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Hurricane Francine


salbers
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That evening convective burst might just send Francine over the edge into hurricane status.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 102330
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


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Officially a hurricane now.  Pressure starting to tumble now

000
WTNT31 KNHC 102330
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED 
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

 

 

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Finally able to look at stuff. We’re starting to see more substantial pressure falls and perhaps structural improvements as drier air mixes out, but evidence suggests that the vortex is a bit tilted in response to shear. As @40/70 Benchmark wrote earlier, tonight is the time when we likely see a peak when most favorable conditions align.

It’s delicate though—dry air entrainment could slow or halt any significant intensification tonight. I don’t think the vortex tilting matters as much yet. The organization of the inner core has an impact on tomorrow’s landfall intensity imo. 
 

 

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Also, in LA. Will post updates as I can. 
 

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Gonzales, LA, just southeast of Baton Rouge. It was a long travel day—much longer than I thought at just under 2,000 miles, as I decided to adjust my staging point well east of Lafayette before my flight early this morning. 

VfAxpdh.jpeg

Here the vibe is quite relaxed, much more than usual. Perhaps it’s the fact that Louisiana has been a magnet for some of the strongest hurricanes in recent memory. In fact, on my way to Gonzalez I passed through Iowa, LA, where I spent hours in the northeast eyewall of the extraordinary beast that was Laura.

Francine is now a hurricane, and at the risk of sounding like Josh :lol:  I’m not terribly enthused. Francine is intensifying, but it is fighting dry air and now shear as it makes the turn NE and heads toward the coast. Tonight is when more significant intensification could occur so I’m watching closely. Dry air and shear could easily blunt that. 

It’s warm and humid here with some light rain and occasionally gusty winds. I should be able to rest tonight as the action is subject to take place tomorrow.

I’m closely watching the track. I think I’m in a good spot, and I chose this location in large part for its highway access to quickly get west or east if necessary. Baton Rouge is 30 minutes west. New Orleans is an hour east. By contrast, Morgan City is 90 minutes south. Obviously it’s closer to the coast so best of luck to the chasers there. 

I’d rather not have to report from Mississippi tomorrow, but we’ll see. :axe: 

As is usually the case, I’ll post when I can. @MillvilleWx is in contact with me and will let y’all know I’m ok if I lose power/cell service. 

11m7FFZ.jpeg

 

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So far, the organization phase has continued without much disruption. As many here noted, now that Francine is accelerating away from the western Gulf coastline and no longer competing with the MCV like convection as it was earlier, it is in a more moist environment and taking advantage of very high OHC.

giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe9148vdx2nzjq8qzf839g
 

Here you can see persistent deep convection—the kind that led to the early development of an eye yesterday—rotating into the center. Aloft, winds are responding with continued pressure falls and clear organization of a new inner core.

zMDY5CL.png

Recon is now finding FL winds peaking between 85-89kts and a dropsonde confirmed pressure of 980mb. 

Critically, the latest VDM had this remark:

EYEWALL HAS 75 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN ON PREVIOUS PASS

The next few hours will be interesting. The earlier hurricane models got very aggressive while other guidance was more modest, due to the impact of dry air entrainment and shear. For now at least. The runway looks the clearest it has been for some level of takeoff, but time is limited. A more hostile environment before landfall awaits.

giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91zvm2ije1lsdr7guun6

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The eye is evident on KHGX radar, but it’s hard to assess the actual structure at this distance. A new recon flight has just taken off so we’ll see what they find. Hurricane models continue to be very aggressive on on balance in the hours right before landfall with a strong inner core about 10mb deeper than the current pressure. 

06L_ir.gif
 

Very deep convection continues at/near the center, and you can see how the jet interaction is helping this ventilate efficiently. 

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7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Definitely a large area of strong winds in the SE quadrant based on buoy observations. We often see this in storms with trough interaction. Going to be a good blow for SE LA. One thing I would be on the lookout for is surge east of the center with said winds and captured fetch.  

Yeah east side is looking pretty solid with the latest data. Let’s see what happens with future fixes. The eye looks well defined on radar. 

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19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Wind…who cares…?

 

All about surge. Yea…even in a cat 1 in this part of the world…Modest 3 ft with proper fetch transforms the look of SE LA. Let’s watch….

 

https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/3/-10114013.53249664/3562572.3384631854/6/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion

Agree, but I just mean for purposes of verification. 

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