2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

 

Yes there has been nothing to suggest more than a displacement event taking place. The warming overall is very muted and while the semi-permanent ridging is impressive leading to a much weakened zonal flow there is more to it than just a weakened zonal flow. The SPV is still very much intact just getting knocked around for now.

This certainly feels like there is potential for a 2-3 week period of wintry like effects as we get to mid December and on due to this. 

[so_whats_happening]

This is impressive to see though models are showing the potential destruction of the Nina like atmosphere coming up as we go into December. This really should kick into effect a downwelling kelvin wave from the warm pool sitting around 160E below the surface.

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very much agreed a quick disruption followed by a very strong PV when it flips back

No, there is nothing to suggest it even goes above average as we move into January.

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have had numerous model forecast attempts beyond 10 days to try and shift the storm tracks pattern since February 2022. But none have made to under 120 hrs on the models  It’s still possible that something could eventually shift. But it won’t be believable until it shows up under 120 hrs. 

Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

honest question, is it possible for models in the 1-2 week range to show a pattern that you will actually get excited about? 

I think with terrible models have been, no one should get excited in terms of snow until there is model consensus for snow in their backyard within the 2-3 day window.

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

Simon Lee has been saying 1996-97 is a good stratospheric analog for over a month now. It’s not like some twitterologist is saying this either. He’s one of the foremost authorities on the stratosphere, has written many published papers on it 

 

 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yes there has been nothing to suggest more than a displacement event taking place. The warming overall is very muted and while the semi-permanent ridging is impressive leading to a much weakened zonal flow there is more to it than just a weakened zonal flow. The SPV is still very much intact just getting knocked around for now.

This certainly feels like there is potential for a 2-3 week period of wintry like effects as we get to mid December and on due to this. 

Models really struggle with the December forecast progression of the pattern in late November. That’s why I would like to see everything play out over the next few weeks before getting too excited this early.

Let’s see what the Euro monthly comes up with on the December 5th release. There is a bit of a late November forecast barrier for getting the mid into late December patterns correct.

Since we can go back to most years at this time in the long range forecasts  and watch numerous changes as the calendar actually gets into the first 5 days or so of December.

Plus we have the backdrop of only 3 Decembers in the last 14 years that lead to major I-95 snowstorms since 2011. So December has faced some challenges for the snowfall after having 7 out of 11 snowy years between 2000 and 2010. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Simon Lee has been saying 1996-97 is a good stratospheric analog for over a month now. It’s not like some twitterologist is saying this either. He’s one of the foremost authorities on the stratosphere, has written many published papers on it 

 

 

This isnt 1996/1997

Strong into P8

Dont expect a strong PV

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Simon Lee has been saying 1996-97 is a good stratospheric analog for over a month now. It’s not like some twitterologist is saying this either. He’s one of the foremost authorities on the stratosphere, has written many published papers on it 

 

 

Simon is highly credible with deep expertise. He doesn't make outlandish statements for clicks or subscriptions. He has done important research. I am aware of his concerns and take them seriously. 

With regard to the upcoming SSWE, I have outlined what is my current baseline thinking. Overall, I have three general scenarios:

Scenario 1: Great Lakes Focused Cold, East Gets a Window (EPO-/AO-/PNA-) -- My Baseline
Scenario 2: Colder/Blockier; Classic Eastern Winter Period (EPO-/AO-/PNA+) 
Scenario 3: Delayed or Short Impact/Persistent SE Ridge; Cold Underperforms in the East; reduced snow opportunities in the Mid-Atlantic Region (EPO-/AO+/PNA-)

Under my current baseline, cold would first move into the Great Lakes Region and then spread farther east (except for the Southeast; the cold will be fleeting there). The late November cold shot is unrelated to the stratospheric event. Should the forecast AO- break down relatively quickly, the odds of Scenario 3 would increase. Given guidance skill (lack thereof) at long timeframes, I am sticking with the baseline until there is credible evidence it is going off track.

Interestingly, during Winter 1996-1997, January was the coldest month relative to normal for such cities as Detroit and New York. That outcome was suggested by my final winter analog set.

 

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This isnt 1996/1997

Strong into P8

That post had nothing at all to do with the tropospheric MJO. It was the stratosphere only, which Simon Lee believes (in his professional opinion) resembles 96-97. But with regard to the MJO, we won’t know for certain that the MJO actually goes strongly into phase 8 until it happens, it’s simply a computer generated projection right now

[EastonSN+]

42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Simon is highly credible with deep expertise. He doesn't make outlandish statements for clicks or subscriptions. He has done important research. I am aware of his concerns and take them seriously. 

