2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seems to be following the last waves progression.

Good test for the "La Nina is fading fast" crowd....I call BS on it.....but IF that has any credence what so ever, we won't get boned out of phase 8 residence and amplitude once again. I think we will....watch the models adjust.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good test for the "La Nina is fading fast" crowd....I call BS on it.....but IF that has any credence what so ever, we won't get boned out of phase 8 residence and amplitude once again. I think we will....watch the models adjust.

Steve D says La Nina is over once the MJO goes into 7 and 8.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D says La Nina is over once the MJO goes into 7 and 8.

 

 

Well in that case, 30 days in phase 8 and shots for all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All kidding aside, I am shocked by the percentage of highly trained professional meteorologists that can't wrap their mind around the fact that you don't instantly eradicate a decade of cool ENSO AAM the moment the weekly anomaly in region 3.4 drops below the -0.5C threshold on (insert dataset of choice). It's utterly disheartening.

[so_whats_happening]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All kidding aside, I am shocked by the percentage of highly trained professional meteorologists that can't wrap their mind around the fact that you don't instantly eradicate a decade of cool ENSO AAM the moment the weekly anomaly in region 3.4 drops below the -0.5C threshold on (insert dataset of choice). It's utterly disheartening.

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

This may the response from the EWB Don was talking about a cooling of 3.4 (briefly) and a warming further east (potentially also briefly?). Sustainability unsure but would at least look to allow a MJO wave to past through weak. What concerns me still within the subsurface is the persistent cold pocket 140W roughly 150meters below the surface. That has a very persistent feature over the last ~4 years, even during the Nino event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

Yea, I don't doubt it hits 8 necessarily...but like we saw in December, guidance may, at least initially, be overzealous with residence and/or amplification.

[RodneyS]

On 1/12/2026 at 1:36 PM, snowman19 said:

 

It’s following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December: 

 

 

 

 

 

FYI, today's drought monitor map shows at least abnormally dry conditions in every state but one -- California: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

[michsnowfreak]

I happily report the biggest bust in 15 years here. Yesterday's forecast was for a 50% chance of snow along the arctic front, with accumulation a dusting to less than an inch. We ended up with 6.2" of powder. The unforecast storm caused traffic gridlock, with 4-7" falling in the Detroit area. No models but the rgem even remotely sniffed it out as late as 12z yesterday when snow began at noon. To see such a unanimous model failure is startling in this day/age, so a word of caution with the many scenarios that undoubtedly lie ahead as the weather looks active and some more juice with the STJ

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Very 1932-esque out there.

 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very 1932-esque out there.

Boston is running 5.1F colder than 1931-32 at this point in the winter. 

[roardog]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Boston is running 5.1F colder than 1931-32 at this point in the winter. 

It's crazy to me that soil temperatures could even be warm enough to produce a growing plant in what is a colder than normal winter at the latitude of Boston even if there's a week or two of above normal temps.

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Boston is running 5.1F colder than 1931-32 at this point in the winter. 

In 154 years of record, the max temp in Boston during January tied this years 52° 8 times. 31 times it was colder. 

In 114 of the 154 Januaries on record, Boston saw a higher max than 52°. Lmao nothing like 1932.

[RodneyS]

3 hours ago, RodneyS said:

FYI, today's drought monitor map shows at least abnormally dry conditions in every state but one -- California: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Further research reveals that the last time California had neither drought nor abnormally dry conditions was more than 25 years ago -- December 2000.  However, in that month many other states were similary situated, with drought a relatively minor problem in the US. So today's situtation may be unique in US history; see Map Archive | U.S. Drought Monitor

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

It's crazy to me that soil temperatures could even be warm enough to produce a growing plant in what is a colder than normal winter at the latitude of Boston even if there's a week or two of above normal temps.

Dandelions are tough. They are year-round in the New York City area. Obviously, they are few in number during the winter, but there are some around.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

Further research reveals that the last time California had neither drought nor abnormally dry conditions was more than 25 years ago -- December 2000.  However, in that month many other states were similary situated, with drought a relatively minor problem in the US. So today's situtation may be unique in US history; see Map Archive | U.S. Drought Monitor

We had major droughts in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic in 1998-99 and 2001-02.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Dandelions are tough. They are year-round in the New York City area. Obviously, they are few in number during the winter, but there are some around.

