April 2024

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

sleet how? it was in the 40s....

It can sleet in the 40s. I was in Staten Island. Could have been graupel.

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It can sleet in the 40s. I was in Staten Island. Could have been graupel.

I guess we can put down a T for April then

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Ramapo Fault is an old one. I'm sure some research has been done.

I heard it's 200 million years old, it's been around since the heyday of the dinosaurs, Don!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Revisions are often based on the examination of a wider set of data.

ah so it's not as simple as reading the temperature off a thermometer?

I figured seismographs worked in the same way.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

All it took was a dry July and August in 2022 for 4-6 days reaching 100° away from the sea breeze influence in NJ. NJ probably could have made it 10 days if they were able to get a real drought like back in 2002.
 

Data for July 1, 2022 through August 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	5
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4

I think it's absolutely criminal that these places get to experience 100 degrees while we have not hit 100 since 2013-- the real drought is the lack of 100 degrees in the city and on Long Island.

 

[rclab]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I heard it's 200 million years old, it's been around since the heyday of the dinosaurs, Don!

Quick Wiki screenshot agrees, Liberty. Stay steady, as always ….

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will again feature readings in the 50s. Afterward, it will likely turn noticeably warmer.

Monday should see partly to mostly sunny skies, allowing for good viewing of the solar eclipse in the New York City area. The temperature should top out in the lower 60s. The highest probability of minimal cloud cover in the path of totality in the Northeast will likely be across northern New England, particularly Maine.

The warmest day of the week will likely be Tuesday when temperatures rise into perhaps the lower 70s in New York City and upper 70s to perhaps near 80° in Washington, DC. A moderate to significant rainfall is possible late in the week with much of the region picking up a general 1.00"-2.00" of rain.

New York City's Central Park remains on track to finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.27°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -18.32 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.182 today.

 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it's absolutely criminal that these places get to experience 100 degrees while we have not hit 100 since 2013-- the real drought is the lack of 100 degrees in the city and on Long Island.

 

If you like 100° days that much you have to move north or west of the sea breeze front. The stronger high east of New England has keep the South Shore cooler since the 15-16 super El Niño. 
 

Data for January 1, 2015 through April 6, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	10
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	8
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	6
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	3
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	2
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	2
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	1

 

Data for January 1, 2015 through April 6, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100
NJ	FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	6
NJ	SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
PA	PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	5
NJ	LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	4
NJ	HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	4

[Allsnow]

Another 1-3 of rain next week…sigh 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Another 1-3 of rain next week…sigh 

Bring it on

[Snowlover11]

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Another 1-3 of rain next week…sigh 

followed by another quake? lets go!

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Again GFS and GEFS mapping out the way to a cool wet summer and if weather systems are situated anything like this we won't be seeing any hurricanes near the east coast. It's early so things could change but idea of an upper low over the northeast and northwest Atlantic is awfully persistent. I gotta hope these maps are as bogus as all the heat the model advertised last August.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

48 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

followed by another quake? lets go!

Looks like a basically cool/wet pattern into the first part of May with an isolated day here or there up around 70.

WX/PT

[gravitylover]

Damn.i don't want to get more heating oil but if it's not gonna warm up I'll have to. Uggh

[the_other_guy]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is why we want W to NW for peak heat here in the summer.

It makes us hotter than Manhattan.

How often does that happen though? JFK is in a south operation almost all summer

[Brian5671]

6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Again GFS and GEFS mapping out the way to a cool wet summer and if weather systems are situated anything like this we won't be seeing any hurricanes near the east coast. It's early so things could change but idea of an upper low over the northeast and northwest Atlantic is awfully persistent. I gotta hope these maps are as bogus as all the heat the model advertised last August.

WX/PT

Given all the warm water in the NW Atlantic I'd be very surprised at a cool/wet summer....

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will again feature readings in the 50s. Afterward, it will likely turn noticeably warmer.

Monday should see partly to mostly sunny skies, allowing for good viewing of the solar eclipse in the New York City area. The temperature should top out in the lower 60s. The highest probability of minimal cloud cover in the path of totality in the Northeast will likely be across northern New England, particularly Maine.

The warmest day of the week will likely be Tuesday when temperatures rise into perhaps the lower 70s in New York City and upper 70s to perhaps near 80° in Washington, DC. A moderate to significant rainfall is possible late in the week with much of the region picking up a general 1.00"-2.00" of rain.

New York City's Central Park remains on track to finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.27°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -18.32 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.182 today.

 

Looks like we will start another nice dry stretch after Friday, with a sunny weekend and dry and sunny for the start of the following week too

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

How often does that happen though? JFK is in a south operation almost all summer

2010 was amazing with a west to northwesterly flow for most of the summer.

dry and hot, low humidity and no flooding rains.

 

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

How often does that happen though? JFK is in a south operation almost all summer

I think the way it happens is that the south wind gets delayed until after 3 or 4 pm.

From what I've noticed, the temperatures rise here quickly (4 degrees per hour) until the sea breeze kicks in.  As long as the sea breeze is delayed until after 3 pm it can get very hot here.

2010 was like this

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Another 1-3 of rain next week…sigh 

Yeah, a few showers on Wednesday as the warm front comes north. Then the heavier rains with embedded convection from Thursday into Friday with more 50+ mph gusts. The low pulls away on Saturday with more strong NW winds gusting over 30 mph. 
 

