Ji Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 i knew when JB went warm and snowless this winter....something was really of.....and it would be a much better winter 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 The 2nd wave looks better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 EURO suppresses the Jan 5-6 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 why is no one talking about the January 3rd flizzard? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: EURO suppresses the Jan 5-6 storm. omg--i thought it would suppress it to us---not miss us to the south lol. So it went from PA to NC and just skipped over us? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 minute ago, Ji said: why is no one talking about the January 3rd flizzard? GEPS still like Jan 3-4 a bit. Still 140 hours out somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: omg--i thought it would suppress it to us---not miss us to the south lol. So it went from PA to NC and just skipped over us? pretty much - i think it's gonna suppress the 9th/10th into the GoM. Isn't even that cold locally either, dc gets to 32 some of the days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m somewhere over Montana. Sarasota for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: pretty much - i think it's gonna suppress the 9th/10th into the GoM Further south, Bay of Campeche... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I'm not one to predict models, but if this cuts, it's 100% aliens. It's the drones. Blame it on the drones... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 dr no took the 00z storm from ohio to south carolina in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO suppresses the Jan 5-6 storm. This looks pretty good actually. I’ll take slightly south of us at 200 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 7 minutes ago, Ji said: omg--i thought it would suppress it to us---not miss us to the south lol. So it went from PA to NC and just skipped over us? Based on precedent, I’m not sure how you don’t see this as a good thing at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Based on precedent, I’m not sure how you don’t see this as a good thing at this point. ive seen this--when they go from Cutters to suppressed which is super rare they usually dont come back. Take a blend of GFS/EURO though and you got a winter storm watch 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Based on precedent, I’m not sure how you don’t see this as a good thing at this point. Far better than showing cutter tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Looks like a 4-8 incher. @ravensrule thoughts? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 GEFS looks better for the 7th-8th then precious runs, btw. I’d still be worrying about suppression but the signal is much better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS looks better for the 7th-8th then precious runs, btw. I’d still be worrying about suppression but the signal is much better. This is proof why you shouldn't worry too much about the OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @ravensrule thoughts? Randy would definitely kick that out of bed. He expects a BECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEPS still like Jan 3-4 a bit. Still 140 hours out somehow Maybe we can try to eek into a small event with this one like with the mid Jan storms last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 With the advertised pattern, there shouldn't be a cutter problem. A Miller B evolution sure. Probably favored given all the NS vorticity flying around. Most likely failure mode would be suppression. There is some crazy confluence on that Euro run. The 50-50 vortex retrogrades southwestward towards New England lol. A quasi-stationary 50-50 is an indication of a true NA block, but that's too much of a good thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Im totally good with suppression 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 minute ago, CAPE said: With the advertised pattern, there shouldn't be a cutter problem. A Miller B evolution sure. Probably favored given all the NS vorticity flying around. Most likely failure mode would be suppression. There is some crazy confluence on that Euro run. The 50-50 vortex retrogrades southwestward towards New England lol. A quasi-stationary 50-50 is an indication of a true NA block, but that's too much of a good thing. So assuming there’s not a repeat of 0z and shows nada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO suppresses the Jan 5-6 storm. Today's 12z run plus prior 3 12z and 0z runs of the Euro operational. Expect more changes to come. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: A quasi-stationary 50-50 is an indication of a true NA block, but that's too much of a good thing. Isn't it crazy that this has been our biggest issue in recent years? We can't get a balanced favorable telleconnection(s) anymore...it has to be off the charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 cutoff block on eps... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 EPS really quite surprised for the 8th-10th shot. Won’t speak to the H5 but it’s a notable step back from 00z. Maybe a hair better for the 5th-6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: cutoff block on eps... That is an epic look. The op probably overdoes it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 53 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: idk - this looks like a nice spot to be in. Need a little colder @NorthArlington101 anytime I see the finger of death pointing at the appalachians and up toward DC and Baltimore it’s gonna be a fun radar to watch! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS really quite surprised for the 8th-10th shot. Won’t speak to the H5 but it’s a notable step back from 00z. Maybe a hair better for the 5th-6th 6th not a southern slider on Eps. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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