2025-2026 ENSO

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is now colder in the long range . All the models have trended colder. 

Euro is frigid

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I'm waiting for Bluewave to embed a tweet about how fast of a flight it was from Tokyo to San Francisco, and then a 1994-2015 minus 2016-2025 250mb zonal wind graphic

[brooklynwx99]

Pacific jet is trending more equatorward towards mid-month, leading to a better wave break and more poleward ridging near AK… this makes sense given the MJO 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Pacific jet is trending more equatorward towards mid-month, leading to a better wave break and more poleward ridging near AK… this makes sense given the MJO 

GEFS/GEPS in a snap shot mindset do not look great D14-16, but they're in the process it seems of evolving to something different.  A ton likely depends on where the MJO goes

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm waiting for Bluewave to embed a tweet about how fast of a flight it was from Tokyo to San Francisco, and then a 1994-2015 minus 2016-2025 250mb zonal wind graphic

You know he's working on something, lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

You know he's working on something, lol.

He has a varied approach...may also be a Pacific SST chart along with sentence or six about how the models embellish phase 8 of the MJO in this "new, warmer climate".

[40/70 Benchmark]

I swear he has an alarm on his Iphone that is triggered whenever MJO812 smiles.

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The larger test is mid month and onward.

[bncho]

lets listen to @MJO812 whenever the MJO might enter 8-1-2. it's literally in his name!

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

GEFS/GEPS in a snap shot mindset do not look great D14-16, but they're in the process it seems of evolving to something different.  A ton likely depends on where the MJO goes

I agree that they don’t look as good… given the MJO progression, I feel like the EPS makes more sense. we’ll see

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree that they don’t look as good… given the MJO progression, I feel like the EPS makes more sense. we’ll see

Given the progression of the reflection event coupled with a weakening MJO wave, the GEFS make more sense to me mid month. Re-consolidating PV and developing PT regime.