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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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This should be an active season. The NOAA has issued a La Nina watch. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml That gives 55% of La Nina conditions developing by the Summer. 

ENSO subsurface often precedes surface conditions, and can indicate developing ENSO events. Latest TAO/Triton maps have an ENSO subsurface cold anomalies that are -3c in the central-region, which supports La Nina development. Here is a time sensitive map:

 TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif 

January IRI models have a La Nina developing by the Hurricane Season: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table 

https://ibb.co/LhF2NYx

Here is a climate model showing Strong La Nina development

2c.png.cac286b31ee20d12684c2d6d89eeb495.png

In 1995, the AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) index switched to positive, and since then it's been rising/still hasn't peaked. 

Atlantic Hurricane season activity is strongly correlated to the AMO, and Atlantic Hurricane season activity has also been in an upward incline since the 1995 AMO switch. Here is a smoothed graph of number of Tropical Storms by year: 

 485492383_AtlHurr.png.8693b96bee6f89b84182db872a08effa.png

Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states:

El Nino (8 years): 12.5 TS, 5.4 Hurr, 2.5 MH

Neutral (10 years): 16.4 TS, 8.2 Hurr, 3.8 MH

La Nina (10 years): 17.9 TS, 9.2 Hurr, 4.2 MH

Here is a smoothed graph of average number of La Nina Named Storms per year, since 1995: 

306386107_AtlHurr1.png.2be1a730db075725c64a3f60c1d7f267.png

In September 2022, the AMO peaked at an all time high of +0.662, and is still rising/in an inclining phase. I plotted monthly AMO numbers, up until the CPC last updated the dataset, which was January 2023:  

153223738_AMO1.png.60dbf2887b58171eaca5ff305d8c88ac.png

If you smooth out the index, it looks like a very clear rising phase is still underway: 

AMO3.png.6569dd51bf98f26f291cd338c397118b.png

 

The Atlantic activity has been especially strong lately:

- 3 of the last 4 years have had 20+ Named Storms

- The average in the last 4 years is 21.5 Named Storms/year 

- 7 of the last 8 years have had 7+ Hurricanes

- The average is 8.4 Hurricanes/year for the last 8 years

I believe the PDO phase, where we are at a peak of -PDO cycle, with values only seen before in the mid-1950s, also favors greater than average Atlantic Hurricane activity. For having a Strong El Nino in the past year, the PDO didn't moderate that much. It's still deeply negative:

113456033_pdo(1).png.6ae779e27d4180c454bb8c97fb107415.png

 

Since 1995, PDO <-1 for Aug-Sept-Oct (15 years) averages 17.1 TS, 8.3 Hurr, 3.6 MH.

Since 1995, PDO >-1 for Aug-Sept-Oct (14 years) averages 12.0 TS, 6.1 Hurr, 3.1 MH.

Never too early to start discussing! Thoughts? 

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The orientation and strength of current Atlantic SSTs supports an active season. Here is an anomaly map:

 1379847933_1C(2).gif.d3d05fefd391c9c59ce7af08bb2c54bd.gif

Since 1995, Positive analogs:  2016, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2002, 1998

Since 1995, Negative analogs:  2018, 2015, 2014, 2012, 2009, 1999 

2c.png.d994c4a7238c62c3d4ad03c3d18c3106.png

Positive analogs: 15.5 NS/yr, 7.7 Hurr/yr, 3.3 MH/yr

Negative analogs: 12.3 NS/yr, 6.5 Hurr/yr, 2.5 MH/yr. 

(12 analogs encompasses 41% of total timeframe (95-23))

Feb 2024 is the warmest east of the Caribbean of all the analogs. 

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Question:

 

With the  greatest abnormalities in SST so far east would that increase the chances of early recurves? My understanding is that storms will lift poleward as they get stronger especially east of the islands.

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On 2/15/2024 at 1:38 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This should be an active season. The NOAA has issued a La Nina watch. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml That gives 55% of La Nina conditions developing by the Summer. 

