2025-2026 ENSO

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Crazy because we just had a country wide blowtorch, and in fact, most of the central and west US have been in a blowtorch since November. After the end of the month, long range looks ugly, but it could be just reverting back to its La Niña bias 

I’m not nearly as knowledgeable as most people here on MJO stuff but the look at the end of the ensembles does not look like a phase 8 or even 7 for that matter to me. It almost looks like it’s moving to something you’d see in 6.

[donsutherland1]

My confidence that we are in the early stages of what will be a regime change to a predominantly positive PNA since the end of the PNA- regime on January 11th has increased. The latest guidance shows most of the days will be positive through at least January 26. The regime change is consistent with historic experience following 25-day or longer PNA- regimes during winter.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Looking at the end of the ensemble runs, it looks like a country wide blowtorch is developing for the end of the month into beginning of Feb as a big blue ball develops from Alaska to the south then moving into the west coast. 

This could take some time to make it to the northeast as we slowly scour out the cold air and also risk CAD setups. I’m eyeing early Feb for the warmup here. 

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Crazy because we just had a country wide blowtorch, and in fact, most of the central and west US have been in a blowtorch since November. After the end of the month, long range looks ugly, but it could be just reverting back to its La Niña bias 

This has been a very favorable pattern for the eastern U.S. overall since December 1. You can see departures in the intermountain west as high as +16F to +18F for the winter season to date. Really can't complain about this look. Could be a LOT worse.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This has been a very favorable pattern for the eastern U.S. overall since December 1. You can see departures in the intermountain west as high as +16F to +18F for the winter season to date. Really can't complain about this look. Could be a LOT worse.

Shows up really well on the rankings too, with almost every station out there seeing its warmest winter to date.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting how sensitive the winter atmospheric ENSO state is to what occurs in the fall. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 we had the strong fall La Nina back background state prevent the El Nino atmospheric state from coupling during the winters. So we got two very La Nina-like winters. Plus the WPAC warm pool is boosting the RONI beyond what Nino 3.4 SSTs might suggest.

Another very interesting case study was the fall into winter 2012-2013 atmospheric patterns. We had a weak El Nino develop around Labor Day only to fade several weeks later. But the 500 mb atmospheric response and jet stream patterns from October on  were more El Niño-like. Then the very warm El-Nino-like December into mid-January. This was followed by the Southern Stream phasing in with the Northern Stream for the historic Nemo in February which followed the El Niño backloaded scenario. Those were the days before the WPAC warm pool became so dominant. So weak El Niño atmospheric states had no trouble coupling. 

I agree with you that a change in winter Nino 3.4s usually don’t shift the atmospheric state until we get into the spring and summer due to the atmospheric lag. Plus we saw how Niña-like influences persisted into the 2023-2024 very strong El Niño leading to the stronger Southeast Ridge and weaker STJ and lack of a Nino trough in the East leading to the record warmth. So we will have to monitor this developing El Niño for the hybrid Niña traits that occurred with our last El Niño. 

It would be nice to just get a clean El Niño translation. But even the seasonal models are lingering the warm pool near Japan as the Nino regions warm. So the next few years will be a test case if we can try and weaken that warm pool. 

Mercy that is a rather depressing prospect for snow if El Niños no longer work well due to that interference...and I wanna put a picture of that "WPAC Warm pool" on a dart board right about now, lol And let me guess...that warm pool is climate-related, right? Smh Has that pool ever been like this during any other decade?

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave

The SOI just jumped up to +21.96

Region 3.4 still below -0.8C

Tropical instability waves in region 3.4 on the SST maps

-AAM continuing

RONI dropped

Huge EWB just over a week ago

But the La Niña is dead and buried!

I applaud you for taking the advice and using a single source for both. I still don't like the SSTA-Global map but that is of my own.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting how sensitive the winter atmospheric ENSO state is to what occurs in the fall. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 we had the strong fall La Nina back background state prevent the El Nino atmospheric state from coupling during the winters. So we got two very La Nina-like winters. Plus the WPAC warm pool is boosting the RONI beyond what Nino 3.4 SSTs might suggest.

