2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

La nina by itself isn't always bad. Just as a deep -IOD isn't always bad by itself. But those two things in combination almost certainly spells a cooked winter.

If you have a la nina, you need a +IOD or near neutral IOD to have a chance. If you have a deep -IOD, you need an el nino or near ENSO neutral.

La nina and deep -IOD is just not going to work. Unless you're looking for a blowtorch winter and very little snow.

Not the case for New England. You tend to speak as though your climo applies to everyone.

[snowman19]

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I have to admit that it would be funny to see the NE Pacific cool back more than the W Pac and see how weenie forecasters would then spin it. Of course @snowman19would have a blast!

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I have to admit that it would be funny to see the NE Pacific cool back more than the W Pac and see how weenie forecasters would then spin it.

Just this morning a pro met (no, not JB) said the warm blob was strengthening. Funny how some live in the Land of Make Believe

[anthonymm]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

Was this one posted before? I get them all mixed up with their typically fictitious southern battle zones and NE blizzard watches and huge snowstorms and N Plains polar vortices and amazingly enough always warm/dry in the W where E US wx weenies conveniently don’t care:

 

https://www.powder.com/news/east-coast-blizzard-watch-winter

*Edit: I just noticed that this is the one posted yesterday that I even commented on lol. I told you guys I get these mixed up and this is proof!

Lol yeah the pattern in recent years has been the total opposite in fact. Cold out west, blowtorch in the east.

[anthonymm]

17 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah the winter pattern is set. The warm blob's gonna go away, the western pac will boil. We'll get a horrible zonal pac jet that floods the east with warm mild air, and the rockies and west will get freezing cold and snowstorms every day. 22-23 / 23-24 repeat, but possibly worse.

[snowman19]

If this dry pattern continues into October and it looks like it will, my fear is that this drought has a chance of becoming worse than last fall….that dry pattern didn’t start until after mid-August, this one started at the tail end of July

[roardog]

I think these warm blobs are nothing more than a result of the pattern and not an influencer of the pattern. I think it could help feedback but no way can it overpower other influencing factors IMO.

[bluewave]

I think the warm blobs can begin to exert some influence on the pattern when they become anchored to the subsurface like we are seeing now across most of the WPAC to North of Hawaii.

Last winter we had one of the deepest troughs for the last 20 years emerge to the east of Japan. The surface SSTs didn’t cool very much compared to past deep trough instances since the subsurface had accumulated to much heat. So the strong gradient remained between the area east of Japan and Siberia. This lead to frequent jet extensions.

Plus when the record SSTs are located near the Kuroshio Current in the WPAC and Gulf Stream in the Atlantic, they can help to initiate Rossby wave breaking which have a big influence on hemispheric circulation patterns. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

 

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I have to admit that it would be funny to see the NE Pacific cool back more than the W Pac and see how weenie forecasters would then spin it. Of course @snowman19would have a blast!

The funny part to me is that 2013 actually did do that. Similar timing. There seems to be this notion in here that there was this static warm pool in the NE Pacific for months on end that year. When that was not the case from what I've been seeing looking back at the data.

 

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Yeah the winter pattern is set. The warm blob's gonna go away, the western pac will boil. We'll get a horrible zonal pac jet that floods the east with warm mild air, and the rockies and west will get freezing cold and snowstorms every day. 22-23 / 23-24 repeat, but possibly worse.