2025-2026 ENSO

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Don, does the same uncertainty exist for the start of March? How about in the South?

It continues into the start of March. The Southeast could have the lowest chance of seeing a return to cold conditions. The Middle Atlantic could be a battleground. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It continues into the start of March. The Southeast could have the lowest chance of seeing a return to cold conditions. The Middle Atlantic could be a battleground. 

The further time goes on, the more likely of warmer conditions in the East. A lot of the recent cold winters (2010, 2011, and 2015 are perfect examples) have had very warm spring months.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's funny watching DT perplexed at how the guidance keeps whiffing on the MJO getting into phase 8 with any purpose...he keeps buying it every time. You think one of these seasons he would wrap his mind around the fact that there isn't some metaphorical switch that is hit when the weekly anomaly in ENSO region 3.4 gets above -0.5C...he always spews that same nonsense about La Niña dying, blah, blah, blah. I mean...you do this for a living, and I advertised the fact that guidance would do this, and why last fall.

[jaxjagman]

This looks warm in the East upcoming

For what ever reason,the CFS shows this tropical forcing with Rossby/Kelvin Waves into the WP/MC,but its been over amplifying this since fall,but its still a warm look,

Seems like to me this is fixing to become a active severe threat up past as we get further alonginto,FEB,with the MJO,GAAM,they both seem to be coupled rather well right now

[jaxjagman]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's funny watching DT perplexed at how the guidance keeps whiffing on the MJO getting into phase 8 with any purpose...he keeps buying it every time. You think one of these seasons he would wrap his mind around the fact that there isn't some metaphorical switch that is hit when the weekly anomaly in ENSO region 3.4 gets above -0.5C...he always spews that same nonsense about La Niña dying, blah, blah, blah. I mean...you do this for a living, and I advertised the fact that guidance would do this, and why last fall.

BAM does the same shit,its all click bait,give me your money