2025-2026 ENSO

[jbenedet]

That read with clear - NAO says “MJO 8”

Or at least a lot more 8 than 7…to put it crudely…

Interesting…

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Get ready for February

[so_whats_happening]

Pretty solid depiction

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

Pretty solid depiction

Phase 8 in February starts to get ok but phase 1 in February in Nina is a large warm up. If we have more of a neutral state rather than La Nina by then with a passage through phase 1 in February it is a bit more muted of a warm up. Looks fun though coming up for at least the next maybe 10 days.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

Through January 22nd, Phoenix is experiencing its warmest winter on record. However, numerous locations in the Great Lakes and East, along with Alaska, are seeing their coldest winter in at least several years. For Alaska, it's been the coldest winter to date in decades.

Select mean temperatures for December 1-January 22:

Albany: 26.5° (coldest since 2017-18)
Anchorage: 12.2° (coldest since 1981-82)
Boston: 31.8° (coldest since 2017-18)
Burlington: 24.0° (coldest since 2018-19)
Caribou: 14.9° (coldest since 2018-19)
Concord: 24.1° (coldest since 2017-18)
Detroit: 26.9° (coldest since 2017-18)
Fairbanks: -20.8° (coldest since 1968-69)
Juneau: 22.2° (coldest since 1981-82)
Milwaukee: 24.6° (coldest since 2017-18)
Minneapolis: 19.0° (coldest since 2021-22)
New York City: 34.5° (coldest since 2017-18)
Portland, ME: 25.2° (coldest since 2017-18)
Washington, DC: 37.7° (coldest since 2017-18)

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through January 22nd, Phoenix is experiencing its warmest winter on record. However, numerous locations in the Great Lakes and East, along with Alaska, are seeing their coldest winter in at least several years. For Alaska, it's been the coldest winter to date in decades.

Select mean temperatures for December 1-January 22:

Albany: 26.5° (coldest since 2017-18)
Anchorage: 12.2° (coldest since 1981-82)
Boston: 31.8° (coldest since 2017-18)
Burlington: 24.0° (coldest since 2018-19)
Caribou: 14.9° (coldest since 2018-19)
Concord: 24.1° (coldest since 2017-18)
Detroit: 26.9° (coldest since 2017-18)
Fairbanks: -20.8° (coldest since 1968-69)
Juneau: 22.2° (coldest since 1981-82)
Milwaukee: 24.6° (coldest since 2017-18)
Minneapolis: 19.0° (coldest since 2021-22)
New York City: 34.5° (coldest since 2017-18)
Portland, ME: 25.2° (coldest since 2017-18)
Washington, DC: 37.7° (coldest since 2017-18)

Cold anamolies will continue to grow. Its like the tundra outside.

[raindancewx]

Warmest area of the country remains Plains/Northwest this month, with Montana running +10 in many spots. Locally we're down to +6F or so, but should drop closer to normal starting tommorow. Cold has reasserted itself over the East & Plains, and I still expect gradual retrogression to the West as we approach March. I thought January would be pretty cold in a lot of the East. No longer looks like a terrible call as cold continues to dump into the US.

Notice any resemblance to the last week? Like I say, I'm annoyed it took a week longer than I expected, but hey we got there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here it comes....you heard it here first last fall.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-stratospheric-warming-february-2026-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 

[LakePaste25]

The low temperature this morning at ERI dropped down to -7. This is the coldest temperature recorded since February 2015.

[snowman19]

21 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Phase 8 in February starts to get ok but phase 1 in February in Nina is a large warm up. If we have more of a neutral state rather than La Nina by then with a passage through phase 1 in February it is a bit more muted of a warm up. Looks fun though coming up for at least the next maybe 10 days.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

@so_whats_happening What are your thoughts on the possible SSW/SPV split next month? Do you think we see a 2018 response or something more muted/different? 

[michsnowfreak]

-10° at Detroit is the coldest since 2019. Ann Arbor, the usual cold spot with its bowl effect, hit -21°! Flint hit a record -24°.

This is not my pic but its an incredible shot of sunrise at -10° over the Detroit River in Wyandotte.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@so_whats_happening What are your thoughts on the possible SSW/SPV split next month? Do you think we see a 2018 response or something more muted/different? 

Probably more muted. I highly doubt we see a record February warm, then a record snowy March, like we did in 2018. Both months will probably be much closer to normal, and I wouldn't be surprised if one actually had a +5 departure.

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@so_whats_happening What are your thoughts on the possible SSW/SPV split next month? Do you think we see a 2018 response or something more muted/different? 

It does have flares of 2018 progression via breaking down the SPV but no two years tend to be alike as for surface/500mb progression. Should have a better idea as we close out the month how things should translate in the mean time we have some fun patterns evolving that need to be watched. If I had to take an early guess I would say we run the risk of continuation of the current pattern as the the downwelling, were it to occur, would just enhance the already lower atmosphere -AO pattern. 

That early wave 1 warming did quite a bit to help as bluewave pointed out while it would be nice to extend this cold/snow pattern i'm fine with winter breaking down around presidents day. lol

After tomorrows snow (8-14" looks to be the range for us) we should be less than 10" away from hitting average with some solid potential trying to show up. Let's see what happens as the cold starts to relax a bit.