ENSO subsurface often precedes surface conditions, and can indicate developing ENSO events. Latest TAO/Triton maps have an ENSO subsurface cold anomalies that are -3c in the central-region, which supports La Nina development. Here is a time sensitive map:

 TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif 

January IRI models have a La Nina developing by the Hurricane Season: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table 

https://ibb.co/LhF2NYx

Here is a climate model showing Strong La Nina development

2c.png.cac286b31ee20d12684c2d6d89eeb495.png

In 1995, the AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) index switched to positive, and since then it's been rising/still hasn't peaked. 

Atlantic Hurricane season activity is strongly correlated to the AMO, and Atlantic Hurricane season activity has also been in an upward incline since the 1995 AMO switch. Here is a smoothed graph of number of Tropical Storms by year: 

 485492383_AtlHurr.png.8693b96bee6f89b84182db872a08effa.png

Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states:

El Nino (8 years): 12.5 TS, 5.4 Hurr, 2.5 MH

Neutral (10 years): 16.4 TS, 8.2 Hurr, 3.8 MH

La Nina (10 years): 17.9 TS, 9.2 Hurr, 4.2 MH

Here is a smoothed graph of average number of La Nina Named Storms per year, since 1995: 

306386107_AtlHurr1.png.2be1a730db075725c64a3f60c1d7f267.png

In September 2022, the AMO peaked at an all time high of +0.662, and is still rising/in an inclining phase. I plotted monthly AMO numbers, up until the CPC last updated the dataset, which was January 2023:  

153223738_AMO1.png.60dbf2887b58171eaca5ff305d8c88ac.png

If you smooth out the index, it looks like a very clear rising phase is still underway: 

AMO3.png.6569dd51bf98f26f291cd338c397118b.png

 

The Atlantic activity has been especially strong lately:

- 3 of the last 4 years have had 20+ Named Storms

- The average in the last 4 years is 21.5 Named Storms/year 

- 7 of the last 8 years have had 7+ Hurricanes

- The average is 8.4 Hurricanes/year for the last 8 years

I believe the PDO phase, where we are at a peak of -PDO cycle, with values only seen before in the mid-1950s, also favors greater than average Atlantic Hurricane activity. For having a Strong El Nino in the past year, the PDO didn't moderate that much. It's still deeply negative:

113456033_pdo(1).png.6ae779e27d4180c454bb8c97fb107415.png

 

Since 1995, PDO <-1 for Aug-Sept-Oct (15 years) averages 17.1 TS, 8.3 Hurr, 3.6 MH.

Since 1995, PDO >-1 for Aug-Sept-Oct (14 years) averages 12.0 TS, 6.1 Hurr, 3.1 MH.

Never too early to start discussing! Thoughts? 

Honest question, which is not in any way accusatory or meant to spark climate debate.

 

First, let me begin with a statement.   NOAA AND NHC are now seemingly willing to name storms which up until the mid 90s, would have never been closely watched and/or named.   With satellite tech. advancing exponentially, and more funding being allocated towards meteorology in the public sector, this is understandable.  

 

However, it is a fact that benign storms that have little impact on any landmass other than PERHAPS a ground swell, and mainly just shipping interests, are now often named.   There are plenty of examples of non-comvective swirls being named, only to dissipate within 24 hours.   Prior to the 90s, only professionals would ever know of these tropical or extratropical systems.  

 

Now to my questions....

 

Is it disingenuous to use these "named storm" stats within historical data that is used for climatological trends?   Correlation and causation are convoluted as a result of "named storm" statistics. 

 

I'm sure this is a topic that some people have addressed.   Unfortunately, the general population is unaware of this topic.  They focus solely on headlines and "scary" numbers and perceived trends.   

 

I'd love to hear some feedback, as it's a question my father and I often have discussion about. 

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7 hours ago, dseagull said:

Honest question, which is not in any way accusatory or meant to spark climate debate.

