Typhoon Tip Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was also west of 00z. At the least it's more rain. yeah... 2018+ 6 more year's worth of what's clearly a whiplash CC surge = glop bombs falling off of tree limbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah... 2018+ 6 more year's worth of CC = glop bombs falling off of tree limbs It's also 2.5 weeks deeper into March than the Mar 2018 big dog which was Mar 12-13. That matters a lot climatologically. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Big jump NW on EPS. But again it's borderline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Big jump NW on EPS. But again it's borderline. Yeah that was a huge shift from even 06z. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that was a huge shift from even 06z. As we thought…Elmer’s wants the Euro for its 2025 production goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Looks good! Hopefully another massive QPF bomb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Individual i took it as This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's also 2.5 weeks deeper into March than the Mar 2018 big dog which was Mar 12-13. That matters a lot climatologically. yeah I know. I was just Joshin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was also west of 00z. At the least it's more rain. Oh good. We do need the rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Looks good! Hopefully another massive QPF bomb Hopefully some of that is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Oh good. We do need the rain. Nantucket was in a moderate drought as of last Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Doing a bit of math and looking at the 15 day Kuchie totals on the GFS... I might owe @40/70 Benchmark an apology about Brattleboro not hitting close to average (need 24" between now and May 1st), Kuchie lands at 19", 10:1 at 22, and a few higher ensembles Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Hopefully some of that is snow Yeah out your way, fine. hopefully a pouring rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Guess it’s worth watching. GEFS and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 It is the long-range NAM, but...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 49 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah out your way, fine. hopefully a pouring rain here. No I'm with you, winter you've had your chance and blew it stop ruining spring now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 13 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said: No I'm with you, winter you've had your chance and blew it stop ruining spring now I hope N ORH gets smoked with 24-30" of cement 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Just now, Torch Tiger said: I hope N ORH gets smoked with 24-30" of cement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 BOX has no mention of anything Friday. Just have a sunny, dry day after rain Wed night / Thursday. Almost like they just tossed everything except op Euro . Not even a precip or rain mention lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: BOX has no mention of anything Friday. Just have a sunny, dry day after rain Wed night / Thursday. Almost like they just tossed everything except op Euro . Not even a precip or rain mention lol The focus period for the long term forecast will be Wednesday night through Thursday night (at least). This 24-36 hour period has the potential to deliver another round of 2-3 inches of rain to the region which (I`m sure we don`t need to remind you) only recently received this much rain and continues to see some rivers in flood stage. The most important thing to determining where/if we deal with exacerbated flooding will be the ultimate track of the storm and the axis of heaviest rainfall. It is too soon to have a high degree of confidence on where this axis sets up, but the most recent ECMWF global guidance has come west, in line with the GFS/Canadian guidance showing those large rainfall amounts over interior southern New England rather than further east/offshore. Of course, we don`t want to focus on deterministic model runs, but that agreement isn`t what you would want to see if you`re hoping for a miss offshore. At this time frame we focus on ensembles, two of which (the GEFS and EPS) are indicating a 20-40% and 10-30% chance of AOA 2 inches of rain respectively. Not huge numbers, but 3 days out certainly indicative of potential for concern given how saturated the ground is already. The atmospheric moisture and dynamics are there, with a 1.25" PWAT plume directly from the Gulf of Mexico and large scale ascent from favorable placement beneath a 150 kt upper jet, but just how/if the northern and southern streams interact is unknown at this time. Additionally, probabilistic hydrographs from the NAEFS and GEFS indicate renewed flooding for RI rivers. This system will also bring a period of gusty winds as it passes late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Was in RI today, Scituate/Smithfield was a RIVER coming down from those hills. Sides of roads washed out. Hopefully we can maximize the QPF on this next event to renew the excitement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Let's pray NWS is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: The focus period for the long term forecast will be Wednesday night through Thursday night (at least). This 24-36 hour period has the potential to deliver another round of 2-3 inches of rain to the region which (I`m sure we don`t need to remind you) only recently received this much rain and continues to see some rivers in flood stage. The most important thing to determining where/if we deal with exacerbated flooding will be the ultimate track of the storm and the axis of heaviest rainfall. It is too soon to have a high degree of confidence on where this axis sets up, but the most recent ECMWF global guidance has come west, in line with the GFS/Canadian guidance showing those large rainfall amounts over interior southern New England rather than further east/offshore. Of course, we don`t want to focus on deterministic model runs, but that agreement isn`t what you would want to see if you`re hoping for a miss offshore. At this time frame we focus on ensembles, two of which (the GEFS and EPS) are indicating a 20-40% and 10-30% chance of AOA 2 inches of rain respectively. Not huge numbers, but 3 days out certainly indicative of potential for concern given how saturated the ground is already. The atmospheric moisture and dynamics are there, with a 1.25" PWAT plume directly from the Gulf of Mexico and large scale ascent from favorable placement beneath a 150 kt upper jet, but just how/if the northern and southern streams interact is unknown at this time. Additionally, probabilistic hydrographs from the NAEFS and GEFS indicate renewed flooding for RI rivers. This system will also bring a period of gusty winds as it passes late week. Drying out Friday . At least mention rain and heavy snow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It's also 2.5 weeks deeper into March than the Mar 2018 big dog which was Mar 12-13. That matters a lot climatologically. More a reflection of the once a week bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Drying out Friday . At least mention rain and heavy snow you mean P/C forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 looks like the GFS is comin' on back to reality 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 18z gfs seems like a reasonable middle-ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Looks like a sloppy coating here if that verifies, we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 I'm looking for rain this time, Didn't need the snow/sleet this past weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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