Another very interesting case study was the fall into winter 2012-2013 atmospheric patterns. We had a weak El Nino develop around Labor Day only to fade several weeks later. But the 500 mb atmospheric response and jet stream patterns from October on  were more El Niño-like. Then the very warm El-Nino-like December into mid-January. This was followed by the Southern Stream phasing in with the Northern Stream for the historic Nemo in February which followed the El Niño backloaded scenario. Those were the days before the WPAC warm pool became so dominant. So weak El Niño atmospheric states had no trouble coupling. 

I agree with you that a change in winter Nino 3.4s usually don’t shift the atmospheric state until we get into the spring and summer due to the atmospheric lag. Plus we saw how Niña-like influences persisted into the 2023-2024 very strong El Niño leading to the stronger Southeast Ridge and weaker STJ and lack of a Nino trough in the East leading to the record warmth. So we will have to monitor this developing El Niño for the hybrid Niña traits that occurred with our last El Niño. 

It would be nice to just get a clean El Niño translation. But even the seasonal models are lingering the warm pool near Japan as the Nino regions warm. So the next few years will be a test case if we can try and weaken that warm pool. 

Do you happen to have the site to see the depth of the warmth within this region or is that just a twitter thing?

I do find this year interesting even though we are in the Nina like atmospheric pattern/ base state it is not typical for us to see systems (in this particular pattern) going up the coast with little affect from a SER feature especially since we are entering mid to late January. This would and should be a time period where we see systems running right into the lakes almost similar to the a few days ago but over the next week and change we look to have this Nino like pattern evolve something is just off about this year so far.

The -PDO is 100% responsible still for the lack of precip in the east and SE how long that lasts will another interesting thing to watch over the next couple months. I personally would have thought by now we would at least be touching near average monthly precip totals.

[so_whats_happening]

52 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Crazy because we just had a country wide blowtorch, and in fact, most of the central and west US have been in a blowtorch since November. After the end of the month, long range looks ugly, but it could be just reverting back to its La Niña bias 

Always does after 240hrs whether it be La Nina or El Nino. I would not look past 240 in any regard not sure what is going this year with models having such wild swings but they are not even in lock step with each other past 96 hrs.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting how sensitive the winter atmospheric ENSO state is to what occurs in the fall. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 we had the strong fall La Nina back background state prevent the El Nino atmospheric state from coupling during the winters. So we got two very La Nina-like winters. Plus the WPAC warm pool is boosting the RONI beyond what Nino 3.4 SSTs might suggest.

Another very interesting case study was the fall into winter 2012-2013 atmospheric patterns. We had a weak El Nino develop around Labor Day only to fade several weeks later. But the 500 mb atmospheric response and jet stream patterns from October on  were more El Niño-like. Then the very warm El-Nino-like December into mid-January. This was followed by the Southern Stream phasing in with the Northern Stream for the historic Nemo in February which followed the El Niño backloaded scenario. Those were the days before the WPAC warm pool became so dominant. So weak El Niño atmospheric states had no trouble coupling. 

I agree with you that a change in winter Nino 3.4s usually don’t shift the atmospheric state until we get into the spring and summer due to the atmospheric lag. Plus we saw how Niña-like influences persisted into the 2023-2024 very strong El Niño leading to the stronger Southeast Ridge and weaker STJ and lack of a Nino trough in the East leading to the record warmth. So we will have to monitor this developing El Niño for the hybrid Niña traits that occurred with our last El Niño. 

It would be nice to just get a clean El Niño translation. But even the seasonal models are lingering the warm pool near Japan as the Nino regions warm. So the next few years will be a test case if we can try and weaken that warm pool. 

Didn't 23-24 mostly just fail because the El Nino was too strong?  Historically 1.5 or 1.6 is about the furthest you can take them or the whole country tends to pretty much torch.  I think 82-83 and 97-98 had alot of SER issues at times because the Aleutian Nino vortex just becomes so expansive it leads to a trof out west or in NW Canada

[LakePaste25]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Didn't 23-24 mostly just fail because the El Nino was too strong?  Historically 1.5 or 1.6 is about the furthest you can take them or the whole country tends to pretty much torch.  I think 82-83 and 97-98 had alot of SER issues at times because the Aleutian Nino vortex just becomes so expansive it leads to a trof out west or in NW Canada

During 23-24, we did have Nino like jet extensions/CONUS torches. But, whenever the jet retracted, it snapped back to an Aleutian ridge Nina regime with cutters. There was maybe a 1-2 week period in Jan and another 1-2 week in Feb where we actually had an E US trough if i remember correctly. Usually we would see less aleutian ridging in a typical Nino. 