With regard to the upcoming SSWE, I have outlined what is my current baseline thinking. Overall, I have three general scenarios:

Scenario 1: Great Lakes Focused Cold, East Gets a Window (EPO-/AO-/PNA-) -- My Baseline
Scenario 2: Colder/Blockier; Classic Eastern Winter Period (EPO-/AO-/PNA+) 
Scenario 3: Delayed or Short Impact/Persistent SE Ridge; Cold Underperforms in the East; reduced snow opportunities in the Mid-Atlantic Region (EPO-/AO+/PNA-)

Under my current baseline, cold would first move into the Great Lakes Region and then spread farther east (except for the Southeast; the cold will be fleeting there). The late November cold shot is unrelated to the stratospheric event. Should the forecast AO- break down relatively quickly, the odds of Scenario 3 would increase. Given guidance skill (lack thereof) at long timeframes, I am sticking with the baseline until there is credible evidence it is going off track.

Interestingly, during Winter 1996-1997, January was the coldest month relative to normal for such cities as Detroit and New York. That outcome was suggested by my final winter analog set.

 

If I remember correctly, there were a number of storms that just missed central park with snowfall. Even though I believe the city ended up around 4 inches for the year, with subtle differences it could have been much more. 

Of course the giant blizzard ending April 1st that year was too warm and east for Manhattan (all the other borrows did ok). However if that same storm occurred 2 weeks earlier, Manhattan could have had a solid 6 to 10 inches. 

Going into this year with low expectations, I would definitely roll the dice with a 96 / 97 repeat.

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That post had nothing at all to do with the tropospheric MJO. It was the stratosphere only, which Simon Lee believes (in his professional opinion) resembles 96-97. But with regard to the MJO, we won’t know for certain that the MJO actually goes strongly into phase 8 until it happens, it’s simply a computer generated projection right now

Same can be said if it goes into the bad phases. Just a computer model.

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

If I remember correctly, there were a number of storms that just missed central park with snowfall. Even though I believe the city ended up around 4 inches for the year, with subtle differences it could have been much more. 

Of course the giant blizzard ending April 1st that year was too warm and east for Manhattan (all the other borrows did ok). However if that same storm occurred 2 weeks earlier, Manhattan could have had a solid 6 to 10 inches. 

Going into this year with low expectations, I would definitely roll the dice with a 96 / 97 repeat.

My expectations are higher with the weak PV/ LA Nina and a favorable MJO.

I think we get more snow than last winter ( thats not saying much though )

Winter should start to kick in after next week.

[donsutherland1]

The probabilistic maps from the latest CFSv2 monthly forecasts (just outside its skillful range) appear to be consistent with my baseline thinking (Upper Midwest/Great Lakes-focused cold that spreads eastward, above normal snowfall in the Upper Midwest-Great Lakes Region ( including Chicago to Toronto).

Finally, there continues to be no evidence of the kind of buildup of expansive severe cold in the Northern Hemisphere that would produce a severely cold December in the CONUS. This does not preclude the possibility of 1-2 Arctic outbreaks, but those are synoptic events that can't be forecast from this far out. But the path toward an extremely cold month is one that is statistically very unlikely and for which there is no evidence currently to support such claims.

Therefore, the Social Media chatter toward that end is pure speculation. The idea that December would rival 1983 is nonsensical. December 1983 (CONUS mean temperature of 25.48°) was the coldest December on record in the CONUS. The last December with a CONUS mean temperature below 30° was December 2009 (29.64°) and that outcome was made possible by extraordinary and persistent blocking in the WPO/EPO/AO domains. Both those frigid Decembers were preceded by Novembers with a much larger deep cold pool in the Northern Hemisphere. So, a logical question would be how such cold would materialize if the deep cold pool is small and there is no indication of 2009-style extreme blocking on the guidance (which can't reliably be forecast from this far out)? If the ingredients aren't present or can't yet be determined to be present, one can't credibly call for such outcomes, especially when they are rare statistical events. 

Finally, the odds are further tilted against such an outcome by the warming that has occurred in the Northern Hemisphere (especially the Arctic) since 1983. Below are the GISS Arctic region temperature anomalies since 1980.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If I remember correctly, there were a number of storms that just missed central park with snowfall. Even though I believe the city ended up around 4 inches for the year, with subtle differences it could have been much more. 

Of course the giant blizzard ending April 1st that year was too warm and east for Manhattan (all the other borrows did ok). However if that same storm occurred 2 weeks earlier, Manhattan could have had a solid 6 to 10 inches. 

Going into this year with low expectations, I would definitely roll the dice with a 96 / 97 repeat.

Yes. There were near misses. 

 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.

Late last November into early December the EPS and GEFS  were forecasting the +PNA -EPO to extend through the holidays. But they greatly underestimated the Pacific Jet and we got the big jet extension which lead to the record +EPO and warmer pattern later in the month. I was highlighting the warmer risks back in the threads going into early December last year.

Then we got the big January suppression pattern with the record snowstorm on the Gulf Coast. There was a kicker coming into Western Canada at the time that contributed to that suppression. The MJO 8 was really brief in phase 8 on the RMMS last January but we had lingering forcing on the VP charts near the Maritime Continent which may have prevented the Pacific Jet from fully relaxing like our last successful MJO 8 in January 2022.

