SACRUS Posted October 6, 2024 Share Posted October 6, 2024 75 off low of 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 6, 2024 Share Posted October 6, 2024 Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with perhaps some morning showers or even a thundershower as a strong cold front crosses the region. Following the frontal passage, the region will see its coolest air so far this season. New York City could see its first temperature below 50° since May 13th after midweek. During the middle of the week, Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Florida's west coast. The storm will likely make landfall as a Category 3 and perhaps Category 4 hurricane. It will bring a devastating storm surge inland. There remains a risk that Tampa could face some of the hurricane's worst impacts even as the guidance has shifted somewhat southward. The later guidance will lead to a more precise picture. In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. Phoenix reached 113°, which smashed the daily record by 8° and tied the monthly record set on October 1st. Since September 25th, Phoenix has had 6 days with highs of 113° or above. In its full-year climate record that goes back to 1896, 98 years (76% of the record) had fewer than 6 such days. The most recent such year was 2014 (3 days). The region has never seen a late-season heatwave like the current one. The extreme heat will fade toward midweek. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +10.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.970 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Highs: PHL: 77 TTN: 75 TEB: 75 New Brnswck: 75 ACY: 75 LGA: 72 EWR: 72 ISP: 71 NYC: 71 JFK: 70 BLM: 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Dry week upcoming. Pleasant but dry and boring. Just glad this dry period did not hit in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 4 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: should get some rain tonight Radar looks good. We'll see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Yeah back to the dry pattern...1.65" here since 8/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 No rain tonight for majority of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Storm blew up over the bronx and mt vernon, least someone got something this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Not a drop on the uws. The only good news is, it’s getting to the end of the growing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 a couple downpours here with thunder....much needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Hearing some thunder now to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Looks like rain over southwest Ct. and Long Island Sound, once again nothing here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Radar looks good. We'll see Not a drop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Not just our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 17 hours ago, the_other_guy said: What drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Looks like another warm day with a few fall like days midweek. No rain for us through day 14 although eastern areas may do better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Getting heavy drizzle here, best rain in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Good to finally see some brief heavier downpours here but the heaviest totals were just north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Milton very close to cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Milton very close to cat 5 Hopefully shear cuts those winds by landfall, but the surge may not be affected by any weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 14 minutes ago, lee59 said: Hopefully shear cuts those winds by landfall, but the surge may not be affected by any weakening. Yeah, that up and in track towards Tamp Bay isn’t going to be great, if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 My drizzle turned into an actual rain, .13 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Just a trace here from a few sprinkles. Dry pattern persists. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 42 minutes ago, lee59 said: Hopefully shear cuts those winds by landfall, but the surge may not be affected by any weakening. Wont matter much for surge but even a 100MPH windfield into Tampa is going to be terrible. Some good discussion over on the tropical forum here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Good steady light rain for the past couple of hours. Desperately needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks like another warm day with a few fall like days midweek. No rain for us through day 14 although eastern areas may do better This week definitely isn't looking as cool as it did a few days ago as far as high temps. Now Thursday looks like the only really cool day with below average high temps in the mid 60s. Every other day our area will be up around 70, and then we go back to temps well up into the 70s on Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 Very dry pattern continuing for the CONUS away from the track of Milton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: This week definitely isn't looking as cool as it did a few days ago as far as high temps. Now Thursday looks like the only really cool day with below average high temps in the mid 60s. Every other day our area will be up around 70, and then we go back to temps well up into the 70s on Saturday. Probably due to the mostly sunny conditions and dry weather. Should see highs overperform and nights to be cooler than forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very dry pattern continuing for the CONUS away from the track of Milton. Hopefully we are getting this dry pattern out of the way now and pattern can shift to something more active for the cold months. Pattern will flip at some point but to what and for whom is the question. In the meantime that is a dry looking map, especially for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2024 Share Posted October 7, 2024 5 minutes ago, MANDA said: Hopefully we are getting this dry pattern out of the way now and pattern can shift to something more active for the cold months. Pattern will flip at some point but to what and for whom is the question. In the meantime that is a dry looking map, especially for this time of year. Tough to get much rainfall away from the tropical systems with so much record ridging and warmth over North America since late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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