Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

He may of thought those were minus marks before the numbers Larry.

 He’s been trolling AmericanWx for years. You may not be familiar with his posts.

[Daniel Boone]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 He’s been trolling AmericanWx for years. You may not be familiar with his posts.

Oh, I didn't know. I don't understand people like that.

[Akeem the African Dream]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 He’s been trolling AmericanWx for years. You may not be familiar with his posts.

i think you have me confused with someone else 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS mid to upper 70s Christmas Day. Euro gets a small front through on Christmas but 70s on Christmas Eve. Yuck 

[PackGrad05]

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name="NorthHillsWx" userid="[emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]]]"] GFS mid to upper [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]s Christmas Day. Euro gets a small front through on Christmas but [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]s on Christmas Eve. Yuck 

Not surprising at all. It’s been such a cold start to the month, knew we’d snap back the other way.
With that said, GFS always shows extreme swings in long range. Probably more like upper [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]s.


.

[buckeyefan1]

12 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

i think you have me confused with someone else 

Nobody has you confused. Take your trolling somewhere else. This is the only warning you get 

[BooneWX]

I don’t fear the transition. I fear the staying power of the transition.

[wncsnow]

12 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I don’t fear the transition. I fear the staying power of the transition.

Yep, we have seen this song and dance many times. 

[tarheelwx]

6 weeks.  Right through the heart of winter.  Here it comes.  On the other hand, we were cold last January, but had very little to show for it.

TW

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Yep, we have seen this song and dance many times. 

Somehow always flips around Christmas and then finally full flips back to a favorable pattern in March

[eyewall]

A pattern shift was inevitable but hopefully something comes back in our favor in January. I am not giving up just yet. I still would not entirely rule out a 6 inch plus event this year for this neck of the woods. 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Yep, we have seen this song and dance many times. 

What are your thoughts of duration of the warmup/pattern change? 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

A pattern shift was inevitable but hopefully something comes back in our favor in January. I am not giving up just yet. I still would not entirely rule out a 6 inch plus event this year for this neck of the woods. 

Not even sure a 6”+ event is possible here anymore…

[neverSnowsLCSC]

It's literally not even winter yet. Calm down. It snowed almost a foot in Florida and the friggin Bayous last winter.

[NorthHillsWx]

I don’t think a lot appreciated last winter enough bc we were missing the “big storm” but we avoided can kicking and essentially had threats to track almost the entire winter period and had a warning level snow in February. Long ways to go 

[wncsnow]

19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What are your thoughts of duration of the warmup/pattern change? 

I have conflicting thoughts honestly. 

On one hand, the cold seems poised to stay on this side of the globe. Canada is frigid and looks to stay that way through at least the next month. We need a mechanism to keep driving it south. 

The Pacific is the main culprit here. Its roaring and record flooding is occurring in the NW. It can take a long time for the Pacific jet to behave the way we want it to after setting up like this. 

A lot of Mets who I respect still think January could be OK for us. There's a lot of uncertainty maybe more than normal due to the conflicting factors I have detailed. 

Another worry I have is the lack of a southern jet showing up in tne long range. A lot of the models and ensembles are going very dry for the rest of this month. 

My biggest worry is this pattern sets in longer than we want and the next thing you know its early February. Most of us haven't had an impactful winter storm in February or March in over a decade. I'm not sure it can come a major snowstorm late in the season anymore at our latitude. 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I have conflicting thoughts honestly. 

On one hand, the cold seems poised to stay on this side of the globe. Canada is frigid and looks to stay that way through at least the next month. We need a mechanism to keep driving it south. 

The Pacific is the main culprit here. Its roaring and record flooding is occurring in the NW. It can take a long time for the Pacific jet to behave the way we want it to after setting up like this. 

A lot of Mets who I respect still think January could be OK for us. There's a lot of uncertainty maybe more than normal due to the conflicting factors I have detailed. 

Another worry I have is the lack of a southern jet showing up in tne long range. A lot of the models and ensembles are going very dry for the rest of this month. 

My biggest worry is this pattern sets in longer than we want and the next thing you know its early February. Most of us haven't had an impactful winter storm in February or March in over a decade. I'm not sure it can come a major snowstorm late in the season anymore at our latitude. 

The lack of a southern jet is a semi-permanent feature that’s developed through the summer. Models looked like that was flipping coming into the month but nothing has changed. Until we get something coming from the southern stream the ripping northern and pac jet is going to kill us regardless of what cold is available. The ongoing drought is all you need to know about our southern stream energy through the fall. That’s going to be the biggest fail mechanism this winter I’m sure of it

[NorthHillsWx]

What’s amazing is that we’ve even been able to snow at all last year and some this year with these moisture starved shortwaves. It takes a potent shortwave to wring out moisture east of mountains with zero gulf connection or Atlantic development.
 

What caused all the nor Easter’s this summer? I know most of them didn’t cause a lot precip inland but it seemed there was a coastal low almost weekly over the summer. Was it just the well established eastern trough or was there a southern stream connection? I cannot remember I just know the obx took a beating 

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Another worry I have is the lack of a southern jet showing up in tne long range. A lot of the models and ensembles are going very dry for the rest of this month. 

 

 

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The lack of a southern jet is a semi-permanent feature that’s developed through the summer. Models looked like that was flipping coming into the month but nothing has changed. Until we get something coming from the southern stream the ripping northern and pac jet is going to kill us regardless of what cold is available. The ongoing drought is all you need to know about our southern stream energy through the fall. That’s going to be the biggest fail mechanism this winter I’m sure of it

 As we all know, La Niña favors a weaker than average southern jet and we’re solidly into La Niña (per the MEI/RONI). So, this is totally expected based on ENSO. I wouldn’t be surprised if it averages weaker than normal the rest of the winter. That’s the best bet. But as is normal, there are usually short periods of increased S jet from time to time even in La Niña just like there are usually short periods of weak S jet in El Nino.