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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

the rainfall totals in southern Florida are absolutely insane. High risk for FF today too. Scary wording 

I have a friend that lives near KFLL and they say the flooding is insane. Even with the breaks there is nowhere for the water to go. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Might mix out dews at times next week. 

I hear ya and it’s more likely with the over the top NW flow, but I’ll believe the intensity of that heat plume with that amount of mixing if we can get it to d3 with few changes. But we’re arguing semantics. It’s going to be hot either way barring modeling failure. 

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z gfs is back in the big heat sweepstakes . 6 day major heat wave peaking next Wednesday through Friday. 

I'm late on everything ( had to actually go into the office today which sucks up all my model time for traffic - ) ...    but from what I saw over lunch re the last 18 hours-worth of guidance, this was still trending straight through to what I've seen so far of this 12z run cycle.

The 00z EPS was just damn mean looking.   The Euro operational likely has company among it's various members.   The mean is over 597 ... 

I did get a statement in earlier re the 00z Euro's 850 mb layer being more evidenced of an actual SW Heat Release injecting into the ridge - that's the red flag for taking a seasonal heat wave and sending it... how far?   There's still time to back off, but I suspect the baseline is just that... at minimum a seasonal heat wave ( 91 ... 93 )/70   ...

I suspect the DPs are not handled entirely right, particularly in the Euro - unless there's been some improvement, the model tends to over mix.   What's also interesting about the overmix aspect is that it doesn't really calculate a 2-meter temperature - if one looks at the sounding as it terminates into the boundary layer, it clearly stops the extrapolations at 1000mb ( or equiv sigma ) level.   So one has to juggle a bit... Assume 3 F than 102 at Beford Ma become 105, which is a better match for 850 mb/23.5C, but then inject more DP... and we get 98/72 or so...

Which is dangerous if things ceiling that high in this thing.

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57 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

the rainfall totals in southern Florida are absolutely insane. High risk for FF today too. Scary wording 

Tornado in my old town of Stuart (Hobe Sound) yesterday 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I hear ya and it’s more likely with the over the top NW flow, but I’ll believe the intensity of that heat plume with that amount of mixing if we can get it to d3 with few changes. But we’re arguing semantics. It’s going to be hot either way barring modeling failure. 

Yeah I'm not buying like 101 in BOS yet...but maybe U90s if we mix out.

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Just now, ma blizzard said:

Higher end potential verbatim .. keeps low lvl flow more out of the west 

Definitely. The panels for next Friday are just absurd lol. Good luck with three consecutive June days here over 100. 

uzalyw2.png

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40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Definitely. The panels for next Friday are just absurd lol. Good luck with three consecutive June days here over 100. 

uzalyw2.png

Thursday looks particularly brutal. Gets to 91 by noon. By the end of the day heat index tops 110. Hopefully it won't come about. I put down the saws whenever the heat index gets over a hundred. No need for a stroke...

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