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July 2024 Observations and Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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18 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Big West Coast/Rockies ridge showing up on both Ensembles for later next week.

What would be the impact on the sensible weather in NE as a result?

The structure of the ridge across the Southeast will be a factor as well, however, if we end up on the northern periphery of that ridge (southern) we'll be in an active jet pattern so we would have several opportunities for convection due to numerous shortwaves which would likely be embedded within the flow. 

 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The structure of the ridge across the Southeast will be a factor as well, however, if we end up on the northern periphery of that ridge (southern) we'll be in an active jet pattern so we would have several opportunities for convection due to numerous shortwaves which would likely be embedded within the flow. 

 

Yeah I'd lean dewy with precip chances.

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It's been the leitmotif going back a few summers.  Early heat or early heat threats then decaying into a semi-permanent trough or weakness along 90W ...  We end up blocked off from continental heat while stuck in a soup pump.  Haven't even been many Bahama Blue patterns for it, either.  Just shit sultry DP miasma packing east of Apallachia.   Strong argument for central air with techy moisture controls because I've been seeing more and more of these mid summer black mold blooms like on outside fixtures, and have found it in the corners of my bathroom - insidious nasty filth.  

... I'm seeing signs that's trying to set up yet again

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's been the leitmotif going back a few summers.  Early heat or early heat threats then decaying into a semi-permanent trough or weakness along 90W ...  We end up blocked off from continental heat while stuck in a soup pump.  Haven't even been many Bahama Blue patterns for it, either.  Just shit sultry DP miasma packing east of Apallachia.   Strong argument for central air with techy moisture controls because I've been seeing more and more of these mid summer black mold blooms like on outside fixtures, and have found it in the corners of my bathroom - insidious nasty filth.  

... I'm seeing signs that's trying to set up yet again

Black mold is a super nasty substance that isn't treated as seriously as it should be. We've also been seeing a certain type of fungus on certain plants, trees etc. We saw this last summer on the Japanese maples and Mimosa trees. 

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7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Black mold is a super nasty substance that isn't treated as seriously as it should be. We've also been seeing a certain type of fungus on certain plants, trees etc. We saw this last summer on the Japanese maples and Mimosa trees. 

whatever it is ...it's growing on decking surfaces around the shaded elementation.  It may not be black mold exactly, but the stuff in my bathroom worries me.  I keep looking for it and have a hot bleach water mixture on stand by - it seems to kill it almost immediately. 

I have an exit fan in the bathroom but it's old and needs to be replaced.  I want to have a match blow out at the base of the door when the fan is on to make sure it's actually trading air and moving outside - not sure what's in there is easy to the task.   I'm scheduled to have mini split conversion for heat/cooling on the 22nd of July.  Psyched for that. .. But my buddy had those put in and says they do have moisture settings so  dehumidifying option - it's my first venture into this tech so we'll see.  Need to replace the exit fan either way - with that and the mini splits should be better for moisture controls.

CC's a bitch.

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And as you might imagine, with anomolously high PWATs, dew points are elevated and * will be the type of humidity you can feel.* Both Thursday and Friday air temperatures in the middle and upper 80s with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows are in the middle to upper 60s, with low 70s possible in urban centers.

 

:thumbsup:

 

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Theres going to be a long long stretch of dewy starting tomorrow pm and beyond . ULL over Midwest means Deep South flow in East . Love the look 

Here's tomorrow PM "dewy" dps for the general audience

 

image.thumb.png.ec71ea57c7e0750689ba0d162dcffe1d.png

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cane Beryl is also going to play a role in our wx next week as it turns north into LA and then up the OV to east coast. That’ll true some 80 degree dews and rains and squalls our way. Many of the ensembles show the eventual path 

I don't think Beryl will have any factor on our weather at all. Even in the more extreme scenario of greater impact to Texas, I don't foresee much influence to us. I know sometimes remnants can get drawn into frontal systems but I don't see that here. Maybe a few raindrops can be traced back to the demising stage of Beryl. 

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cane Beryl is also going to play a role in our wx next week as it turns north into LA and then up the OV to east coast. That’ll true some 80 degree dews and rains and squalls our way. Many of the ensembles show the eventual path 

Yeah ..I'm willing to bet the DPs are in general not being handled quite right given that deep layer synoptic look there. Should be a little higher than the upper 60s.  Euro really struggles to keep 70+ through the area in quasi Bahama circulation mode and the GFS seems to hold them down a little too.   we'll see

But that could all be the case without Beryl

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ..I'm will to bet the DPs are in general not being handled quite right given that deep layer synoptic look there. Should be a little higher than the upper 60s.  Euro really struggles to keep 70+ through the area in quasi Bahama circulation mode and the GFS seems to hold them down a little to.   we'll see

But that could all be the case without Beryl

Obviously there is always the question as to whether the GFS (or euro) are overmixing, however, looking at the synoptic look, I don't think overmixing is a culprit here. Going verbatim, the synoptic look doesn't favor a deep southerly or southwesterly flow at the surface. We're kind of westerly through the troposphere. The Southeast ridge there extends well across the deep South into Texas, and may even connect with the west ridge. In this scenario, we're cut off from the true deep tropical flow. 

I would suspect the best chance of 70+ dews in this regime would be dewpoint pooling ahead of any front as we shift winds out ahead of it. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Obviously there is always the question as to whether the GFS (or euro) are overmixing, however, looking at the synoptic look, I don't think overmixing is a culprit here. Going verbatim, the synoptic look doesn't favor a deep southerly or southwesterly flow at the surface. We're kind of westerly through the troposphere. The Southeast ridge there extends well across the deep South into Texas, and may even connect with the west ridge. In this scenario, we're cut off from the true deep tropical flow. 

I would suspect the best chance of 70+ dews in this regime would be dewpoint pooling ahead of any front as we shift winds out ahead of it. 

Yeah I'm not sure I'm biting on their surface layout just yet with that 500 mb look.  That looks like front(s) stalling west of ALB and establishing the gradient ( weak ) SSW-NNE along the I-95 corridor Mon-Thur.

Plus theta-e pooling

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cane Beryl is also going to play a role in our wx next week as it turns north into LA and then up the OV to east coast. That’ll true some 80 degree dews and rains and squalls our way. Many of the ensembles show the eventual path 

maybe?

 

AL02_2024070218_GEFS.png

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