2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Floydbuster]

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent.

Be ready, it is on the way.

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent.

Be ready, it is on the way.

I mean, the switch flipped somewhat early this year

[TriPol]

4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent.

Be ready, it is on the way.

Dude. The GFS showed us 40 inch blizzards all winter and now its showing us massive hurricanes hitting everywhere all at once. Someone has to be messing with it. I trust the JMA more than the 384 hour GFS.

[TheDreamTraveler]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

Dude. The GFS showed us 40 inch blizzards all winter and now its showing us massive hurricanes hitting everywhere all at once. Someone has to be messing with it. I trust the JMA more than the 384 hour GFS.

They're not saying that we're going to get massive hurricanes just that the models are showing an active signal coming up which usually means we'll see some storms form somewhere. The models showing so many consistently big hurricanes is a good sign we're about to enter an active period for a bit.

[cptcatz]

Euro hour 360, just saying that crazy GFS hour 384 image has model support...

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Euro hour 360, just saying that crazy GFS hour 384 image has model support...

Hour 384 in regard to tropical development minus well be hour 1000+.  This scenario will change at least 10x before we even get to hour 200 let alone 384.  Interesting to look at but whether it is the 18z gfs or even this 0z Euro run for it to play out this way is unlikely.  The only thing that these model runs tell me is that there will be an uptick in activity and wait and see what happens over the next 3-5 days.   What I have noticed is that the models are pushing everything back 5-10 days which is also a typical caveat of modeling.  

What happened last year we were searching for 10 days out and hour 384 etc. and then we had storms like Hurricane Heleen blow up out of nowhere which could be the case this year.  

I would not watch 384 hours out but rather just make sure we are not missing something closer in time.

I think the next 3-4 days of model watching and looking at other things like the visible and water vapor maps will be useful tools to locate harmless little low level or mid-level swirls that become something bigger in time.

 

Mean time here in Kitty Hawk where I still am the strong gusty NE winds have begun again, and the beaches are once again closed to swimmers due to heavy surf and dangerous rip currents under 82-85 water temps.

[ldub23]

10 hours ago, TriPol said:

You know what? It’s 2025. Let’s do this. Let’s push FEMA and the NWS to their breaking points and see how that goes.

12 hours  later the GFS says wait till next  year.

[FPizz]

34 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

12 hours  later the GFS says wait till next  year.

Shocked!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Hour 384 in regard to tropical development minus well be hour 1000+.  This scenario will change at least 10x before we even get to hour 200 let alone 384.  Interesting to look at but whether it is the 18z gfs or even this 0z Euro run for it to play out this way is unlikely.  The only thing that these model runs tell me is that there will be an uptick in activity and wait and see what happens over the next 3-5 days.   What I have noticed is that the models are pushing everything back 5-10 days which is also a typical caveat of modeling.  

What happened last year we were searching for 10 days out and hour 384 etc. and then we had storms like Hurricane Heleen blow up out of nowhere which could be the case this year.  

I would not watch 384 hours out but rather just make sure we are not missing something closer in time.

I think the next 3-4 days of model watching and looking at other things like the visible and water vapor maps will be useful tools to locate harmless little low level or mid-level swirls that become something bigger in time.

 

Mean time here in Kitty Hawk where I still am the strong gusty NE winds have begun again, and the beaches are once again closed to swimmers due to heavy surf and dangerous rip currents under 82-85 water temps.

This is 100% common sense to anyone who has been following the tropics the last 20 years. The globals after 120 hours should only be used as a tool to see where development potential exists. 
The first few waves will likely be sacrificial in moistening the MDR. As we head into late August it’s looking more likely we see at least a few long track MDR storms. They often recurve. Like you mentioned the real threat may come from last minute home grown development. 

[nycwinter]

16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This is 100% common sense to anyone who has been following the tropics the last 20 years. The globals after 120 hours should only be used as a tool to see where development potential exists. 
The first few waves will likely be sacrificial in moistening the MDR. As we head into late August it’s looking more likely we see at least a few long track MDR storms. They often recurve. Like you mentioned the real threat may come from last minute home grown development. 

not all recurve irma for example at one point way out in the atlantic it was already north of the islands yet with a strong ridge pressing westward and south irma went wsw for a day or 2.

[Boston Bulldog]

Lots of talk nationally of what may constitute a recession indicator for our economy.

