April 2024

[the_other_guy]

13 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

76 for a high, 82 in my house.  the ac is on.

Heat kicked on this morning…47F

[bluewave]

Too bad we could get such a strong -EPO pattern which is forecast to coincide with the cooler backdoor this week when we needed it during the winter.  All the best -EPOs since 13-14 and 14-15 have occurred during other seasons than the winter. Those were the last winters with wall to wall -EPO patterns. 

 

 

 

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Too bad we could get such a strong -EPO pattern which is forecast to coincide with the cooler backdoor this week when we needed it during the winter.  All the best -EPOs since 13-14 and 14-15 have occurred during other seasons than the winter. Those were the last winters with wall to wall -EPO patterns. 

 

 

 

 

Yup of course right when it’s not wanted which just sends in maritime puke from the east instead of the west. Right on cue for the last few years. Last year or the year before it was I think 2 weeks straight of some type of easterly winds. 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup of course right when it’s not wanted which just sends in maritime puke from the east instead of the west. Right on cue for the last few years. Last year or the year before it was I think 2 weeks straight of some type of easterly winds. 

My guess is that the backdoor prevented us from reaching 90° this week. The long range models had mid 80s for Wednesday into Friday  before the backdoor appeared in more recent forecasts. So they probably would have been at least 5°+ too cool like we have seen on the original long range forecast for yesterday. 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Too bad we could get such a strong -EPO pattern which is forecast to coincide with the cooler backdoor this week when we needed it during the winter.  All the best -EPOs since 13-14 and 14-15 have occurred during other seasons than the winter. Those were the last winters with wall to wall -EPO patterns. 

 

 

 

 

Like clockwork 

It's amazing 

We need to get back to those winters

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Like clockwork 

It's amazing 

We need to get back to those winters

It’s the West/Plains turn for bonanza winters now. That’ll continue as long as we have this Pacific SST orientation. It’s about as hostile as it gets for us. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Like clockwork 

It's amazing 

We need to get back to those winters

The interesting thing is that we had those 2 cold winters just before the record 9 winters of record warmth since 15-16. Almost like our last really cool summer in 2009 was followed by all the record summer warmth since 2010. The lone top 10 coldest February 2015 month got answered by a record amount of top 10 warmest winter months since then including the +13.3 December 2015 and 80° in February 2018 not to mention all the 40° winters in recent years. Then our lone top 10 coldest June into July 2009 was  answered by the warmest summer on record in 2010 and a record number of top 10 warmest summer months since then.

[SACRUS]

 

From 83 to 45 overnight now to a sunny 59.  Not as warm as monday but low 70s will mark the close of this nice but brief stretch. Next shot at 70s or above will be the close of the month.   Clouds and rain Wed - Fri - onshore wed night and Thu make it a bit (very) dreary.   Dry out this weekend but still cooler than normal overall 17th  through the 24th.  No sustained warmth the next 7 - 10 days, ridging pushing east for the close of the month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2002)
NYC: 92 (2002)
LGA: 89 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 26 (1943)
NYC: 29 (1928)
LGA: 31 (1943)

Historical:

 

1849: Charleston, South Carolina recorded their latest freeze ever with a temperature of 32 degrees while 6 inches of snow fell at Wilmington, North Carolina. Snow fell as far south as Milledgeville, Georgia. A damaging hard freeze occurred from Texas to Georgia devastating the cotton crop. 

 

1851: "The Lighthouse Storm" of 1851 struck New England on this date. Heavy gales and high seas pounded the coasts of New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts. The storm arrived at the time of a full moon, and high tide was producing unusually high storm tides. The storm was so named because it destroyed the lighthouse at Cohasset, Massachusetts. Two assistant lighthouse keepers were killed there when the structure was swept away by the storm tide.

