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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS is a scorcher again starting Tuesday til end of run .. seems to always start at day 7 though … 

Pretty sure he was kidding but to your point ... this Thursday/Friday mid 80s was originally modeled to be the entry days whence about 7 days ago in the early detection.   As we've gotten closer, the old can kick. 

That said, I do think that around Juneteenth ( which happens to be my birthday LOL ) that appears to be a R. wave anchor.   Whether the dailies plume the ridge to it's fullest extent remains to be seen, but once it sets in, the GEFs ensemble was multiple days of this look ..through perhaps 300 hours

image.png.dbf0c3ab9dad0e8245ba7578330b7d19.png

 

It all smacks as a red flag for potential, the ceiling of which may or may not be reached. These individual operational runs have been fiddling with reasons to lower that but there's no continuity and can't be trusted.

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GGEM has also come back with a bigger signal - in fact, the biggest so far since detection of this began a week ago.

Both GEFS and GGEM are also open ended ... They're not indicating a pattern change so much as a deterioration of coherency, while maintaining essence of -PNAP paradigm.

If nothing else, it's a pretty impressive extended rang signal - relative to that...

 

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Wow... so yeah...after a relaxation or suggestion of something more seasonal from the 00z, the 12z's are so far all upping the essence again.  We seem to be oscillating between above and much above+ with this solstice heat.  

Check out this sick looking 12z Euro operational - first operational run that begins to explore the upper potential in this modeling saga so far...

image.thumb.png.d481492db718b3010674d54446732e1b.png

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty sure he was kidding but to your point ... this Thursday/Friday mid 80s was originally modeled to be the entry days whence about 7 days ago in the early detection.   As we've gotten closer, the old can kick. 

That said, I do think that around Juneteenth ( which happens to be my birthday LOL ) that appears to be a R. wave anchor.   Whether the dailies plume the ridge to it's fullest extent remains to be seen, but once it sets in, the GEFs ensemble was multiple days of this look ..through perhaps 300 hours

image.png.dbf0c3ab9dad0e8245ba7578330b7d19.png

 

It all smacks as a red flag for potential, the ceiling of which may or may not be reached. These individual operational runs have been fiddling with reasons to lower that but there's no continuity and can't be trusted.

Happy birthday! And yes I was kidding.

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

School ends tomorrow and I realized there weren’t any heat days announced by the district. Usually there is stretch where they either let out kids early or provide notice to stay hydrated and dress comfortably. That hasn’t happened. It’s been a great warm-low dew spring for sure. 

It has been great for school here.  A couple of warm days and 1 muggy day.  A couple more upcoming, but no big deal

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Suck day today. Thankfully the last one until October.

What's wrong with today? Pretty much perfect for outdoor activities. Hiking, biking, golf, running you name it. I suppose if you want to sit on your fat ass inside and watch TV it's suboptimal.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a great stretch for those that enjoy outdoor activities. Eventually that ends and any yardwork can only be done very early in the mornings while afternoon soccer practices need two ply on standby…exciting.

Looks like plenty of good weather for the unactive next week. Plenty of time to binge watch Netflix while slugging IPAs by the AC.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a great stretch for those that enjoy outdoor activities. Eventually that ends and any yardwork can only be done very early in the mornings while afternoon soccer practices need two ply on standby…exciting.

The weekend's going to be absolutely perfect for the active. 

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Just now, kdxken said:

Looks like plenty of good weather for the unactive next week. Plenty of time to binge watch Netflix while slugging IPAs by the AC.

The only activity one can do in 90/75 stuff is pool/beach. Everything else is awful unless folks enjoy burly men sweating profusely while grilling burgers on the deck…

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The only activity one can do in 90/75 stuff is pool/beach. Everything else is awful unless folks enjoy burly men sweating profusely while grilling burgers on the deck…

Nail on the head.

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7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nail on the head.

Man #1: It’s really steamy out. Are the burgers ready?

Griller: yea this is great. I just flipped them. Hey, can you place a cool towel on my backside real quick, I got some sweat trickling down…

Man #1: this is the best summer ever!

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cloudy, chilly...it's great if you live in Labrador. It's over now.

BOS is averaging above normal past 4 days.

Feel like that’s still important to note.  Today might end up -1 though.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BOS is averaging above normal past 4 days.

Feel like that’s still important to note.  Today might end up -1 though.

On the beaches perhaps. But just inland highs were BN today. Yesterday was ok.

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I tend to do my long walks sunset or later.  So even way above normal is just fine.  Although I’m about to go out now given the clouds and cool.  I love the sun but sadly this time of the year it’s my enemy.

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cloudy, chilly...it's great if you live in Labrador. It's over now.

As my mother would say put on a jacket if you're cold. Better yet move around a little you'll warm up.

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

On the beaches perhaps. But just inland highs were BN today. Yesterday was ok.

Yeah I guess ORH at 70F instead of 72F average.

I was just trying to clarify if when folks say it’s chilly, is it based on normal or is it just anything not full HHH summer now considered chilly.

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

What's wrong with today? Pretty much perfect for outdoor activities. Hiking, biking, golf, running you name it. I suppose if you want to sit on your fat ass inside and watch TV it's suboptimal.

Average max today here is 70, about what we had.  Too bad I waited until 3:30-4 PM for some outside work, when the skeeters come out to dine, instead of doing it 4 hours earlier when low humidity would keep the mosquitos down.  Hordes of them in the late afternoon.

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12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Average max today here is 70, about what we had.  Too bad I waited until 3:30-4 PM for some outside work, when the skeeters come out to dine, instead of doing it 4 hours earlier when low humidity would keep the mosquitos down.  Hordes of them in the late afternoon.

No mosquitoes or deer flies here yet thankfully. The heat next week will bring 'em

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