2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just mentioning in the ENSO thread, we are going to stretch the shit out of the PV during the second half of January, then the death-blow will come in February....we should end up splitting that b!tch in two. The +TNH setting up next week is the precursor to that major wave 2 disruption that will culminate in a February split.

We are going places pattern wise, and the snow should follow suite.

@michsnowfreak

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean that that PV is going to ultimately incur a severe disruption that will end in a split, after the stretching of the next few weeks.

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mean "deathblow" to winter...as in winter over; quite the opposite. It's just getting started, as frustrating as it's been.

 

[GaWx]

Latest CFS AAM forecast: pretty close to prior one suggesting rise to modestly + in early Feb:

[so_whats_happening]

40 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

Seems as though I was off a bit on overall progression of near normal for the region. Warmth extended a little bit longer than previously expected. As for the AAM maybe it is because it is standardized that it is different from the CFS forecast of showing around -1.

 

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Latest CFS AAM forecast: pretty close to prior one suggesting rise to modestly + in early Feb:

Never mind they are both standardized. For some reason the CFS forecast looks lower than the other chart. 

Figured I would also add these two to show the progression better and the overall potential impacts.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

Never mind they are both standardized. For some reason the CFS forecast looks lower than the other chart. 

Figured I would also add these two to show the progression better and the overall potential impacts.

Indeed, the AAM values on your chart of recent history appear to be ~1/2 a SD higher than the CFS initializations often though sometimes they’ve been close. For example, check out the 11/28 CFS initialization of +1, which was at a late Nov. peak:

 Your chart says 11/28 was near a peak of ~+1.45, which is ~0.45 higher than the CFS init.:

 Also, CFS initialized 12/19 at ~-1.25 vs your chart then at ~-0.7, meaning yours was then ~0.55 higher than the CFS init.:

 

But OTOH: CFS initialized 1/3 barely <0 vs your chart then also barely <0:

 I don’t know anything about the “officialness”/accuracy of your chart. But I can say based on these comparisons that the CFS on average appears to often though not always initialize ~0.5 SDs lower than your chart’s “actuals”.

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

What an interesting pattern the 00z GFS showed up to 240hrs @ 10mb

The 500mb maps were also very interesting, of course one run but don't think I have seen tropo/strato connection in this way with multiple 500mb lobes developing especially one still sitting in the Beaufort Sea/ CAA before.

This would probably be considered a minor wave 2 event but not a whole lot of warming taking place which is something that is lacking in completely taking down the SPV.

One thing is for sure….someone is going to be dead wrong about the stratosphere/SPV evolution for late winter (February/March). There is one camp that says it’s going to strengthen significantly and couple with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO and another camp that thinks we see a major SSWE, with a major SPV weaking/split and -AO/-NAO blocking. Should be an interesting 2 months coming up…..

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Social media noise about pattern chaos and dramatic shifts in social media videos notwithstanding, I am impressed how drama-free and orderly the pattern progression has been so far this month. 
The East was supposed to experience a thaw of about a week or so. That's playing out nicely. Afterward, a gradual transition toward colder but not severely cold weather was expected to occur. That's poised to play out. Most of the southern tier with the exception of the Southwest where a well-signaled intrusion of cold is now underway, was expected to stay mild. It has. 
Going forward, the progression toward cold from the Great Lakes to the Northeast (Mid-Atlantic and New England) remains on course. No significant Arctic outbreaks or snowstorms are likely through mid-month. Afterward, there is potential for the cold pattern to become snowy, but that's where the largest uncertainty rests. If the PNA undergoes a regime change to predominantly positive values near or after mid-month, prospects for East Coast snowstorms would increase. If not, frequent, but smaller snowfalls would be the norm. An WPO-/EPO-/AO- pattern is generally cold regardless of the PNA except in the Southeast (PNA+ is cold). By the end of this weekend, one should have higher confidence in the PNA evolution. Historically, a regime change is favored following the break in long-duration winter PNA- periods. But one cannot rule out a more unusual situation where the PNA only briefly goes positive before returning to its mainly negative state. However, extended range PNA forecasts which have low skill are insufficient. 
Overall, January still appears on course for a colder than normal outcome from the Great Lakes to New England. The southern tier from the desert southwest across to the Southeast will likely wind up with warm anomalies. Cold shots will still be possible, particularly in the Southeast as the month advances.
Finally, with respect to the La Niña, the atmosphere remains well-coupled. The AAM- is powerful proof that things remain coupled. Nevertheless, the La Niña continues to fade, and that process will continue through the winter. Weekly figures could begin to reach values just below La Niña threshold during late January. A significant WWB is possible this month. If it occurs, it would be unusual but not unprecedented. One such WWB occurred during Winter 2016-17. That a WWB might occur won't necessarily mean that February has to be cold. February 2017 wound up being exceptionally warm. I do not expect that scenario this time around. The full range of variables easing influence of ENSO, teleconnections, etc., will determine the February 2026 outcome.
 

