February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs understandably not as good as 12z, but not bad.

It’s actually more amplified but has a wider spread of solutions so less concentrated snow mean 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I like to look at 700mb RH and it does look like a slight improvement. 

More amplified wave, slightly more suppressive flow. If the flow relaxes as the wave propagates east it’s better but no way to know that. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think we get a 12”+ event. That’s asking a lot in a Nina even in a good pattern. But I think there is a “decent” chance we can pull off a more widespread 6-10 type storm. I think there is a good chance we can get a 3-6 type deal or some combo of multiple events in those ranges. 

So are you kinda backing off your expectations of the pattern? Or before were you just saying that the pattern just looked like that, not that you thought it had 12+" potential in the first place?

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So are you kinda backing off your expectations of the pattern? Or before were you just saying that the pattern just looked like that, not that you thought it had 12+" potential in the first place?

Getting a 12”+ storm is always going to be a tall order that requires a lot of luck, unless we’re in a west based moderate (or even strong) Nino with the perfect -NAO.

[Ji]

I can’t remember a more frustrating winter

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I can’t remember a more frustrating winter

Remember when I asked you if you were ever grateful for snow when you got it? This is why I asked that. We've been nearly shutout twice in the last 5 years. Yet somehow this winter is more frustrating to you than either one of those?

[Fozz]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

I can’t remember a more frustrating winter

A winter with weeks of January snowpack and multiple light to moderate events (and major storms if you’re in southern MD) is sure as hell much better than some other recent seasons.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Fozz said:

A winter with weeks of January snowpack and multiple light to moderate events (and major events if you’re in southern MD) is sure as hell much better than some other recent seasons.

Very true

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

I can’t remember a more frustrating winter

Yes and no. The BN temps raise expectations naturally that are then fed with snow crazy modeling. It's average down your way while I'm 43% of average. I should be the one complaining...so I will.

I can't remember a more frustrating winter.

[aldie 22]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

I can’t remember a more frustrating winter

Are you an on purpose idiot or is it an accident?

[Ji]

Are you an on purpose idiot or is it an accident?

No it’s on purpose. We should have way more snow than we should. It’s basically been a wall to wall winter. It’s like having 7 great drives and scoring 6 fields goals

[Warm Nose]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

No it’s on purpose. We should have way more snow than we should. It’s basically been a wall to wall winter. It’s like having 7 great drives and scoring 6 fields goals

... much better than 7 drives and no points.

It's all about perspective.

[Heisy]

Mitch we all need an 18z euro Ai update that it has a 6-12” event


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

I can’t remember a more frustrating winter

You pretty much say this... Every. Single. Winter.

[bncho]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

I can’t remember a more frustrating winter

 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Mitch we all need an 18z euro Ai update that it has a 6-12” event


.

There never was a 12z. They only posted an 18z.

That said, 18z is a total miss. Seriously.

Only thing interesting is the end of the run that'll likely be gone in 6 hours.

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You pretty much say this... Every. Single. Winter.

My personal favorite - can you guess which winter this post followed?

 

 

 

 

let me give a hint, it starts with an 09 and ends with a -10

[Heisy]

There never was a 12z. They only posted an 18z.
That said, 18z is a total miss. Seriously.
Only thing interesting is the end of the run that'll likely be gone in 6 hours.

Ugh yikes


.

[Heisy]

There never was a 12z. They only posted an 18z.
That said, 18z is a total miss. Seriously.
Only thing interesting is the end of the run that'll likely be gone in 6 hours.

I think this was the new updated Ai as well?


.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

There never was a 12z. They only posted an 18z.

That said, 18z is a total miss. Seriously.

Only thing interesting is the end of the run that'll likely be gone in 6 hours.

Well, coastal NC and SE VA get hit, so I stand corrected.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

I think this was the new updated Ai as well?


.

No, that's not out until 2/25.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Got to love ya. Only you would look past a cold pattern that hasn’t even started yet to the next possible torch. 

The 3-8" snow event with -AO at -3 wasn't part of the cold pattern?  These next 2 rainstorms are frustrating. Supposingly, we are going to get well into the 50s both times. The Pacific pattern isn't bad for these storms. 

Gawx did research in the ENSO thread that showed, we have a chance at having the most DJF +PNA on record [CPC]. Out of non-Nino years, he says it will be the most +PNA DJF on record (going back to 1948).  We all know how -PNA has been shutout pattern as of late, so it is a little concerning that DJF +PNA this year didn't produce more snow.. we aren't going to be so cold probably in future Winters. 

[snowmagnet]

22 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

My personal favorite - can you guess which winter this post followed?

 

 

 

 

let me give a hint, it starts with an 09 and ends with a -10

My first winter on here was 2016, which I thought was a fantastic year. More storms would have been great, but I distinctly remember Ji complaining about the terrible winter.  

[brooklynwx99]

honestly, the AIFS hasn't been any more consistent than any other model, and this storm is 8 days out. too much emphasis is placed on it IMO

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I can’t remember a more frustrating winter

I can two years ago when we got 1.6" of snow for the entire winter. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

honestly, the AIFS hasn't been any more consistent than any other model, and this storm is 8 days out. too much emphasis is placed on it IMO

I wanted to be impressed this year - which is kind of my opinion on AI in general lol. It’s consistency is admirable, but think a run of remarkable consistency in the AIFS means the same thing as a consistent run in any model… take it seriously then. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I can two years ago when we got 1.6" of snow for the entire winter. 

Wow! That's 8x more than I got, lol

[Ji]

I can two years ago when we got 1.6" of snow for the entire winter. 

Yes, but that was shut the blinds winter so there wasn’t much tracking and nothing to invest in

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

No it’s on purpose. We should have way more snow than we should. It’s basically been a wall to wall winter. It’s like having 7 great drives and scoring 6 fields goals

Remember 2014-15 before the V-day squall? Probably the most infuriating stretch ever.

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I wanted to be impressed this year - which is kind of my opinion on AI in general lol. It’s consistency is admirable, but think a run of remarkable consistency in the AIFS means the same thing as a consistent run in any model… take it seriously then. 

AI models, being underdispersive, tend to latch onto a solution early on. It’s great when they get the storm track correct. It’s an overconfident whiff in other cases where they get it wrong, though. Other than not being based on (and constrained by) the laws of physics, it’s one main weakness of AIWP models.