October 2024

[SACRUS]

 

Departures through 10/23

EWR: +3.2
JFK: +2.9
NYC: +2.2
ISP: +1.8
LGA: + 1.5

[MANDA]

Ugly looking!

[Big Jims Videos]

Cranberry farmers are taking a serious hit - especially if we don't get rain in November - this is my piece from yesterday. I love visiting these farms - the visuals are stunning. 

https://newjersey.news12.com/farmer-weeks-without-rain-is-impacting-new-jerseys-cranberry-harvest

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Monday morning looks to be the coldest morning of the fall so far…

 

then we quickly rebound mid week 

I'm a little nervous about Sunday night. Right now I think 33 or 34 so the growing season can continue here, but a very close call. My pole lima beans are still producing heavily and will keep doing that up until a freeze. If we can get through Sunday night, we'll be in good shape for it to continue for a long time with a warm pattern settling in. 

Looks like 80 degrees for Halloween. Crazy. 

[cardinalland]

tropical moisture may be our best bet in this region right now. it's the only way any model shows us getting rain

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

tropical moisture may be our best bet in this region right now. it's the only way any model shows us getting rain

Agree.  Need a storm (even if it's a disorganized mess) to ride the coast

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree.  Need a storm (even if it's a disorganized mess) to ride the coast

Which would not fit November climo at all. The westerlies are normally way too far south at that point

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Which would not fit November climo at all

No, but check out the tropical forum a few have noted the GFS has done well with TS formation this year and it's insistent on a storm forming later next week

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No, but check out the tropical forum a few have noted the GFS has done well with TS formation this year and it's insistent on a storm forming later next week

Ida 2009 but a tick north would be nice.  

[Allsnow]

 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Departures through 10/23

EWR: +3.2
JFK: +2.9
NYC: +2.2
ISP: +1.8
LGA: + 1.5

And ewr just hit 70 so another well above average day pending tonight's low temperature a +10 still possible

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah it was about 50-60 degrees most days-once the higher sun angle hit in mid Feb it felt like spring. 

A 01-02 repeat in this warmer climate would make the last few winters seem colder by comparison. The 01-02 winter went +7.1 in NYC against the much colder normals of that time. It averaged 41.5° and the same departure these days would yield a 43.3° average. Would be +1.8° warmer than 01-02 and +2.3° warmer than 22-23. 
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2023-2024	40.6	0
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	0
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0

[WX-PA]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A 01-02 repeat in this warmer climate would make the last few winters seem colder by comparison. The 01-02 winter went +7.1 in NYC against the much colder normals of that time. It averaged 41.5° and the same departure these days would yield a 43.3° average. It would be +1.8° warmer than 01-02 and +2.3° warmer than 22-23. 
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2023-2024	40.6	0
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	0
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0

is 01-02 a analog?..There was one snow event in January..besides that there was no winter.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

is 01-02 a analog?..There was one snow event in January..besides that there was no winter.

01-02 only works as an analog if December comes out of the gate really warm and doesn’t trail off or reverse after. We got a very warm December in that range in 21 but the reversal in January took a +7 winter out of play. Then 22-23 started slightly cooler than avg in December before January and February averaged +7.5. Last winter started very warm again but the departures lagged in January and February. So it has been a challenge for NYC to get much beyond +5 in recent winters since it’s hard to sustain such high departures over a 3 month period. The bigger story has been the sustained above to near to record warmth since 15-16. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

I think we see the anomalous dry conditions continue right through the end of November and it ends up another record dry month. I don’t believe the GFS fantasy of a tropical cyclone coming up the coast for one second. Besides not fitting November climo, the models show the normal seasonal progression of the westerlies well south by the beginning of the month. A dry feedback loop is firmly in place now

[forkyfork]

another gulf system with a bad pattern for bringing it up the coast

[WX-PA]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think we see the anomalous dry conditions continue right through the end of November and it ends up another record dry month. I don’t believe the GFS fantasy of a tropical cyclone coming up the coast for one second. Besides not fitting November climo, the models show the normal seasonal progression of the westerlies well south by the beginning of the month. A dry feedback loop is firmly in place now

It will definitely rain in November. We don't live in a desert.

[Big Jims Videos]

November is on average one of the drier months. We'll see what happens. 

[Brian5671]

"only" got to 68 here today-actually felt like fall.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

another gulf system with a bad pattern for bringing it up the coast

The drought continues....zzzzz

[donsutherland1]

The cooling trend that got underway today will continue tomorrow. Temperatures will top out in the lower 60s. After a somewhat warmer Saturday, a shortlived but fairly sharp cool shot is likely Sunday into Monday before it warms up quickly early next week.

