clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Please god let the NAM be right for once. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 QPF is 1.5"+ DCA metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nam appears to be bullying that Lobe north of Maine due to the strength of the vort in KY/WV. I never support bullying, but in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 How about that CCB backend! If that's coming to fruition, double digit totals despite any brief period of sleet 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 6 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I never support bullying, but in this case This was a WET run near the heaviest QPF. There's a lot of dynamics at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: looks like around 8 for cities? Somebody with WB can post. Prob some sleet in there so likely lower amounts I think it's a good bit more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 I'm not mad at it. Just needs a few degrees colder. This far out, can't really ask for much more from the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: looks like around 8 for cities? Somebody with WB can post. Prob some sleet in there so likely lower amounts PW is over a foot for DCA on 10:1 at 84... but I believe @high risk mentioned sleet is included. But we get like maybe only an hour or 2 of sleet... so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 2 hours ago, bncho said: If we could get that then we'd be in almost 18 inch territory. Pretty much what the 18z Nam has. It must have read my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Sweet baby Jesus 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 Just now, yoda said: PW is over a foot for DCA on 10:1 at 84... but I believe @high risk mentioned sleet is included. But we get like maybe an hour or 2 of sleet... so... Yeah. Despite the Euro/UK, I think we see a period of sleet. Hopefully it's short 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 You have to love the depiction as modeled. Great WAA slug that thumps the **** out of most of us, followed by a near perfect pass at h5. Let's keep those UL's closed off as it passes south of the area and the modeled CCB piece is not just fantasy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Don't know if anyone noticed, but the sfc low track was about 40 miles south of previous NAM runs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm not mad at it. Just needs a few degrees colder. This far out, can't really ask for much more from the NAM id rather play with the fire of the precip max over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Still snowing then as well. The NAM is a beatdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Probably also get another 1 to 3 hours of snow as well depending on location after the NAM run ends... so the totals may increase another inch or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 I'm not mad at it. Just needs a few degrees colder. This far out, can't really ask for much more from the NAMYou should do a livestream play by play for tonights gfs/euro runs. I lurk on this board and just track the model runs. Id love to learn more about what exactly it is i should be paying attention to. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 To say the Euro and NAM are worlds apart is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 2 minutes ago, yoda said: PW is over a foot for DCA on 10:1 at 84... but I believe @high risk mentioned sleet is included. But we get like maybe only an hour or 2 of sleet... so... Seems better than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 Just now, Terpeast said: Don't know if anyone noticed, but the sfc low track was about 40 miles south of previous NAM runs. Primary yes but the transfer is north off NC kinda countered that. The faster the transfer the bigger the hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2025 Author Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Don't know if anyone noticed, but the sfc low track was about 40 miles south of previous NAM runs. Positive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Still snowing then as well. The NAM is a beatdown. First NAMing of the year, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 That's a sweet look just north of DC proper. But DC certainly gets it good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Oh my. Wow, and it's snowing outside on a white ground as I type. NAM'ed. Officially 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 NAM’d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 6 minutes ago, yoda said: QPF is 1.5"+ DCA metro Even with the NAM overprediction of precip, that is a wild number for an event where the surface never gets above 28 degrees. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Don't know if anyone noticed, but the sfc low track was about 40 miles south of previous NAM runs. As a central MDer I'm not sure whether to root for that or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: To say the Euro and NAM are worlds apart is an understatement. I just wish it was the other way around 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2025 Share Posted January 3, 2025 NAM is precip happy though. I'd keep that in mind. Normally I'd peg the zone of S+ much farther north given mid level track, but strong 850-700 fronto may keep the snow max a little south of where one might expect. I still think nrn MD to far srn PA may be jack for now. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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