I didn’t know that. That’s surprising to me. It usually takes until sometime in May for it to be warm enough for dandelions around here. I usually don’t have to cut my lawn until May though either. So I guess NYC is like San Juan compared to here when it comes to plant life. lol

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All kidding aside, I am shocked by the percentage of highly trained professional meteorologists that can't wrap their mind around the fact that you don't instantly eradicate a decade of cool ENSO AAM the moment the weekly anomaly in region 3.4 drops below the -0.5C threshold on (insert dataset of choice). It's utterly disheartening.

Could not agree more. The wishcasting and delusions going around twitter, even by some pro mets like Steve D is off the charts. This fantasy that we are about to see an instant light switch flip to a full on El Niño/+PDO pattern due to one WWB is completely ludicrous and absurd. Asinine. We are well into a 2nd year La Niña and over a decade of -PDO and majorly -ENSO events. The idea that there is going to be an instant, magical 180 degree flip of the PAC due to one WWB, is going to go down in flames. 
 

On a side note, this unexpected big EWB with the SOI positive surge has done some damage. The rapid upwelling was pretty impressive. Region 3.4 is still down below -0.8C on OISST, the lowest of this entire event (was at -0.9C a couple of days ago) and there are very pronounced tropical instability waves showing up throughout region 3.4 on the new SSTA charts, a sign of a rather healthy La Niña event. I’m sure the current RONI dropped too. As of this moment, it’s definitely not dead….yet 

@donsutherland1

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, roardog said:

I didn’t know that. That’s surprising to me. It usually takes until sometime in May for it to be warm enough for dandelions around here. I usually don’t have to cut my lawn until May though either. So I guess NYC is like San Juan compared to here when it comes to plant life. lol

I suspect that the UHI Effect plays a role. The dandelions aren't exposed for the kind of long periods to severe cold that they are in colder less urban areas. 

[RodneyS]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

We had major droughts in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic in 1998-99 and 2001-02.

I understand, but my point was that it is quite remarkable that currently California is in better shape than any other state drought-wise, whereas in December 2000 many other states were similarly situated to California in being drought-free. Was there any month prior to January 2026 in US history where California was the drought-free leader among all states?

[SnowGoose69]

11 hours ago, roardog said:

It's crazy to me that soil temperatures could even be warm enough to produce a growing plant in what is a colder than normal winter at the latitude of Boston even if there's a week or two of above normal temps.

If you get really cold early it can make it easier for that to happen.  Many trees/plants need to go through a certain amount of hours below a threshold and then they're ready to bloom.  In 89-90 there was a crazy amount of blooming in VA/NC/SC in mid to late January because everything reached its hours below in December.  In a winter like 15-16 that probably did not happen since you never got cold enough in those areas for them to get required hours on the underside.  Up north though it did and stuff bloomed in NYC.   Fortunately when the warm spell happens this early the flowers/buds can die and then often get another stretch below threshold to regenerate again in late February or March.  If you get heavy blooming in early or mid Feb though and then a killer 3-4 day stretch of 20s/30s the flowers will just die and the tree will leaf out 6-8 weeks later.

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave

The SOI just jumped up to +21.96

Region 3.4 still below -0.8C

Tropical instability waves in region 3.4 on the SST maps

-AAM continuing

RONI dropped

Huge EWB just over a week ago

But the La Niña is dead and buried!

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

you don't instantly eradicate a decade of cool ENSO AAM the moment the weekly anomaly in region 3.4 drops below the -0.5C threshold

It’s interesting how sensitive the winter atmospheric ENSO state is to what occurs in the fall. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 we had the strong fall La Nina back background state prevent the El Nino atmospheric state from coupling during the winters. So we got two very La Nina-like winters. Plus the WPAC warm pool is boosting the RONI beyond what Nino 3.4 SSTs might suggest.

Another very interesting case study was the fall into winter 2012-2013 atmospheric patterns. We had a weak El Nino develop around Labor Day only to fade several weeks later. But the 500 mb atmospheric response and jet stream patterns from October on  were more El Niño-like. Then the very warm El-Nino-like December into mid-January. This was followed by the Southern Stream phasing in with the Northern Stream for the historic Nemo in February which followed the El Niño backloaded scenario. Those were the days before the WPAC warm pool became so dominant. So weak El Niño atmospheric states had no trouble coupling. 