Out West, yet another round of near-record and record heat is affecting Phoenix and Tucson. The heat will persist through Sunday. Tucson could see its latest 100° temperature on record.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 24 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has also been a trace. That ties the old record of a trace from 1886. Further, today is Philadelphia's 26th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 3rd longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days set during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged or broken.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +16.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.658 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.0° (2.1° above normal).

 

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

Ida 2009 but a tick north would be nice.  

That literally killed people. A lot of people and caused a lot of damage.

 

Even though many people on here are screaming like the sky is falling we are hardly in a major drought situation.

We certainly don’t need any tropical storm like Ida ever again. That was a fucking disaster be a tick in any direction.

 

We are like 2 inches low in annual rainfall.

 

 

[snowman19]

If the overnight ensemble runs are correct about the upper level pattern at the beginning of November, whatever tropical development happens will have no way of making it up the coast. Strong westerlies all the way into the Deep South. Any TC development would get shunted right OTS. Not much of a surprise though as that is typical of November

[bluewave]

The unusual thing about the airmass next week will be how warm the minimums will be to our west. Models have been hinting at lows near 70° in Iowa. This could be a first for so late in the season as the departures are forecast to be off the charts. 
 

[Brian5671]

Going to be a mega torch once that moves east.   80 for Halloween anyone?

[bluewave]

Those 850 mb temps should be near +20C early Tuesday for the 70° lows around Iowa. But they should modify quite a bit coming east. Looks similar to the other day when the warm spots went 80-85 in NJ. That should be good for more record high potential at around Halloween as the surface forecast highs have been beating forecasts with the record dry pattern. 
 

 

[495weatherguy]

38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Going to be a mega torch once that moves east.   80 for Halloween anyone?

Let’s hope!

[SACRUS]

 

49 / 36 of a low of 38. sunny, cooler the next 72 hours.   Upper mid 60s / near 70 Fri and Sat then coolest Sun / Mon with forst inland 0 50s day / 30s night.   Warmer Tue - Sat peaking Thu / Fri with more near / low 80s.  Overall warmer to open next month and dry continuing.  In the longer range deep front continues to be forecast around Nov 6, perhaps the chance for rain.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Semblance of the trough into the mid west by early nov pushing east towards the 5/6 otherwise Sunny and dry pushes into week 6.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 79 (2001)
NYC: 79 (1963)
LGA: 78 (2001)
JFK: 77 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1939)
NYC: 29 (1879)
LGA: 37 (1962)
JFK: 33 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1918: The Canadian steamship Princess Sophia carrying miners from the Yukon and Alaska becomes stranded on Vanderbilt Reef. A strong northerly gale hampers rescue attempts the day before. The ship sinks on this day, killing the 268 passengers and 75 crewmen on board. 

1921 - A hurricane with 100 mph winds hit Tampa, FL, causing several million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1921: A devastating category 3 hurricane struck near Tarpon Springs, Florida. The storm caused 8 fatalities and is the latest in the calendar year a category 3 hurricane or stronger made landfall in the US.

1975: GOES-1, which was launched on October 16th.

1977 - Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - A northbound tornado caused two million dollars damage to Bountstown, FL, in less than five minutes. Fortunately no deaths occurred along its six mile path, which was 30 to 100 yards in width. Radar at Apalachicola had no indication of a tornado or severe weather. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm system moving across the Saint Lawrence Valley produced 40 to 50 mph winds east of Lake Ontario. High winds downed some trees around Watertown NY, and produced waves seven feet high between Henderson Harbor and Alexandria Bay. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA tied for honors as cold spot in the nation with record lows for the date of 19 degrees. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma and northern Texas produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms erupted over northeastern Texas during the late evening producing softball size hail at Newcastle and Jonesboro. Low pressure over James Bay in Canada continued to produced showers and gale force winds in the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure over Nevada produced high winds in the southwestern U.S., and spread heavy snow into Utah. Winds gusted to 63 mph at the Mojave Airport in southern California. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 12 inches at Snowbird, with 11 inches at Alta. "Indian Summer" type weather continued in the central and eastern U.S. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 77 degrees at Alpena MI and 81 degrees at Saint Cloud MN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2017: The high temperatures in Denver, Colorado was 84 degrees. By the morning hours on the 27th, the temperature fell to 13 degrees, a 71-degree change.