1851 - The famous "Lighthouse Storm" raged near Boston Harbor. Whole gales and gigantic waves destroyed Minot Light with its two keepers still inside. The storm resulted in great shipping losses and coastal erosion. (David Ludlum)

1880 - A tornado near Marshall, MO, carried the heavy timbers of an entire home a distance of twelve miles. (The Weather Channel)

1933 - Franklin Lake, NH, was buried under 35 inches of snow. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1960 - A wind gust of 70 mph was measured at the Stapleton International Airport in Denver CO, their highest wind gust of record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A slow moving storm system produced heavy rain over North Carolina and the Middle Atlantic Coast States. More than six inches of rain drenched parts of Virginia, and flooding in Virginia claimed three lives. Floodwaters along the James River inundated parts of Richmond VA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced a foot of snow at Pittsburg VT. Severe thunderstorms produced baseball size hail and spawned five tornadoes in the Southern High Plains Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A cold front, ushering sharply colder air into the north central U.S., brought snow to parts of Montana and North Dakota. At midday the temperature at Cutbank MT was just 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced large hail and damaging winds across Oklahoma, with 99 reports of large hail and damaging winds during the evening and early nighttime hours. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Carney, and wind gusts to 100 mph in the Oklahoma City area which swept away many Federal tax returns being transported from a mail cart to a waiting truck about the time of the midnight deadline. Will Rogers Airport in Oklahoma City reported a record wind gust of 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[psv88]

40 this morning, house held the warmth from yesterday 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs Yesterday:

BLM: 83
EWR: 83
NYC:  82
New Brnswcl: 82
TTN: 80
LGA: 80
TEB: 79
ISP:  78
JFK:  77

[psv88]

Crazy how quickly so many trees just popped leaves yesterday. 2 days ago some of my trees had no semblance of leaves and today they are half leafed out already 

[uofmiami]

48 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Crazy how quickly so many trees just popped leaves yesterday. 2 days ago some of my trees had no semblance of leaves and today they are half leafed out already 

Full sun and warm temps will do that in mid April. Trees were just waiting for some nice days to arrive.

[Superstorm]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs Yesterday:

BLM: 83
EWR: 83
NYC:  82
New Brnswcl: 82
TTN: 80
LGA: 80
TEB: 79
ISP:  78
JFK:  77

Not enough vegetation in Central Park to throw off the numbers.

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Too bad we could get such a strong -EPO pattern which is forecast to coincide with the cooler backdoor this week when we needed it during the winter.  All the best -EPOs since 13-14 and 14-15 have occurred during other seasons than the winter. Those were the last winters with wall to wall -EPO patterns. 

 

 

 

 

Why the disconnect between ideal winter patterns not occurring inside DJF? It’s nice to see we can still get h5 looks like this but would be better during winter and not April 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Why the disconnect between ideal winter patterns not occurring inside DJF? It’s nice to see we can still get h5 looks like this but would be better during winter and not April 

Probably related to the big changes in the Pacific SSTs since 2014 along with the more frequent and amplified MJO 4-7s during the winter. 

A recent paper was just published on this remarkable warming  in the North Pacific SST patterns since the 2014 marine heatwave.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone &Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.

In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolutionsince 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.

[nycwinter]

much nicer today lower dewpoints nice breeze...

[Dark Star]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the backdoor prevented us from reaching 90° this week. The long range models had mid 80s for Wednesday into Friday  before the backdoor appeared in more recent forecasts. So they probably would have been at least 5°+ too cool like we have seen on the original long range forecast for yesterday. 

Of course the long range models also predicted feet of snow for NYC several times this past winter?

[SnoSki14]

Today is perfect. Yesterday was too warm

[bluewave]

On 4/15/2024 at 1:22 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

As a follow-up, this looks to be something specific to NYC (Central Park) ASOS. In addition to switching to an automated system at Central Park, they've also allowed a veritable jungle to encroach on the site in contravention of standard siting rules. So I would say it probably reflects a more substantial warm-season daytime cooling bias at NYC.

You can see the artificial warm season daytime cooling at Central Park when the ASOS was installed under the trees around 1995. That’s when the decrease in 90° days began to occur. So these charts show the previous 30 years vs the 30 years since the deep shade became a factor under the trees. 
 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Up to a sunny very blue sky 69 degrees.

[TJW014]

Reached 84 yesterday. Up to 74 from 47 this morning.

[psv88]

69. Could use another 5 degrees 

[TWCCraig]

Central Park at 73, hottest spot in the whole area as it should be. Amazing what a lack of foliage can do this time of year for that station

69 on the island 

[jm1220]

72 here. Perfect. 

[ag3]

72.5 here.

Glorious.

[psv88]

71. Beautiful 

[MJO812]

SNE snowstorm on the GFS in weenie range lol

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SNE snowstorm on the GFS in weenie range lol

Time to start the thread? 

[Will - Rutgers]

pristine night