The one very persistent variable that hasn’t changed since the tail end of summer, 2024 has been the dry/drought pattern we’ve been stuck in ever since. My guess is that this changes in a big way once the El Niño establishes itself this summer @bluewave

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The one very persistent variable that hasn’t changed since the tail end of summer, 2024 has been the dry/drought pattern we’ve been stuck in ever since. My guess is that this changes in a big way once the El Niño establishes itself this summer @bluewave

 

 

 

 

Like you, I expect that a shift in ENSO should break the drought/persistent dryness.

[TheClimateChanger]

@GaWx

 

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure….someone is going to be dead wrong about the stratosphere/SPV evolution for late winter (February/March). There is one camp that says it’s going to strengthen significantly and couple with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO and another camp that thinks we see a major SSWE, with a major SPV weaking/split and -AO/-NAO blocking. Should be an interesting 2 months coming up…..

I am honestly on the fence with it. Typically we only see a full destruction of the SPV 1-2 times a decade. I have a feeling we may have to wait but hope I am wrong.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I am honestly on the fence with it. Typically we only see a full destruction of the SPV 1-2 times a decade. I have a feeling we may have to wait but hope I am wrong.

Yea. If one does happen, I can’t see it being on the same level as February, 2018. That SSWE was just off charts, very highly anomalous. I’d have to say the chances of seeing two in less than a decade is extremely unlikely, but I guess stranger things have happened 

[SnowGoose69]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure….someone is going to be dead wrong about the stratosphere/SPV evolution for late winter (February/March). There is one camp that says it’s going to strengthen significantly and couple with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO and another camp that thinks we see a major SSWE, with a major SPV weaking/split and -AO/-NAO blocking. Should be an interesting 2 months coming up…..

I am just amazed how good the long range ensembles have been this winter with the theme or setup of the pattern inside about 192 and how bad they have been beyond that.  Now we have the ensembles today briefly trying to go -PNA but then seeming to be shifting everything back towards +PNA again by D15-16.  I think most likely the overall idea is the +PNA is going to hold longer than expected as that regime once it establishes as hard as it is going to here it is difficult to boot it out.  I have no real ideas beyond that because the MJO strength is a big issue if its strong or weaker

[EasternLI]

MJO is interesting again after being inactive for a while. It's firing off starting in the west pacific and might make another attempt at a phase 8 run. If it lines up with these arrows, you are there. Especially if you can push that suppressed phase fully onto 120E. That did not happen last time. It attenuated and fell short. Therefore I do not believe we ever truly achieved phase 8 the first time. It'll be interesting to see what happens now, with the warm pool leaning slightly east. Thinking maybe we can get a better attempt this time but we'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea. If one does happen, I can’t see it being on the same level as February, 2018. That SSWE was just off charts, very highly anomalous. I’d have to say the chances of seeing two in less than a decade is extremely unlikely, but I guess stranger things have happened 

Hey, I never thought I'd be on the verge of 8 consecutive shitty seasons, but here we are....and for the record, I have utterly pantsed Webb so far this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Like you, I expect that a shift in ENSO should break the drought/persistent dryness.

Right, and then watch it be a monster-east based event.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, and then watch it be a monster-east based event.