I agree with you that a change in winter Nino 3.4s usually don’t shift the atmospheric state until we get into the spring and summer due to the atmospheric lag. Plus we saw how Niña-like influences persisted into the 2023-2024 very strong El Niño leading to the stronger Southeast Ridge and weaker STJ and lack of a Nino trough in the East leading to the record warmth. So we will have to monitor this developing El Niño for the hybrid Niña traits that occurred with our last El Niño. 

It would be nice to just get a clean El Niño translation. But even the seasonal models are lingering the warm pool near Japan as the Nino regions warm. So the next few years will be a test case if we can try and weaken that warm pool. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting how sensitive the winter atmospheric ENSO state is to what occurs in the fall. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 we had the strong fall La Nina back background state prevent the El Nino atmospheric state from coupling during the winters. So we got two very La Nina-like winters. Plus the WPAC warm pool is boosting the RONI beyond what Nino 3.4 SSTs might suggest.

Another very interesting case study was the fall into winter 2012-2013 atmospheric patterns. We had a weak El Nino develop around Labor Day only to fade several weeks later. But the 500 mb atmospheric response and jet stream patterns from October on  were more El Niño-like. Then the very warm El-Nino-like December into mid-January. This was followed by the Southern Stream phasing in with the Northern Stream for the historic Nemo in February which followed the El Niño backloaded scenario. Those were the days before the WPAC warm pool became so dominant. So weak El Niño atmospheric states had no trouble coupling. 

I agree with you that a change in winter Nino 3.4s usually don’t shift the atmospheric state until we get into the spring and summer due to the atmospheric lag. Plus we saw how Niña-like influences persisted into the 2023-2024 very strong El Niño leading to the stronger Southeast Ridge and weaker STJ and lack of a Nino trough in the East leading to the record warmth. So we will have to monitor this developing El Niño for the hybrid Niña traits that occurred with our last El Niño. 

It would be nice to just get a clean El Niño translation. But even the seasonal models are lingering the warm pool near Japan as the Nino regions warm. So the next few years will be a test case if we can try and weaken that warm pool. 

I was torn on whether to include 2013 in my February composite, but I ultimately decided against it because of this....that said, we still have at least a brief El Nino like interlude coming up later this month....

My three worst outlooks were 2018-2019, 2019-2020 and 2023-2024, but I am confident that I had I known what I do now, then would have been much better in large part to your musings. Great stuff, as always, Chris.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave

The SOI just jumped up to +21.96

Region 3.4 still below -0.8C

Tropical instability waves in region 3.4 on the SST maps

-AAM continuing

RONI dropped

Huge EWB just over a week ago

But the La Niña is dead and buried!

Yea, not surprising to you, Chris or me.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave

The SOI just jumped up to +21.96

Region 3.4 still below -0.8C

Tropical instability waves in region 3.4 on the SST maps

-AAM continuing

RONI dropped

Huge EWB just over a week ago

But the La Niña is dead and buried!

IMO, this isn't surprising. It was always a stretch to suggest that the La Niña would almost instantaneously disappear and that all of its influence would disappear along with it. 

I'm unimpressed with most of the social media forecasters. 

But for now, I have to get out the snow blower, if I have any hope of getting to work. Roads must be snowed in, cars buried, and the landscape smothered under a thick blanket of drifted snow.

Oh wait, the sky is crystal clear and the sun is shining brightly. The ground is barren. 

[EastonSN+]

[jbenedet]

The GEFS still in disagreement but looking across guidance it’s likely the one that’s wrong. The bulk of guidance has an MJO phase 8 look to it with significant cold anomalies across NA during the last 10 days of Jan.

If that’s the case it looks largely like a repeat of December to first week of Jan pattern for my area…Not a fan….

Cold and dry here…

Winter Storm tracks focused on the mid Atlantic.

That would also fit the mold of La Niña…

[roardog]

Looking at the end of the ensemble runs, it looks like a country wide blowtorch is developing for the end of the month into beginning of Feb as a big blue ball develops from Alaska to the south then moving into the west coast.