 

[doncat]

11.23" rain here between 3/2 and 4/4. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a few showers on Wednesday as the warm front comes north. Then the heavier rains with embedded convection from Thursday into Friday with more 50+ mph gusts. The low pulls away on Saturday with more strong NW winds gusting over 30 mph. 
 

 

I choose to focus on the positive, a nice dry stretch sets in after Friday

 

[bluewave]

On 4/7/2024 at 8:06 AM, LibertyBell said:

I choose to focus on the positive, a nice dry stretch sets in after Friday

 

We had a very strong MJO 8 -NAO pattern flip around March 20th. These pattern changes usually last a minimum of 30 days. So we’ll have to see what the models come up with as we approach April 20th. If we still keep seeing these troughs reloading onto the East, then we’ll know the pattern change on March 20th will last even longer than a month. But if models become more optimistic next few weeks by  the 20th, then we’ll know it was only a 30 day event. 

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a few showers on Wednesday as the warm front comes north. Then the heavier rains with embedded convection from Thursday into Friday with more 50+ mph gusts. The low pulls away on Saturday with more strong NW winds gusting over 30 mph. 
 

 

Thursday night into Friday morning looks nasty, very heavy rain, high winds. What else is new? The beat goes on

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

2010 was amazing with a west to northwesterly flow for most of the summer.

dry and hot, low humidity and no flooding rains.

 

That won't happen again 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

2010 was amazing with a west to northwesterly flow for most of the summer.

dry and hot, low humidity and no flooding rains.

 

Hot is an understatement. Yes it was dry but boy was 2010 a torch summer

[SACRUS]

 

37 - 51 and some bright sunshine.  Shaping up to be the nicest day in more than a week with  Upper 50s near 60 today. Mid 60s Mon and low - mid 70s  Tue .  Wed 4/10 - Sat - (4/13) clouds, rain and winds another 1 - 3 inches of rain.  Then some moderation later Sat 13th - 15th before more storms.  Overall cooler/wetter through the 15th . Beyond the mid month perhaps warmer but still looking wetter.   80s again sightless for now.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2010)
NYC: 92 (2010)
LGA: 91 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 16 (1982)
NYC: 21 (1982)
LGA: 22 (1982)

 

Historical:

 

1857 - A late season freeze brought snow to every state in the Union. Even as far south as Houston TX the mercury plunged to 21 degrees. (David Ludlum)

 

1926: Lightning started a disastrous oil fire at San Luis Obispo, California, which lasted for five days, spread over 900 acres, and burned over six million barrels of oil. Flames reached 1000 feet, and the temperature of the fire was estimated at 2,500 degrees. The fire spawned thousands of whirlwinds with hundreds the size of small tornadoes. One vortex traveled one mile to the east-northeast of the blaze, destroying a small farmhouse and killing two people. Damage totaled $15 million.

1929 - Record heat prevailed across New England. Hartford CT reported an afternoon high of 90 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1935 - Amarillo, TX, reported dust obscuring visibility for twenty hours. Blowing dust was reported twenty-seven of thirty days in the month. On several days the visibility was reduced to near zero by the dust. (The Weather Channel)

 

1948: Six tornadoes ripped through Northern Illinois and Indiana; mainly across the southern and eastern suburbs of Chicago. The hardest hit was from a tornado that moved east from near Manteno, IL to near Hebron, Indiana. This storm left four people dead; three in Grant Park, IL and one near Hebron, IN with 67 injuries and over a million dollars damage. Other strong tornadoes in the area moved from near Coal City, IL to Braidwood, IL and from Calumet City, IL into Indiana. Further south, two strong tornadoes occurred across the northern parts of Champaign and Vermilion Counties in Illinois.

 

1980 - Severe thunderstorms spawned tornadoes which ripped through central Arkansas. The severe thunderstorms also produce high winds and baseball size hail. Five counties were declared disaster areas by President Carter. (The Weather Channel)

 

1987 - International Falls, MN, with record warm afternoon high of 71 degrees, was warmer than Miami FL, where the high was a record cool 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - High winds in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region gusted to 172 mph atop Grandfather Mountain NC. Twenty-nine cities in the southwest and north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Yankton SD with a reading of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-seven cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 92 degrees in Downtown San Francisco and 104 degrees at Phoenix AZ established records for April. Highs of 78 degrees at Ely NV and 93 degrees at San Jose CA equalled April records. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Low pressure brought strong winds to the Alaska peninsula and the Aleutian Islands. Winds gusted to 68 mph at Port Heiden two days in a row. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across central Alaska. Yakutat reported a record high of 54 degrees. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed over central sections of the Lower Forty-eight states. A dozen cities from Kansas to Indiana and Alabama reported record low temperatures for the date. Evansville IN equalled their record for April with a morning low of 23 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - A temperature of 80 degrees is measured on Grandfather Mountain, NC, the warmest ever measured in April and three degrees short of the all-time record high for any month.

2010: The record heat that affected the region on April 6-7 included 93 degrees at the Washington-Dulles Airport on April 6, the earliest 90-degree reading on record. On April 7, Newark, New Jersey, shattered its daily record by seven degrees when the maximum temperature rose to 92 degrees. The Northeast ended up with its second warmest April in 116 years.

[SACRUS]

 

Week ahead most of this for us in the northeast is Wed - Sat (AM)

 

[SACRUS]

 

Daylight:  12H:58M  equivalent to Sep 4th sun.