Then in early February the extended EPS was trying to forecast a snowy gradient pattern near NYC. I mentioned that the gradient would probably shift to the north. Then we got the record Great Lakes cutter with the -5SD Greenland block which linked with the Southeast ridge and Toronto hot the record snows. Since the models underestimated the Southeast ridge again.

This is why I don’t have any confidence when models show big patterns in the week 2 and week 3 time ranges. If a big pattern shows up under 120 hrs, then I will get on board. 

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark Would love December, 1996. That was when the famous Jim Cantore 4 inches per hour thundersnow storm occurred in Worchester, Mass 

[EasternLI]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

No, there is nothing to suggest it even goes above average as we move into January.

It's actually a little bit interesting, the way things are unfolding for the PV. Having previously seen the wave 1 tropospheric precursor pattern (displacement). In the weeks prior. Followed by the displacement event we've all been monitoring in the stratosphere now. Now, looking at some ensemble runs moving forward. We're resembling something pretty close to the wave 2 precursor (split). Which, if we take into consideration what looks to be a meaningful phase 7 mjo transit upcoming (known for PV disruption). Plus the associated WWB mentioned out at the dateline. That should act to give another boost to the AAM. If I'm recalling correctly, split events are typically achieved with a wave 1 attack (preconditioning) followed up by wave 2. Added all up raises an eyebrow a little bit. I'll just add, "setbacks" (or vice versa) from a European perspective doesn't necessarily equal the same to someone in the US for anyone reading.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark Would love December, 1996. That was when the famous Jim Cantore 4 inches per hour thundersnow storm occurred in Worchester, Mass 

No...no, I wouldn't; I got 2.5" and then a flip to rain. It was actually a rather traumatic event.

[MJO812]

Slightly more stronger going into 8 than yesterday 

[stadiumwave]

PNA forecast staying closer to neutral now & not as deeply negative & trends positive in later:

 

And, PNA for the most part keeps verifying above forecasts:

 

FWIW 

[stadiumwave]

14 day forecast verification for PNA is pretty bad, more positive of the 14 day forecast...take note moving  forward

[so_whats_happening]

21 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

It's actually a little bit interesting, the way things are unfolding for the PV. Having previously seen the wave 1 tropospheric precursor pattern (displacement). In the weeks prior. Followed by the displacement event we've all been monitoring in the stratosphere now. Now, looking at some ensemble runs moving forward. We're resembling something pretty close to the wave 2 precursor (split). Which, if we take into consideration what looks to be a meaningful phase 7 mjo transit upcoming (known for PV disruption). Plus the associated WWB mentioned out at the dateline. That should act to give another boost to the AAM. If I'm recalling correctly, split events are typically achieved with a wave 1 attack (preconditioning) followed up by wave 2. Added all up raises an eyebrow a little bit. I'll just add, "setbacks" (or vice versa) from a European perspective doesn't necessarily equal the same to someone in the US for anyone reading.

 

 

This is correct. So in QBO-E years it is fairly typical to see a disturbed SPV early on just as we are seeing in November and early December, namely a wave 1 response takes place. QBO-W years tend to have this take place around January leading to a stronger SPV (take last year as an example. The wave 1 response is due in part to a strong MJO passage through phase 3. Within about 2-3 weeks we typically see the passage through phase 7 (which is about where we are). The phase 7 is tricky though because it does not always push into a split scenario but I think we have a better chance with a much more pronounced stratospheric ridging staying in place and strength.

I would like to see more negatively tilted troughs into the Atlantic to start to get more excited for that potential, these are the mechanisms to allow for poleward eddy flux versus a deflection as bluewave has noted. The Pacific has shown many negatively tilted troughs over the past few weeks hence the already well pronounced ridge.

I hope we can get some type of Scandi ridging in the troposphere as we move into December. This is why I have been saying for awhile now I will wait to see that potential split scenario as we get close to the end of December but this remains to be seen. First let us actually have a push into phase 7 and see how the pattern lands. I will not be surprised to see with this displacement event a brief period of wintry weather in December (mid month area) to us quickly recovering and maybe having an early January 'thaw' type setup. 

[so_whats_happening]

This is a wonderful site for people to get lessons from and implore many folks to check it out. There are a few tropical courses that touch on this subject of SPV and MJO propagation that could be very useful. I believe it is still free and no student email is needed.

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

I've seen plenty of acknowledgement that early December will warm again before the hammer drops. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Slightly more stronger going into 8 than yesterday 

I'm so pissed I forgot to incorporate the MJO behavior of my primary analog into the December forecast....what an oversight.

[jm1220]

11 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.

I mean one day we will have that pattern in place again but for the last few winters it’s been uniquely set up to shaft this area. The results speak for themselves. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I mean one day we will have that pattern in place again but for the last few winters it’s been uniquely set up to shaft this area. The results speak for themselves. 

I've been shafted, as well....last normal snowfall season was 2017-2018....haven't come within 10" since.

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

He’s probably right regarding social media. But it has been discussed fairly widely here.