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, roardog said:

Looking at the end of the ensemble runs, it looks like a country wide blowtorch is developing for the end of the month into beginning of Feb as a big blue ball develops from Alaska to the south then moving into the west coast. 

IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure…

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure…

The potential warmup shows up quite prominently on the Week 3 guidance:

[Maestrobjwa]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure…

Till March? Lol I mean I don't know all the things other than the SER that causes Nina Februaries to torch, but...if it's the same as other years...

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The potential warmup shows up quite prominently on the Week 3 guidance:

You think it's real this time? Many warm can kicks this season 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think it's real this time? Many warm can kicks this season 

I don’t know. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s temporary. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I don’t know. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s temporary. 

Looks like the Euro is favoring this scenario by driving the GOA low and torching Canada. But GEFS disagrees a bit, it stops short of doing what the euro did and instead retrogrades the trough towards the aleutians. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Shows up really well on the rankings too, with almost every station out there seeing its warmest winter to date.

This looks like a +PDO winter map, almost like 2014-15.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think it's real this time? Many warm can kicks this season 

Likely real but it will potentially take longer for the Northeast to warm up due to the tendency of CAD. I’ve been burned too many times by this setup, so now I’m careful to say it’s an instant torch for us. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure…

You have been saying this since November.  You will eventually be right about the warmup but not anytime soon.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like the Euro is favoring this scenario by driving the GOA low and torching Canada. But GEFS disagrees a bit, it stops short of doing what the euro did and instead retrogrades the trough towards the aleutians. 

Euro and eps have been too warm in the long range all.winter just to trend to the gefs.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think it's real this time? Many warm can kicks this season 

Weeklies after that 

[Krs4Lfe]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure…

You have been spot on with most of your takes this winter 

[SnowGoose69]

It looks like what happens on the ensembles today is you briefly get a +EPO but it immediately tries to return back to a +PNA pattern again, you'd torch Canada so would take a week or so for it to get colder again 

[Krs4Lfe]

According to Ben Noll, only 19% of CONUS has average or above average snow thus far this season. Lowest since 2011-2012. I’m sure that’ll change soon but it shows how dry the US has been and warm (we in the Northeast and Midwest got lucky, it’s still been relatively cold). For rest of US, winter never got started at all. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another very interesting case study was the fall into winter 2012-2013 atmospheric patterns. We had a weak El Nino develop around Labor Day only to fade several weeks later. But the 500 mb atmospheric response and jet stream patterns from October on  were more El Niño-like. Then the very warm El-Nino-like December into mid-January. This was followed by the Southern Stream phasing in with the Northern Stream for the historic Nemo in February which followed the El Niño backloaded scenario. Those were the days before the WPAC warm pool became so dominant. So weak El Niño atmospheric states had no trouble coupling. 

That failed el nino played a huge role in getting us the super el nino in 2015-16. If that el nino is stronger, then the super el nino never happens, and the PDO likely doesn't flip to positive in the mid-2010s. The years leading up to the super el nino shows us that a +PDO is probably more important for a cold/snowy winter than the el nino itself.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

You have been spot on with most of your takes this winter 

???

[SnoSki14]

14 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Shows up really well on the rankings too, with almost every station out there seeing its warmest winter to date.

Really emphasizes that when things get warm they shatter records and the opposite side is only average to modestly BN at best. 

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don’t know. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s temporary. 

Do you think BAM will have more luck with the last week of Jan than they had with Dec 31-Jan 15?

 How did BAM do for 12/31-1/15? Here was their forecast map that was reposted in late Dec:

 

So, they had most of the E US 1-4 BN.

 What verified?

-The SE was 4-7 AN vs their forecast of 1-2 BN (~7 too cold).

-DC-NYC was +3 vs their fcast of -2. So, 5 too cold.

-Midwest was +5 to +8 vs their 0 to -4. So, 8 too cold.

-DFW/Den was +10/+11 vs their +3. So, 7 too cold.

-Even Great Falls, that they had +8, was actually +17. So, 9 too cold.

-They had Phoenix 3 too cold 

-They were closest for SF/LV, which they had at +2. They actually were +2/+3.