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Strange that RGEM is showing rain for tomorrow afternoon. The other models are dry. I assume the RGEM is off its rocker. It's supposed to be a beautiful day. Probably the warmest day of the next 3 as well with temps well up into the 70s. 

Enjoy the 70s today through Tuesday., Too bad we're going to be backdoored with cool and damp weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully we can break out of it a little bit and have a decent day on Friday. 

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45 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From OKX AFD:

While there is deep-layer shear present with strong mid-level
flow, instability is generally weak and confined primarily to
the mid levels. Surface-based CAPE is located mainly north and
west of the NYC metro with SPC HREF max CAPE values of 500-1000
J/KG. Mean CAPE values are less than 250 J/KG. This is partly
due to the frontal timing in the evening after max insolation,
but also dry air in the low-levels. CAMs generally show the line
dissipating this evening as it approaches the area and in some
cases with no more than a spotty shower reaching the coast. So
the best chance will be across the interior with chances
decreasing toward the coast.

Yeah the later timing will probably cause the line to weaken as it approaches the NYC metro plus its still a touch early for good severe storms especially closer to the coast but chances will be ramping up over the next few weeks.

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This is one of those rare times that an advertised 6-10 day warm up underperforms. The much stronger 50/50 low and low over Iowa played a role here. It caused a narrower and more elongated ridge to allow a much stronger backdoor.

New run
C8339FE9-2D40-418B-90AD-E205BA75E8EE.thumb.png.02ef82d7afd0576669697b0cc98110a7.png

1CF2F33B-F983-435A-A3E1-EBDF3815E975.thumb.png.e753481d94a6d35af15e359d01a5128b.png

Old run

042F121A-EC2C-41C9-BCF8-353E0885C3AF.thumb.png.889e412f96dd01a20d3f6a7b0cca33cc.png

05BF99E0-04AB-4097-BD0B-E4B4615F9033.thumb.png.67723ad5fefcae0825161a96dfbb08f3.png

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Been a stretch of awesome snow winters for Alaska and much of the West which will likely continue as long as this perma-Nina and -PDO stays. This “winter” was another Nina in functionality for much of it just added with the juiced Nino southern jet. And next probably “winter” will probably be officially a strong Nina. 

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36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Been a stretch of awesome snow winters for Alaska and much of the West which will likely continue as long as this perma-Nina and -PDO stays. This “winter” was another Nina in functionality for much of it just added with the juiced Nino southern jet. And next probably “winter” will probably be officially a strong Nina. 

Yup. AK can’t loose in this new climate. 
 

Tomorrow looks beautiful…NYC hit 80 again? 

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Tomorrow and Tuesday will be warm days with widespread readings in the 70s. Tomorrow will be the warmer of the two days with readings rising well into the 70s and perhaps near 80° in the warmest spots. Afterward, it will turn somewhat cooler with unsettled conditions before a stronger cold shot arrives during the next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -4.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.405 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.3° (1.6° above normal).

 

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