DJln491 Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 eh, better than 6z anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Looks like sleet/zr for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like sleet/zr for some areas. Nothing wrong with that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing wrong with that on the ice train! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Looks like we'll have more nickles than dimers in the coming weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Euro looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Euro was def a tick colder than the 06z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Most folks don’t sniff freezing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Most folks don’t sniff freezing Warmest temps will likely be overnight Thursday into predawn Friday with FROPA. Could spike brief 40F and then temps drop during Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Warmest temps will likely be overnight Thursday into predawn Friday with FROPA. Could spike brief 40F and then temps drop during Friday morning. I think that can be reserved for near and SE of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think that can be reserved for near and SE of 95 I think most of SNE (and even up into CNE) will spike pretty decently. We have 925mb temps of like +4 or +5 and you mix that down with FROPA. I don’t think it really matters in terms of melting much snow since it’s dry by that point with lower dews and at night so no aid from sun. But it may briefly melt any glaze that happens from during the day. If we end up with a more suppressed solution though then maybe it never gets that warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think that can be reserved for near and SE of 95 And thats the NAM which is on the colder side of guidance. The ECMWF is significantly warmer. Temps will shoot up briefly pretty much everywhere in CT for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Tough forecast right now. Euro definitely the farthest to the right with warm air and SLP riding up north. The other models seem to be all in agreement with the low transfer happening south of us going over around ACK ish, helping to lock in the cold air. Snow growth isn't impressive at all. Most of the lift occuring outside the DGZ on most of the models ive seen. Which is pretty typical with these type of systems punching in warm air aloft as we get going. In terms of snow, id probably lean pretty conservative. Still looks like its going to be a mess though on Thursday and probably a tough call for schools. But with the sleet and freezing rain forecast i think most will close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Tough forecast right now. Euro definitely the farthest to the right with warm air and SLP riding up north. The other models seem to be all in agreement with the low transfer happening south of us going over around ACK ish, helping to lock in the cold air. Snow growth isn't impressive at all. Most of the lift occuring outside the DGZ on most of the models ive seen. Which is pretty typical with these type of systems punching in warm air aloft as we get going. In terms of snow, id probably lean pretty conservative. Still looks like its going to be a mess though on Thursday and probably a tough call for schools. But with the sleet and freezing rain forecast i think most will close. That’s where my head is. If I can find time to write probably start with a 1-3” snow call statewide with mix to rain, widespread cancellations. Schools won’t risk it even if temps spike earlier in the day. I could see a final call that’s 2-4” with mix to dry slot/drizzle tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think most of SNE (and even up into CNE) will spike pretty decently. We have 925mb temps of like +4 or +5 and you mix that down with FROPA. I don’t think it really matters in terms of melting much snow since it’s dry by that point with lower dews and at night so no aid from sun. But it may briefly melt any glaze that happens from during the day. If we end up with a more suppressed solution though then maybe it never gets that warm. These situations where it snowing at sea 20 or 30 or so mile SE of CC while it's pinging and going to zr in ALB, and still snowing moderately in HFD, tend to foster a "tuck" slosh back. That set up is more correlated to the fact that it is quite cold ahead and thus there is a lot of low level mass --> to meso forcing. The models are already coherently depicting a closing beta low down over SE mass about 2/3rds of the way thru this, and when that happens, a cold surge my tumble back S out of S NH. I could see the snow burst going to a freezing drizzle in that cold slosh as the top of the inversion remains saturated. Yeah, the front scours it all away and that's probably unavoidable. But this is a gainer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Advisories up for BOX, 1-4" of snow/sleet/zr. seems about right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 GYX's winter product slashed much of southern/central ME from 4-6 to 1-3, which surprised me based on what I'm seeing in here. Is that a function of less QPF with a more southerly track? Basically a nuisance event either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 42 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: And thats the NAM which is on the colder side of guidance. The ECMWF is significantly warmer. Temps will shoot up briefly pretty much everywhere in CT for a few hours I’ll sell that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 One thing regarding schools. Many districts have had zero snow days. So less pressure to hesitate calling em off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 HRRR is damn cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 HRRR is meager looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2025 Author Share Posted February 4, 2025 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR is damn cold with steady flurries Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 NAM is pretty far south but decent thump in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: One thing regarding schools. Many districts have had zero snow days. So less pressure to hesitate calling em off. Our schools allow one off day for snow and then it's the ole covid business model - HOME LEARNING. Plus is our school calendar is locked in and the last day is virtually cemented in time - minus is the lack of that last minute fun day off we all had as kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM is pretty far south but decent thump in SNE. Everything seems to be coming south. EC is on its own with that look. Still dont expect a whole lot of snow out of this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup Down here in the tropics of New England that may actually be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 WWA posted URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 309 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-051100- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.250206T0900Z-250206T1800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 309 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 3K NAM is anemic. Basically a little -SN then sleet/ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 4, 2025 Share Posted February 4, 2025 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3K NAM is anemic. Basically a little -SN then sleet/ZR. basically 0.25" > region wide .. where's the beef? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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