First, let me begin with a statement.   NOAA AND NHC are now seemingly willing to name storms which up until the mid 90s, would have never been closely watched and/or named.   With satellite tech. advancing exponentially, and more funding being allocated towards meteorology in the public sector, this is understandable.  

However, it is a fact that benign storms that have little impact on any landmass other than PERHAPS a ground swell, and mainly just shipping interests, are now often named.   There are plenty of examples of non-comvective swirls being named, only to dissipate within 24 hours.   Prior to the 90s, only professionals would ever know of these tropical or extratropical systems.  

Now to my questions....

Is it disingenuous to use these "named storm" stats within historical data that is used for climatological trends?   Correlation and causation are convoluted as a result of "named storm" statistics. 

I'm sure this is a topic that some people have addressed.   Unfortunately, the general population is unaware of this topic.  They focus solely on headlines and "scary" numbers and perceived trends.   

I'd love to hear some feedback, as it's a question my father and I often have discussion about. 

I think we had satellite technology going way back into the 1970s and 80s. There is maybe 0.4-0.8 storms per year that are named now, that weren't named several decades ago. I know as a kid in the 1990s, I was always watching every little swirl, and they almost always were named. The uptick in 1995 was more a matter of Atlantic SSTs getting warmer, vs new guidelines. 

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8 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

Question:

With the  greatest abnormalities in SST so far east would that increase the chances of early recurves? My understanding is that storms will lift poleward as they get stronger especially east of the islands.

La Nina in general supports patterns that are associated with long track storms across the Atlantic basin vs easily recurving out to sea. If you look at Atlantic hurricane tracks by year, there is a pretty big difference historically between La Nina and El Nino years. A lot of El Nino storms recurve, and some La Nina storms recurve, some don't. It's not a perfect correlation though. 

I don't really know if warmer SSTs in the SE N. Atlantic would be a big enough factor to favor more recurves, it's probably a small difference. 

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TNA data: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/tna.data

Tropical Northern Atlantic Index
Anomaly of the average of the monthly SST from 5.5N to 23.5N and 15W to 57.5W.
2023     0.47    0.22    0.64    0.78    1.04    1.41    1.41    1.36    1.43    1.32    1.09    1.17

We are, by a pretty good margin, the highest on record for this index [2023]. 2nd place was year 2010, and here is that season: 

2010, 19NS, 12Hurr, 5 MH
+1 year, 2011: 19NS, 7Hurr, 4 MH
1.gif.50916f160e78d24011972b67fc298719.gif
Using that Jun-Dec 2023 was so extreme, the most extreme 7-month period on record going back to 1948, I rolled that forward the coming Atlantic Hurricane season: 
1a.gif.56fce28f343e6d761c6a14c3a7d133f7.gif
The warmth usually spreads out. 
Sea level pressure:
1aa.gif.4950211146287b4f437ab78a611a7b79.gif
500mb High pressure north of the original TNA area:
1aaa.gif.b71834ad9416ae55d6913f5653d47438.gif
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16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

La Nina in general supports patterns that are associated with long track storms across the Atlantic basin vs easily recurving out to sea. If you look at Atlantic hurricane tracks by year, there is a pretty big difference historically between La Nina and El Nino years. A lot of El Nino storms recurve, and some La Nina storms recurve, some don't. It's not a perfect correlation though. 

I don't really know if warmer SSTs in the SE N. Atlantic would be a big enough factor to favor more recurves, it's probably a small difference. 

Thanks so much for the quick response.

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On 2/20/2024 at 1:30 PM, bigtenfan said:

Question:

 

With the  greatest abnormalities in SST so far east would that increase the chances of early recurves? My understanding is that storms will lift poleward as they get stronger especially east of the islands.

I think it would slightly increase the odds if storms develop out there but I think a bigger factor for recurves is the strength of the Bermuda high and whether or not the storms find the weakness to turn.  The high temps also don't necessarily mean storms will get strong out there, as we've seen the last few years shear and dry air have been shutting down the MDR quite a bit.

