2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seems to be following the last waves progression.

Good test for the "La Nina is fading fast" crowd....I call BS on it.....but IF that has any credence what so ever, we won't get boned out of phase 8 residence and amplitude once again. I think we will....watch the models adjust.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good test for the "La Nina is fading fast" crowd....I call BS on it.....but IF that has any credence what so ever, we won't get boned out of phase 8 residence and amplitude once again. I think we will....watch the models adjust.

Steve D says La Nina is over once the MJO goes into 7 and 8.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D says La Nina is over once the MJO goes into 7 and 8.

 

 

Well in that case, 30 days in phase 8 and shots for all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All kidding aside, I am shocked by the percentage of highly trained professional meteorologists that can't wrap their mind around the fact that you don't instantly eradicate a decade of cool ENSO AAM the moment the weekly anomaly in region 3.4 drops below the -0.5C threshold on (insert dataset of choice). It's utterly disheartening.

[so_whats_happening]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All kidding aside, I am shocked by the percentage of highly trained professional meteorologists that can't wrap their mind around the fact that you don't instantly eradicate a decade of cool ENSO AAM the moment the weekly anomaly in region 3.4 drops below the -0.5C threshold on (insert dataset of choice). It's utterly disheartening.

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

This may the response from the EWB Don was talking about a cooling of 3.4 (briefly) and a warming further east (potentially also briefly?). Sustainability unsure but would at least look to allow a MJO wave to past through weak. What concerns me still within the subsurface is the persistent cold pocket 140W roughly 150meters below the surface. That has a very persistent feature over the last ~4 years, even during the Nino event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

Yea, I don't doubt it hits 8 necessarily...but like we saw in December, guidance may, at least initially, be overzealous with residence and/or amplification.

[RodneyS]

On 1/12/2026 at 1:36 PM, snowman19 said:

 

It’s following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December: 

 

 

 

 

 

FYI, today's drought monitor map shows at least abnormally dry conditions in every state but one -- California: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

[michsnowfreak]

I happily report the biggest bust in 15 years here. Yesterday's forecast was for a 50% chance of snow along the arctic front, with accumulation a dusting to less than an inch. We ended up with 6.2" of powder. The unforecast storm caused traffic gridlock, with 4-7" falling in the Detroit area. No models but the rgem even remotely sniffed it out as late as 12z yesterday when snow began at noon. To see such a unanimous model failure is startling in this day/age, so a word of caution with the many scenarios that undoubtedly lie ahead as the weather looks active and some more juice with the STJ

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Very 1932-esque out there.

 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very 1932-esque out there.

Boston is running 5.1F colder than 1931-32 at this point in the winter. 

[roardog]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Boston is running 5.1F colder than 1931-32 at this point in the winter. 

It's crazy to me that soil temperatures could even be warm enough to produce a growing plant in what is a colder than normal winter at the latitude of Boston even if there's a week or two of above normal temps.

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Boston is running 5.1F colder than 1931-32 at this point in the winter. 

In 154 years of record, the max temp in Boston during January tied this years 52° 8 times. 31 times it was colder. 

In 114 of the 154 Januaries on record, Boston saw a higher max than 52°. Lmao nothing like 1932.