2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec

trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

[snowman19]

[EasternLI]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec

trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

Sharp rise in momentum starting to percolate into the circulation. Good stuff. 

[stadiumwave]

CFS Weeklies just now got on board with some cold. Has been baby stepping for several runs. 

NOV 27-DEC 7

[donsutherland1]

Here's the evolution of the CFSv2 forecast for December. It should be noted that all the timeframes, the CFSv2 is not yet in its high skill area.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For Washington, DC to New York City, a PNA+ is far more common for days with 6" or more snowfall except during the second half of February and afterward when the wave lengths shorten. New York City statistics since 1950:

For January, when wave lengths are at their longest, a PNA+ was present for 92.5% of days with 6" or more snowfall in New York City.

For Boston, the PNA+ plays a smaller role.

Yup PNA is king south of New England. NYC's not reaching 4" for December if that western trough hangs out for the entirety of the month. That pretty much guarantees a BN winter for us. Forgot who said it but 19" is likely a (generous) upper bound for our snow totals this winter. 

[FPizz]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

February 2006 wasn't all that bad. At least we got a return to cold, and a snowstorm on the 11th-12th. I'd gladly sign up for that after the last 3 or 4 winters.

But please, no repeat of 1989-90, when spring pretty much began in January.

Feb 06 was a good month in CNJ, 20.5", 89/90 stunk, but teased us with a Nov snowstorm.

[stadiumwave]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's the evolution of the CFSv2 forecast for December. It should be noted that all the timeframes, the CFSv2 is not yet in its high skill area.

 

High skill is like the last 3 days, lol. But hey, it is not usually that bad with the end result.