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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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6 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

What i don't understand about that map is the abnormally dry area just inland from the Gulf Coast, Are they saying that there will be little or no inland rainfall from all of the storms that that this map would indicate in the GOM especially the eastern GOM?

You’d have to look at the upper pattern it expects to be dominant, but the precip pattern implies recurving storms that are FL/East Coast hits, or storms get trapped under ridges and head west into Mexico. It isn’t unreasonable to think something like that might occur, but one storm could easily soak any of those areas, too. The latest CFSv2 monthlies are also showing inland areas from the Gulf being drier than normal. 

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On 7/10/2024 at 10:45 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

If you’re looking for a small wrench—here’s more detail on the SAL/stability potential. That said, even this doesn’t slow things down much.

 

I would argue that slowing development right off of the CV islands/African coast would increase the risk to the US.

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The Caribbean Low-level Jet (CLLJ) is usually why the Caribbean, from east to west, is a graveyard in June and July. Especially if there is a TUTT in place over top. The CLLJ tends to relax by mid-to-late August, if not earlier, as the SPH cells gain a bit of latitude. Generally, the westward extension of the Azores-Bermuda high propagate east and west across the basin in a tug of war with exiting CONUS trough and jetstream interaction. But this year, with a +AMO in place and cool neutral ENSO, we may see the Bermuda cell linger into the ECONUS coastal region, even if the eastward Azores extension waxes and wanes with digging central Atlantic troughs.



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http://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1811085088320278564?

 A 604 dm peaking 500 mb Bermuda high is progged on all of the models for tomorrow evening. This not only is one of the strongest Bermuda highs at 500 mb on record based on records back to 1950. It is THE strongest on record! The record strongest is 600 dm. Bermuda itself is progged to peak at 601-2, which would beat its record of 600 dm. It’s amazing what the warmest oceans on record are causing.

 The strongest on record for the entire Atlantic is 603 (just offshore Casablanca, Morocco). So, this looks to be the strongest on record for the entire Atlantic! The strongest on record for entire globe is 605.6 in the NPAC S of the Aleutians.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would argue that slowing development right off of the CV islands/African coast would increase the risk to the US.

Absolutely. Perhaps you get fewer short lived stuff in the eastern MDR, suppressing the NS count, but the truly vigorous waves that filter through are unlikely to have the kind of recurve paths like last year, and will have more favorable conditions close to home. 

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On 7/11/2024 at 11:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would argue that slowing development right off of the CV islands/African coast would increase the risk to the US.

I thought that the further out a storm develops in the Atlantic, the greater the chance it will re-curve before getting to the US. Unless the Bermuda high is in just the right place of course.

 

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1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

I thought that the further out a storm develops in the Atlantic, the greater the chance it will re-curve before getting to the US. Unless the Bermuda high is in just the right place of course.

 

 In a very general sense (with wide variations depending on the specific atmospheric setup) a tropical cyclone (TC) in the MDR will tend to travel to the right of a tropical disturbance that doesn’t become a TC. So, slowing development  near the CV Islands tends to mean a further left/lower latitude track. Lower latitude in the MDR means lowered chance of a safe recurve vs if had been positioned at a higher lat. as a result of becoming a TC further east. 

 Same idea for weaker TC (lower latitude/lower chance for safe recurve) vs stronger TC (higher latitude/higher chance for safe recurve).

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46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 In a very general sense (with wide variations depending on the specific atmospheric setup) a tropical cyclone (TC) in the MDR will tend to travel to the right of a tropical disturbance that doesn’t become a TC. So, slowing development  near the CV Islands tends to mean a further left/lower latitude track. Lower latitude in the MDR means lowered chance of a safe recurve vs if had been positioned at a higher lat. as a result of becoming a TC further east. 

 Same idea for weaker TC (lower latitude/lower chance for safe recurve) vs stronger TC (higher latitude/higher chance for safe recurve).

Where did Irma bomb out?

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Where did Irma bomb out?
Near the Azores if I remember correctly. It seems like every year lately we set a new milestone
Irma was indeed a classic long-tracking CV hurricane, but even by comparison to the historical record, it took precedence. After TCG occurred 120 n mi WSW of São Vicente in the Cabo Verde Islands, it only took 48 hrs to become a major hurricane. But even with respect to its initial RI, perhaps what stands out most is its track. Irma gained a decent amount of lattitude due to a modest weakness in the eastward extension of the Bermuda-Azores SPH. The hurricane also weakened due to some interaction with SAL and cooler SSTs, undergoing some internal restructuring. However, Irma turned back WSW during its four-day trek across the MDR. Irma's position timed perfectly and, unfortunately, with respect to the Leewards, with restrengthening of the ridge and east-north-easterly flow of the 700-500 hPa steering layer. Above normal SSTs across the central and western MDR combined with exceedingly stacked/aligned atmospheric flow from the surface to 300 hPa level and favorable ULAC aloft enabled Irma to become, at that time, the most intense CV hurricane on record (surpassing Isabel) at 914 mb prior to slamming Barbuda and St. Martin. Beyond the more technical meteorological discussion, in general, when you have a CV hurricane losing latitude on its westward track through the MDR, it is bad news.

Note: Irma first reached 20N at 40W. After its turn WSW, it didn't reach that lattitude again until 66W, north of Puerto Rico.

329329dde51ffaf759c865742528fc33.jpg
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If cyclones around the world are not as above average as the Atlantic since 1995, then that is something to watch, as you can say that we have already been hitting the peak part of the potential. I haven't done the research, but if the rest of the globe is say 125%, while the Atlantic is 200%, then I would have a hard time forecasting a record number of storms, and the max end ranges of CSU and NHC of 25 storms could be a little bit of a stretch, given that you would need absolutely perfect conditions for the majority of the season. 

With that being said, the central-ENSO subsurface looks very healthy in the direction of La Nina, with max anomalies of -5c to -6c today. I've found that this subsurface region has higher correlation to global impacts than surface SSTs, and with the surface taking time to cool, knowing that there is a stronger correlated region could be the difference between expecting 15-20 storms (Neutral) vs 20-25 storms (La Nina). Right now it looks like a Moderate La Nina in the subsurface, while Nino 3.4 is Neutral. 1995, 2005, 2020 were all years where the ENSO subsurface was much colder than the surface from the Summer through September. 

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Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, though they could be off obviously, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11. 

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

 Opinions?
 

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59 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, though they could be off obviously, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11. 

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

 Opinions?
 

Agree, some of the high end numbers of named storms out there may be in trouble.  ACE numbers maybe less in jeopardy if we get some more intense long trackers like Beryl but even so those high ACE numbers could be on shaky ground as well.

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I know it’s interesting from a scientific standpoint to capture the number of named storms in a preseason forecast, but we know from experience that hurricane season is quality over quantity. Recent years have certainly demonstrated that.
 

No doubt in my mind big ACE storms are coming, even if we don’t run down the full list of names this year. 

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There is a reason we only averaged 9 NS/yr in the Atlantic for the longest time. Add to it the fact that Africa has been super hot: 

1f.gif

And we don't have a lot of tropical convection right now. Some have suggested that the MJO becomes favorable in a few weeks, but there is a little bit of a model split. Atlantic SSTs and ENSO certainly still support a way above average season. 

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