2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Floydbuster]

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent.

Be ready, it is on the way.

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent.

Be ready, it is on the way.

I mean, the switch flipped somewhat early this year

[TriPol]

4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent.

Be ready, it is on the way.

Dude. The GFS showed us 40 inch blizzards all winter and now its showing us massive hurricanes hitting everywhere all at once. Someone has to be messing with it. I trust the JMA more than the 384 hour GFS.

[TheDreamTraveler]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

Dude. The GFS showed us 40 inch blizzards all winter and now its showing us massive hurricanes hitting everywhere all at once. Someone has to be messing with it. I trust the JMA more than the 384 hour GFS.

They're not saying that we're going to get massive hurricanes just that the models are showing an active signal coming up which usually means we'll see some storms form somewhere. The models showing so many consistently big hurricanes is a good sign we're about to enter an active period for a bit.

[cptcatz]

Euro hour 360, just saying that crazy GFS hour 384 image has model support...

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Euro hour 360, just saying that crazy GFS hour 384 image has model support...

Hour 384 in regard to tropical development minus well be hour 1000+.  This scenario will change at least 10x before we even get to hour 200 let alone 384.  Interesting to look at but whether it is the 18z gfs or even this 0z Euro run for it to play out this way is unlikely.  The only thing that these model runs tell me is that there will be an uptick in activity and wait and see what happens over the next 3-5 days.   What I have noticed is that the models are pushing everything back 5-10 days which is also a typical caveat of modeling.  

What happened last year we were searching for 10 days out and hour 384 etc. and then we had storms like Hurricane Heleen blow up out of nowhere which could be the case this year.  

I would not watch 384 hours out but rather just make sure we are not missing something closer in time.

I think the next 3-4 days of model watching and looking at other things like the visible and water vapor maps will be useful tools to locate harmless little low level or mid-level swirls that become something bigger in time.

 

Mean time here in Kitty Hawk where I still am the strong gusty NE winds have begun again, and the beaches are once again closed to swimmers due to heavy surf and dangerous rip currents under 82-85 water temps.

[ldub23]

10 hours ago, TriPol said:

You know what? It’s 2025. Let’s do this. Let’s push FEMA and the NWS to their breaking points and see how that goes.

12 hours  later the GFS says wait till next  year.