2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seems to be following the last waves progression.

Good test for the "La Nina is fading fast" crowd....I call BS on it.....but IF that has any credence what so ever, we won't get boned out of phase 8 residence and amplitude once again. I think we will....watch the models adjust.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good test for the "La Nina is fading fast" crowd....I call BS on it.....but IF that has any credence what so ever, we won't get boned out of phase 8 residence and amplitude once again. I think we will....watch the models adjust.

Steve D says La Nina is over once the MJO goes into 7 and 8.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D says La Nina is over once the MJO goes into 7 and 8.

 

 

Well in that case, 30 days in phase 8 and shots for all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All kidding aside, I am shocked by the percentage of highly trained professional meteorologists that can't wrap their mind around the fact that you don't instantly eradicate a decade of cool ENSO AAM the moment the weekly anomaly in region 3.4 drops below the -0.5C threshold on (insert dataset of choice). It's utterly disheartening.

[so_whats_happening]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All kidding aside, I am shocked by the percentage of highly trained professional meteorologists that can't wrap their mind around the fact that you don't instantly eradicate a decade of cool ENSO AAM the moment the weekly anomaly in region 3.4 drops below the -0.5C threshold on (insert dataset of choice). It's utterly disheartening.

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

This may the response from the EWB Don was talking about a cooling of 3.4 (briefly) and a warming further east (potentially also briefly?). Sustainability unsure but would at least look to allow a MJO wave to past through weak. What concerns me still within the subsurface is the persistent cold pocket 140W roughly 150meters below the surface. That has a very persistent feature over the last ~4 years, even during the Nino event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

Yea, I don't doubt it hits 8 necessarily...but like we saw in December, guidance may, at least initially, be overzealous with residence and/or amplification.