2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec

trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

[snowman19]

[EasternLI]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec

trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

Sharp rise in momentum starting to percolate into the circulation. Good stuff. 

[stadiumwave]

CFS Weeklies just now got on board with some cold. Has been baby stepping for several runs. 

NOV 27-DEC 7

[donsutherland1]

Here's the evolution of the CFSv2 forecast for December. It should be noted that all the timeframes, the CFSv2 is not yet in its high skill area.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For Washington, DC to New York City, a PNA+ is far more common for days with 6" or more snowfall except during the second half of February and afterward when the wave lengths shorten. New York City statistics since 1950:

For January, when wave lengths are at their longest, a PNA+ was present for 92.5% of days with 6" or more snowfall in New York City.

For Boston, the PNA+ plays a smaller role.

Yup PNA is king south of New England. NYC's not reaching 4" for December if that western trough hangs out for the entirety of the month. That pretty much guarantees a BN winter for us. Forgot who said it but 19" is likely a (generous) upper bound for our snow totals this winter. 

[FPizz]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

February 2006 wasn't all that bad. At least we got a return to cold, and a snowstorm on the 11th-12th. I'd gladly sign up for that after the last 3 or 4 winters.

But please, no repeat of 1989-90, when spring pretty much began in January.

Feb 06 was a good month in CNJ, 20.5", 89/90 stunk, but teased us with a Nov snowstorm.

[stadiumwave]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's the evolution of the CFSv2 forecast for December. It should be noted that all the timeframes, the CFSv2 is not yet in its high skill area.

 

High skill is like the last 3 days, lol. But hey, it is not usually that bad with the end result. 

[kazimirkai]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

Allan Huffman going with a cold January in the E US. I wonder if this is because of a prog for a very early SSWE followed by a lagged cold effect in Jan: I’d be more than happy with this. I’d love another cold Jan! Not having a warmer than normal La Niña winter in the majority of the SE including another cold Jan would be a victory!

This seems reasonable. I think this early December cold wave is mainly driven by high frequency signals, mainly the 7 phase MJO, but i think its too early for the SSW to be having any impact. Roundy thinks there will be some warmth in late December as the MJO move back towards 1 and 2 (abeit prolonged due to an easterly eq. Rossby wave continuing convection in region 7), but it seems like it may have a weaker signal at that point so influences from things like the SSW on top of the low-frequency state (troughy in the east) would lead so something like this. 

[kazimirkai]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Sharp rise in momentum starting to percolate into the circulation. Good stuff. 

Warm waters into the W pac. from this westerly wind burst are priming the ENSO for a real shift come the next big event. 

[kazimirkai]

48 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yup PNA is king south of New England. NYC's not reaching 4" for December if that western trough hangs out for the entirety of the month. That pretty much guarantees a BN winter for us. Forgot who said it but 19" is likely a (generous) upper bound for our snow totals this winter. 

Pretty uncommon for short-range oscillations like the PNA to remain strongly in either state for a whole month. I wouldn't put too much weight on this negative flip, though it might explain the great lakes track that seems more likely during the latter half of nov. and perhaps during the first week of dec.

[jm1220]

48 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yup PNA is king south of New England. NYC's not reaching 4" for December if that western trough hangs out for the entirety of the month. That pretty much guarantees a BN winter for us. Forgot who said it but 19" is likely a (generous) upper bound for our snow totals this winter. 

If we can fire up some Miller Bs that don’t develop too late, NYC has a chance at 20”. There very likely won’t be Miller As during a Nina, and clippers as we’ve seen have largely died out. Maybe a lucky SWFE can tack on 4-6” like the one last winter. But that’s really NYC’s path to anything near normal in this regime.