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The first half of the week will likely see above to occasionally much above normal readings. It is likely that Baltimore and Washington, DC could experience a heatwave. The temperature could even approach or reach 90° on Wednesday in New York City.

A fresh shot of Canadian air will arrive late in the week to close out the month. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle and upper 70s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +22.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.220 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

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