Looking around here, seeing some recession indicators for tropical weather comprehension, weather model fluency, and the understanding of the relationship between time and numerical weather prediction. Specifically 6 threads since Chantal, and only a 50mph fish storm in the subtropics to show for it. What are we doing here? I guess the inactive period truly was inactive, despite loud opposition.

Might be controversial, but I don’t care what’s over Chad right now.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Lots of talk nationally of what may constitute a recession indicator for our economy.

Looking around here, seeing some recession indicators for tropical weather comprehension, weather model fluency, and the understanding of the relationship between time and numerical weather prediction. Specifically 6 threads since Chantal, and only a 50mph fish storm in the subtropics to show for it. What are we doing here? I guess the inactive period truly was inactive, despite loud opposition.

Might be controversial, but I don’t care what’s over Chad right now.

What’s over Chad right now does have down stream implications. If the Sahel were experiencing a drought it would likely lead to a below normal season. Since that’s not the case watching waves in their embriotic state offers a glimpse of activity down the road. Anything more then that, as in locking in 360 hours global runs is pure speculation.

[Boston Bulldog]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What’s over Chad right now does have down stream implications. If the Sahel were experiencing a drought it would likely lead to a below normal season. Since that’s not the case watching waves in their embriotic state offers a glimpse of activity down the road. Anything more than that, as in locking in 360 hours global runs is pure speculation.

Thanks for sharing, you reminded me of the Landsea paper on the Sahel Monsoon, great point!

[GaWx]

 TSR just updated their forecast from last month:

-ACE increased markedly from 126 to 144. This compares to the CSU’s 145 and the Euro seasonal’s ~155.
-The # of NS/H/MH increased slightly from 15/7/3 to 16/8/3. 
-However, US impacts remained the same at 4 NS/2 H.

 

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastAugust2025.pdf

[WxWatcher007]

55 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Lots of talk nationally of what may constitute a recession indicator for our economy.

Looking around here, seeing some recession indicators for tropical weather comprehension, weather model fluency, and the understanding of the relationship between time and numerical weather prediction. Specifically 6 threads since Chantal, and only a 50mph fish storm in the subtropics to show for it. What are we doing here? I guess the inactive period truly was inactive, despite loud opposition.

Might be controversial, but I don’t care what’s over Chad right now.

As you know, it used to be the case that we didn’t start threads unless there was an invest or area of interest near a coastline…

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As you know, it used to be the case that we didn’t start threads unless there was an invest or area of interest near a coastline…

 I think that’s a good guideline, but I feel there are exceptions. For example, due to good model support (most importantly including ensembles) for a strong western Atlantic hurricane from it, I feel that the thread for the AEW still in W Africa, despite it not yet being an invest and it not even being on the TWO, is already easily warranted. It will almost definitely be made an Invest and will make the TWO soon.
 
 I just posted the rather ominous looking 6Z Euro ensemble for it. I see no problem with already having posts about it siphoned off to its own thread so as to allow this main thread to not be as cluttered. Also, should it end up being a storm, we’d then have posts from further back in time all in one thread to look back at to see how it evolved on the models early on.

[GaWx]

“Prediction remains on track for above-normal Atlantic hurricane season”

Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service updated the number of expected named storms to 13-18 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-5 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). 

The adjusted ranges are for the entire season from June 1 though November 30, and are inclusive of the four named tropical storms that have already formed. In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes. 

The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season. This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/prediction-remains-on-track-for-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season

——————
 I’ve never been a fan of these wide ranges, especially 2-5 MH in this case, but otherwise I appreciate the availability of their predictions.

[WxWatcher007]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I think that’s a good guideline, but I feel there are exceptions. For example, due to good model support (most importantly including ensembles) for a strong western Atlantic hurricane from it, I feel that the thread for the AEW still in W Africa, despite it not yet being an invest and it not even being on the TWO, is already easily warranted. It will almost definitely be made an Invest and will make the TWO soon.
 
 I just posted the rather ominous looking 6Z Euro ensemble for it. I see no problem with already having posts about it siphoned off to its own thread so as to allow this main thread to not be as cluttered. Also, should it end up being a storm, we’d then have posts from further back in time all in one thread to look back at to see how it evolved on the models early on.

Not to get on a gatekeeper high horse lol but you can definitely justify a thread and analyze as an experienced poster here. Barry (god love ‘em) starting a thread on anything that swirls with an op that is devoid of original information for readers isn’t helpful imo.