vpbob21 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 20/9/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 23/11/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Amending my forecast to 20/7/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 15/9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 22/12/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 26/13/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 27/14/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 28/16/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 26/15/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 21/10/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 19/9/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 A good turnout but as no action predicted in near future, I will extend deadline to 06z June 5, or late June 4 on your calendar. Edit up to deadline if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 23/13/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Hi Roger! Hope you’re doing well. 25/12/6 https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1797020748181086679 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 24/14/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Final amendment 21/11/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 24/11/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 22/15/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 Final Guess if counts: 26:13:6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 According to wikipedia, following are pre-season expert forecasts ... TSR Dec 11, 2023 20 9 4 CSU April 4, 2024 23 11 5 MFM April 5, 2024 21 11 N/A TSR April 8, 2024 23 11 5 UA April 8, 2024 21 11 5 MU April 12, 2024 26 11 5 NCSU April 16, 2024 15–20 10–12 3–4 UPenn April 24, 2024 33 N/A N/A SMN May 6, 2024 20–23 9–11 4–5 UKMO* May 22, 2024 22 12 4 NOAA May 23, 2024 17–25 8–13 4–7 [ TSR May 30, 2024 24 12 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 Difficult to edit above post, basically, NOAA will go into contest at 21 10.5 5.5 and expert consensus will be 23 11 5. I will note UK 22 12 4 also. Working on table of forecasts, will be available on June 6. Contest is now closed to entries but I would accept any posted before table appears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 __ Table of forecasts __ 2024 N Atlantic tropical season contest __ Scoring rules at base of table, order of entry breaks any tied scoring ranks. NOAA, expert consensus, UK and contest consensus will be ranked independently (won't affect your contest ranks) ... a few entries were posted on Net-weather (UK) and boards.ie weather forum (Ireland). ... ranks will be (a) overall and also (b) for each forum. Order of entry is for American Wx Forum entries, separate coded order of entry is given for guests. (e.g. NW-1 indicates first of five Net-weather entries). In event of U.S. and guest forecasts being tied, I will determine from forum posted dates relative order of entry. Contest consensus is a median (not a mean) of (not-specific-expert-group) entries. FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________storms __ hurr __ major TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 39 _____ 26 ______ 7 karmac (7) __________________________________ 33 _____ 14 ______ 7 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________32 _____ 17 ______ 8 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 32 _____ 12 ______ 4 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 29 _____ 15 ______ 5 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 29 _____ 13 ______ 7 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________28 _____ 16 ______ 7 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 28 _____ 13 ______ 6 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 27 _____ 17 ______ 6 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________27 _____ 17 ______ 5 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________27 _____ 14 ______ 8 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 26 _____ 15 ______ 7 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________26 _____ 13 ______ 6 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 26 _____ 13 ______ 6 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 25 _____ 17 _____ 10 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 25 _____ 16 ______ 3 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________25 _____ 14 ______ 8 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 7 ncforecaster89 (38) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 6 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 5 JonClaw (23) ________________________________25 _____ 12 ______ 5 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 4 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 25 ______ 8 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________24 _____ 14 ______ 6 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________24 _____ 14 ______ 4 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________24 _____ 13 ______ 5 Stebo (17) ___________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 24 _____ 11 ______ 6 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________24 _____ 11 ______ 5 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________24 _____ 11 ______ 4 ___ Contest consensus (Median) __________24 _____ 12 _____ 5 StormchaserChuck1 (4) _____________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 GeorgeBM (37) ______________________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 FPizz (18) ___________________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 4 ___ Expert consensus _______________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 5 Hotair (28) __________________________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 4 Southmdwatcher (42) _______________________22 _____ 15 ______ 8 Snowlover2 (15) _____________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 6 cardinalland (26) ____________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 6 Yoda (30) ____________________________________22 _____ 12 ______ 5 ___ UKMO forecast __________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 4 Seminole (25) _______________________________ 22 _____ 11 ______ 3 Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 22 _____ 10 ______ 4 ldub23 (40) __________________________________21 _____ 11 ______ 5 ___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 21 _____ 10.5 ___ 5.5 Gawx (35) ___________________________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5 Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________21 ______ 8 ______ 4 Rhino16 (2) __________________________________20 _____ 12 ______ 5 Torch Tiger (13) _____________________________ 20 _____ 11 ______ 6 vpBob (27) __________________________________ 20 ______ 9 ______ 5 jlauderdal (36) ______________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 5 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________19 ______ 8 ______ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________18 _____ 11 ______ 5 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 4 wkd (29) _____________________________________15 ______ 9 ______ 4 tae laidir (IE-4) ______________________________ 15 ______ 9 ______ 4 Retrobuc (12) ________________________________ 13 ______ 8 ______ 2 Scoring for contest will follow same rules as previous years. Errors for named storms (S) are applied at 50% compared to errors in H and M For H and M error deductions (from 100 points) are an average of error and error squared. For example, a forecast of 11 H and outcome of 13 takes a penalty of 3 (average of 2 and 4). An error of six takes a penalty of 21 (average of 6 and 36) ... etc. Errors for number of storms will be calculated in similar way but will be divided by 2, so if you predicted 30 storms and 24 occur, error deduction is half of 21, or 10.5. Scores around 95 usually win this contest. Note: If you discover your forecast is a duplicate of an earlier submitted forecast and you want to alter your forecast to nearest available different forecast, post by June 10. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 I suspect it is a product of the heat sink element of the Carnot engine (a simple way to describe the operation of a hurricane or a steam turbine power plant) becoming warmer as well, but Instability/potential intensity is not rising in line with the record warm SSTs. Perhaps an indicator the seasonal numbers won't be as extreme as some suggest. OT- Twitter posts used to actually appear embedded in the AmEx post. Something changes. https://x.com/DrKimWood/status/1798745800031523106 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Somehow I missed entering, oh well. Just for giggles. 25/8/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 8 Author Share Posted June 8 I will add you in, would be ineligible for a contest win but will rank it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted yesterday at 01:23 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:23 AM A total of 52 forecasts plus "expert" forecasts and our consensus (24 12 5), and one late forecast as noted above. ... 43 (44 incl late) forecasts from this forum, and five from UK Net-weather, four from boards.ie (Ireland) weather forum. Good luck everyone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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