[so_whats_happening]

Surface reflection of the Nina is starting to dwindle a bit more quickly so I would assume the idea is the influence as we get into February will be more muted in time. I would like to see just how much of the waters with depth east of Japan have been chewed up this year still have and will probably continue to have the -PDO tongue for quite some time. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

[EastonSN+]

On 1/23/2026 at 10:35 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Phase 8 in February starts to get ok but phase 1 in February in Nina is a large warm up. If we have more of a neutral state rather than La Nina by then with a passage through phase 1 in February it is a bit more muted of a warm up. Looks fun though coming up for at least the next maybe 10 days.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Interesting did not know phase 1 was warm. We get there by early Feb.

[raindancewx]

This was a horribly forecast storm for me. Five days out we weren't supposed to see any rain or snow. Then heavy snow all night Friday to all night Saturday. Then rain Friday and snow Saturday. It ended up being rain very late Friday into Saturday, with snow starting just before 11:00 pm on Sat and lasting into Sunday morning. Still, it looks like the city got 1-3 inches of the snow. Our Oklahomies did pretty well too -

With the snows included today, Albuquerque is nearing 1.20 inches of precipitation for January - near an average Dec-Feb for winter - but in 25 days. Dec-Feb is over 1.4" already, and long-term average is 1.3". Activity in the NE Pacific implies more storminess for the SW US later in February.

January 2026 is currently the third wettest January in the last 100 years (1926-2025 basis), and 5th wettest January on record (since 1893). Wettest January since 2005. Also the top 25 wettest Nov-Jan locally since 1893 at ~1.95" (mean is ~1.3"). 

A lot of the eastern US is now on the verge of flipping to finishing January cold which is in line with my outlook from October. We'll see if we get there. Locally, this is easily the warmest winter on date so far (+5F warmer than the prior warmest Dec 1-Jan 24) - but snow is not really meaningfully below average with the extra moisture. We're at ~4" instead of ~4.5". Most of the ski-resorts have 1-3 foot bases now as well.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Interesting did not know phase 1 was warm. We get there by early Feb.

None of the models show warmth for the foreseeable future. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, MJO812 said:

None of the models show warmth for the foreseeable future. 

Its more about getting a storm.

[schoeppeya]

Where'd @snowman19 disappear to

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Interesting did not know phase 1 was warm. We get there by early Feb.

That’s interesting about phase 1 during La Niña supposedly being relatively warm based on that source. If I get time (it’s a bit time consuming but I’m interested enough to possibly check it), I’d like to assess this based on actual temps for phase 1 in La Niña. I may check Baltimore.

 For all ENSO combined in Feb, it isn’t at all warm in the E US overall:

 

@so_whats_happening

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, schoeppeya said:

Where'd @snowman19 disappear to

Your sister’s house

[Cobalt]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Your sister’s house

Looks like you're getting quite the prolific storm up there. Would love to hear your observations, enjoy it!

[MJO812]

Weeklies dont want to give up on the cold pattern 

[EasternLI]

Increasingly -AO with a possible vortex split up above?... Sounds like a plan 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Increasingly -AO with a possible vortex split up above?... Sounds like a plan 

Ray  40/70 alluded to this

 

[EasternLI]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ray  40/70 alluded to this

 

Yup, and I think he's going to be right. 

[EastonSN+]

28 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yup, and I think he's going to be right. 

Don mentioned we want an RNA as we go through February hope it lines up.

[BlizzardWx]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This was a horribly forecast storm for me. Five days out we weren't supposed to see any rain or snow. Then heavy snow all night Friday to all night Saturday. Then rain Friday and snow Saturday. It ended up being rain very late Friday into Saturday, with snow starting just before 11:00 pm on Sat and lasting into Sunday morning. Still, it looks like the city got 1-3 inches of the snow. Our Oklahomies did pretty well too -

With the snows included today, Albuquerque is nearing 1.20 inches of precipitation for January - near an average Dec-Feb for winter - but in 25 days. Dec-Feb is over 1.4" already, and long-term average is 1.3". Activity in the NE Pacific implies more storminess for the SW US later in February.

January 2026 is currently the third wettest January in the last 100 years (1926-2025 basis), and 5th wettest January on record (since 1893). Wettest January since 2005. Also the top 25 wettest Nov-Jan locally since 1893 at ~1.95" (mean is ~1.3"). 

A lot of the eastern US is now on the verge of flipping to finishing January cold which is in line with my outlook from October. We'll see if we get there. Locally, this is easily the warmest winter on date so far (+5F warmer than the prior warmest Dec 1-Jan 24) - but snow is not really meaningfully below average with the extra moisture. We're at ~4" instead of ~4.5". Most of the ski-resorts have 1-3 foot bases now as well.

We did do well! Models were trying to show 20+ inches just 24 hours out and I ended up with 7", but that is still a large storm for this part of the country. I think officially TUL had 8.7" spread over 3 days. 

[EasternLI]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Don mentioned we want an RNA as we go through February hope it lines up.

Depends. How's it oriented? What else is going on with it? Amplitude? I think we're in a good place if we can prolong a -AO. It's already a good place. I'm not having a bad season. Around 22" after today is pretty good by this time of year here. You must be doing alright too?