the East for January 20th to February 7th. But since the start of the winter the climate districts and the larger regions haven’t been nearly as cold.

With how warm our winters have become since 2015-2016, it makes this winter feel much colder since people quickly normalize their recent 3-7 year climate.

Right before the big global and national temperature jump in 2015-2016, the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest regions were able to sustain a top 10 cold pattern for the entire winter of 2013-2014. But that cold pool was less expansive than the late 1970s so nationally we couldn’t rank in the top 10 or even top 20. It finished 33rd coldest for the CONUS.

We can see how the record warmth wasn’t present in the West that winter. Prior to the multiple temperature increases since the early 1980s, the entire CONUS had its last top 10 coldest winters from coast to coast with no extreme warmth anywhere in the CONUS in the late 1970s. With 1978-1979 ranking as the coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS.

 

https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3me3dxzzakc23

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The Dec-Jan period was the 7th warmest for the Contiguous U.S. since 1940. 21.1% had the warmest Dec-Jan during that period. 0.0% had the coldest Dec-Jan; 0.0% had the 2nd coldest, 0.0% had the 3rd coldest, .... all the way thru the 13th coldest.

 

9:32 PM · Feb 4, 2026

 

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

BAM does the same shit,its all click bait,give me your money

BAMWX does this every winter, from November through March. If you noticed, once it became obvious that the arctic cold was going to moderate this month, they immediately started to hype a cold and snowy March. They know damn well how to keep the weenie’s clicks and subscription money flooding in and they know they have one more month left (March) to hype cold and snow and laugh all the way to the bank…..

[NyWxGuy]

More record warm temps coming to plains and central US this week. Some parts will be nearly 30 above average. Our cold and snow in Midwest and east coast has been relatively unique compared to rest of US that continues to torch their way through this winter. Parts of the Rockies up to southern Canada are nearly snowless. Takes a very anomalous warm period to make that happen. Seems similar to 2015 and 2014 where we had great winters here but they were running out of snow and water out west. Except those winters were a lot snowier in the east than this year is. Either way, another winter heatwave on the way for the plains