40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: How one perceives sensible weather is also irrelevant. Data is just that...it is data and doesn't account for personal opinion or feeling. If this March at station x turns out to be +15 for the month and that same station was +15 in 2012, well then this month was just anomalous at that location, regardless of how the +15 resulted. Today is below-average across the region, however, when looking at it from a sensible approach, some people may find today rather decent, especially with the stronger sun angle. Some people may find today pretty lousy with the chilly wind and colder feel in the shade. But regardless of what one thinks, it doesn't change the fact that today is below-average for where we should be. Right. I get what a means, though....2012 was more sensibly appealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What’s up with the Euro and that icestorm Sunday , crazy model This was mentioned this morning from Bob Maxon on WVIT. He had made mention that the rain could linger from Sunday into Monday...... even Gil Simmons on WTNH mentioned Sunday night to Monday with a possibility of some sleet or freezing rain.... So it was mentioned this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 the biggest Euro run of our lives … will it replicate one of the most bizarre ice storm setups ever from 0z? stay tuned! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Saturday looks great for watching college basketball. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Wawa adding a high speed 6pack is cool Wait... what? Did they announce that? (I don't know they need it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Fairly close to average, actually. the lows this morning were probably pretty close to average, maybe even a few ticks above but even still, today is probably a good several degrees below average across many areas. Average high for BDL is around 50 and they're at 44. Average high for BTV is 44 and they at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 9 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Saturday looks great for watching college basketball. Going to NH to look at a boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Wait... what? Did they announce that? (I don't know they need it) Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: How one perceives sensible weather is also irrelevant. Data is just that...it is data and doesn't account for personal opinion or feeling. If this March at station x turns out to be +15 for the month and that same station was +15 in 2012, well then this month was just anomalous at that location, regardless of how the +15 resulted. Today is below-average across the region, however, when looking at it from a sensible approach, some people may find today rather decent, especially with the stronger sun angle. Some people may find today pretty lousy with the chilly wind and colder feel in the shade. But regardless of what one thinks, it doesn't change the fact that today is below-average for where we should be. Bullshit. Let's play a game. What if a month in summer is normal but dews were in the upper 60s and 70s every day. Would you remember it as a normal summer month or a hot one. Sensible matters otherwise you wouldn't have heat index and wind chill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Euro is interesting starting Friday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: the lows this morning were probably pretty close to average, maybe even a few ticks above but even still, today is probably a good several degrees below average across many areas. Average high for BDL is around 50 and they're at 44. Average high for BTV is 44 and they at 35. Yeah I was speaking for bos/orh, their average highs are like mid-u40's and that's basically what we have today 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: People will probably remember years where we had some extreme summer heat (such as 1995) but nobody is going to remember we had a stretch of 70-80+ days in March a decade ago. Nobody remembers summer heat. 88 or 100 is hot. People can’t tell the difference. What they do remember is cold and snowy winters. Unfortunately those don’t happen anymore… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: How one perceives sensible weather is also irrelevant. Data is just that...it is data and doesn't account for personal opinion or feeling. If this March at station x turns out to be +15 for the month and that same station was +15 in 2012, well then this month was just anomalous at that location, regardless of how the +15 resulted. Today is below-average across the region, however, when looking at it from a sensible approach, some people may find today rather decent, especially with the stronger sun angle. Some people may find today pretty lousy with the chilly wind and colder feel in the shade. But regardless of what one thinks, it doesn't change the fact that today is below-average for where we should be. I'm not going to argue that March 2024 hasn't departed way to the warm side (because it has so far and most certainly will end that way), but I'm not sure I necessarily agree with the bolded text. Take a hypothetical (admittedly extreme) scenario where the first half of March is departed -30 degrees, and the last half, +30 degrees. If you've binned the data by the month, you'd end up with a mean departure of 0 degrees. However, the statement, "March had a mean temperature that did not depart from the historical mean, therefore the temperature for the month of March was not anomalous, historically.", seems fundamentally untrue. You had crazy temperature swings and record breaking periods of hot and cold! You just don't see that at a monthly resolution. To produce a mean you have to bin the data in some timeframe though, and I guess monthly makes just as much sense as any other timeframe. I guess what I'm saying is that using mean temperature as a hard descriptor of how anomalous a month was temperature-wise is unsound. Or kinda pointless, I dunno. Shit, this is really just semantics I guess. Anyway, I'm not a met, just a dumbass, so, two cents, yadda yadda. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Euro finding ways to give the least interesting solution possible. #sameoleshit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 5 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: I'm not going to argue that March 2024 hasn't departed way to the warm side (because it has so far and most certainly will end that way), but I'm not sure I necessarily agree with the bolded text. Take a hypothetical (admittedly extreme) scenario where the first half of March is departed -30 degrees, and the last half, +30 degrees. If you've binned the data by the month, you'd end up with a mean departure of 0 degrees. However, the statement, "March had a mean temperature that did not depart from the historical mean, therefore the temperature for the month of March was not anomalous, historically.", seems fundamentally untrue. You had crazy temperature swings and record breaking periods of hot and cold! You just don't see that at a monthly resolution. To produce a mean you have to bin the data in some timeframe though, and I guess monthly makes just as much sense as any other timeframe. I guess what I'm saying is that using mean temperature as a hard descriptor of how anomalous a month was temperature-wise is unsound. Or kinda pointless, I dunno. Shit, this is really just semantics I guess. Anyway, I'm not a met, just a dumbass, so, two cents, yadda yadda. This doesn't matter unless you are measuring purely daily max temps. We are speaking of daily temps in general, which encompasses night time lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This doesn't matter unless you are measuring purely daily max temps. We are speaking of daily temps in general, which encompasses night time lows. Yeah, I know. In my hypothetical scenario the first half is departed on average by minus 30 degrees, and the last half, by plus 30. An extreme example, but this includes avg temp for the whole 24 hour day. I'm not talking max or min averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Just now, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Yeah, I know. In my hypothetical scenario the first half is departed on average by minus 30 degrees, and the last half, by plus 30. An extreme example, but this includes avg temp for the whole 24 hour day. I'm not talking max or min averages. Well, in that case the departure is zero....but that isn't the case this month...far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This doesn't matter unless you are measuring purely daily max temps. We are speaking of daily temps in general, which encompasses night time lows. What are the daily max temp departures MTD? I’m not a fan of Including night time lows. Those are obviously getting warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro finding ways to give the least interesting solution possible. #sameoleshit The end of month heatwave we were promised looks great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What are the daily max temp departures MTD? I’m not a fan of Including night time lows. Those are obviously getting warmer. I only have access to that for past months...not sure...probably slightly above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 EPS kind of interesting for Rt 2 north. This weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I only have access to that for past months...not sure...probably slightly above average. Yea that’s what it’s felt like. AN daily maxes but nothing like 2012. Im sure the month ends slightly AN with daily maxes and rages way AN with daily mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, in that case the departure is zero....but that isn't the case this month...far from it. Oh, I should make it clear that I'm fully in the March has been anomalous in its warmth camp, I'm just generically warning against the use of means/averages as be-all end-all descriptors. This month torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What are the daily max temp departures MTD? I’m not a fan of Including night time lows. Those are obviously getting warmer. just for the highs through yesterday.. BDL+10.3 (+9.5 on lows) ORH +8.9 BDR +9.4 it’s been a very warm March even more so just from a high temp perspective. Obviously we will probably need be up somewhere around +5 for highs after this chilly week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea that’s what it’s felt like. AN daily maxes but nothing like 2012. Im sure the month ends slightly AN with daily maxes and rages way AN with daily mins. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 This is a bad pattern, but 2012 was deinitely worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bullshit. Let's play a game. What if a month in summer is normal but dews were in the upper 60s and 70s every day. Would you remember it as a normal summer month or a hot one. Sensible matters otherwise you wouldn't have heat index and wind chill Sensible weather matters to the individual but I'm talking about this more from a data standpoint/historical perspective. 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nobody remembers summer heat. 88 or 100 is hot. People can’t tell the difference. What they do remember is cold and snowy winters. Unfortunately those don’t happen anymore… That's not true at all, people will remember both. Through conversations with many people I've heard them recall years or summers which had sweltering heat. People are going to remember what was most impactful to them or what was engraved in their brain by media. Instances of cold and/or alot of snow or periods of high heat/humidity are phenomena which will sit in people's minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: In other news besides the well above average day time highs this Match we’ve had so far similar to the first half of March 2012… Minnesota looks to have potential for an all time snowstorm late this weekend. It's unlikely survive the relay from mid into shorter range based on model history. That area geography up there has it even worse than we do with mid range 'big deal' verification. we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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