I sure hope not.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

MJO is interesting again after being inactive for a while. It's firing off starting in the west pacific and might make another attempt at a phase 8 run. If it lines up with these arrows, you are there. Especially if you can push that suppressed phase fully onto 120E. That did not happen last time. It attenuated and fell short. Therefore I do not believe we ever truly achieved phase 8 the first time. It'll be interesting to see what happens now, with the warm pool leaning slightly east. Thinking maybe we can get a better attempt this time but we'll see.

yeah, nice to see that forcing move east into the CPAC and WHEM coinciding with the WWB taking place. should keep canonical Nina impacts at bay

[GaWx]

 The models are unanimous in progging a 13+ day long phase 6 (1/9-21+). All that’s needed to have a record long Jan phase 6 is for it to be 12 days. This is consistent with phases 6-7 having had by far the largest # of days in Jan since 2011 (101, 104). OTOH, the # of Jan phase 8/1/2 days since 2011 has been only 42/17/26 days!

GEFS has a 2.75 amp peak but it often is too strong:

Looking ahead to Feb, phase 7/6 had 134/77 days since 2011 with 8/1/2/3 much lower at 41/30/32/35.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Very interesting crash in Natural Gas over the last 4 weeks

This is now one of the lowest prices on record for January vs inflation. This is showing probability for a very +NAO for the rest of this Winter, and imo some sign for +NAO next Winter too. 

CPC continues to predict cold for the Northeast.. will the price rise from $2.63 by Feb 6th? stay tuned... 

So far the price has not moved up after a cold January forecast call for the Northeast. I went back and analoged it and found a weak East coast, US signal for January vs a very strong Europe signal.. central Europe was like +8F in the mean... it's very NAO-weighted. 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Very interesting crash in Natural Gas over the last 4 weeks

This is now one of the lowest prices on record for January vs inflation. This is showing probability for a very +NAO for the rest of this Winter, and imo some sign for +NAO next Winter too. 

CPC continues to predict cold for the Northeast.. will the price rise from $2.63 by Feb 6th? stay tuned... 

So far the price has not moved up after a cold January forecast call for the Northeast. I went back and analoged it and found a weak East coast, US signal for January moves vs a very strong Europe signal.. central Europe was like +8F in the mean... it's very NAO-weighted. 

 

If the CPC is correct, that would be a good look for cold and would possibly translate over to wintry weather chances. Colder than normal temps at peak climo for second half of January and first week of February is ideal. But it’s also PNA related. A negative PNA will drive trough and cold into west which would lead to heights rising in the east. Most model guidance shows a return to a -PNA towards the end of their range. Whether that moved up in time remains yet to be seen  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

If the CPC is correct, that would be a good look for cold and would possibly translate over to wintry weather chances. Colder than normal temps at peak climo for second half of January and first week of February is ideal. But it’s also PNA related. A negative PNA will drive trough and cold into west which would lead to heights rising in the east. Most model guidance shows a return to a -PNA towards the end of their range. Whether that moved up in time remains yet to be seen  

CPC has above average precip in the Mid Atlantic too, which would definitely translate to snow chances in the coldest 2 weeks of the year. 

We will have to do cold with -EPO/-WPO though, because the long range models are building a +NAO pattern in the Atlantic. We have ridging possibly at 90N, and then a south-based +NAO underneath of it. We saw the same pattern last February. 

[raindancewx]

GFS has a snow storm down in the Highlands of northern Mexico inside ten days, from a system that looks almost tropical. Saltillo ish area would see heavy snow if it were to verify - pretty neat to see even in fantasy land.

NE Asia by Kamchatka has seen a lot of rex-block style setups this first week or so of January, which supports a return to active weather in the Southwest at the end of the month, in the Jan 25 and on range, roughly.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@GaWx Jan 9th-on looks like a +PNA pattern in the N. Pacific/N. America. It's interesting that this has been more of a model trend, as they didn't really show this much +pna in the medium/long range. Donsutherland has done research showing a strong -PNA switch to +PNA, too. 

Also, see how the warm central-ENSO-subsurface is correlating with more +PNA conditions as the warm water makes it east of the the dateline?

We are going back to a cold pattern.