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14 hours ago, cptcatz said:

I think it would slightly increase the odds if storms develop out there but I think a bigger factor for recurves is the strength of the Bermuda high and whether or not the storms find the weakness to turn.  The high temps also don't necessarily mean storms will get strong out there, as we've seen the last few years shear and dry air have been shutting down the MDR quite a bit.

Follow up question:

 

Would a stronger storm that much  further out have a better chance of poleward movement  even bumping up against a strong Bermuda/Azores high?

 

I have read many times on this board that some of the biggest risks to the islands westward  are storms that stay weak until it passes 60/65 degrees and then  gets stronger and becomes a threat to the islands and westward. I guess what I am asking is if a stronger storm further east have a better chance of finding that weakness to recurve to.

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I’m fairly confident we are going to see a historic season. The only hindrance from record breaking may be a Nina background state lag early on. Once to peak season, we should fire on all cylinders. I can see a 2017 type parade of high end storms tracking out of the MDR. Bermuda high placement will determine if it’s a CONUS year.

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On 2/23/2024 at 11:52 AM, bigtenfan said:

Follow up question:

 

Would a stronger storm that much  further out have a better chance of poleward movement  even bumping up against a strong Bermuda/Azores high?

 

I have read many times on this board that some of the biggest risks to the islands westward  are storms that stay weak until it passes 60/65 degrees and then  gets stronger and becomes a threat to the islands and westward. I guess what I am asking is if a stronger storm further east have a better chance of finding that weakness to recurve to.

The further East a storm forms, the better the chance that mid-level weakness a shallow wave wouldn't be influenced by would recurve that storm.  Most CV storms recurve.  Most, not all, Hurricane Donna, a storm my parents remembered, that hit every state to some degree in 1960, was a depression before Cabo Verde.  1938, a storm my 90 year old Mom still remembers (her older brother with cystic fibrosis had to walk home from school with tree limbs coming down) was also a long tracker.  There have been quite a few not quite technically Cabo Verde storms that made it.  Isabel comes to mind.  The further E the development, the better the chance of a recurve, but more MDR storms, if the percentage of early recurvers stays the same means more storms that didn't recurve.  Oh, and warming ocean may be displacing the Bermuda-Azores high to the W.  https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/24/5/2010jcli3829.1.xml

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No idea about 2024 in particular (interested to see if the March CANSIPS and NMME are consistent), but while noticing the satellite era produced little to no increase in named storms due to better detection (maybe because the 70s/80s were an inactive period following an active period), there has been a noticeable shift just since the 1995 active period began.   An active period becoming hyperactive.  Commented on before in the La Nina or El Nino threads (as an engineer, I think of a Carnot engine as a way to make something I don't really understand (meteorology) more understandable), maybe in a warming climate warming the polar region eventually trends numbers down (the heat sink of the Carnot engine warming reduces efficiency), but for now, warming MDR is winning the battle.  Image from a link by @raindancewxin the La Nina thread.

NamedStormsbyYear.png

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New Euro seasonal is pretty ridiculous for this season. The numbers for mean ACE (165+), named storms (17+), and hurricanes (9) in the Atlantic through September (so not even including late season) are all pretty much off the charts.

Granted, forecast skill for such predictions is modest at best in March, but also a signal like that has never been seen previously in the ECMWF long range forecasts.

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The latest NMME now reaches into the heart of the Atlantic tropical season, and it's pretty eye-opening. Mighty strong positive AMO look. Obviously too early to start hyping as things are fluid and we still have a few months of long-range modeling precursors; however, if this pattern does evolve, it would certainly favor a low-shear MDR and long-track setup for Cape Verde hurricanes. SST patterns are not the end all, be all, of said pattern, but such a look could support north-central Atlantic and Bermuda ridging as well.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas4.html

7bd6510a8fe66057ada62a0c28a81c99.jpg

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While US interests are obviously on alert, the big takeaway I have is that the Caribbean is in for a brutal, brutal season if these models are correct.  And I tend to believe them because they were excellent last year at this time based on how 2023 played out

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CPC is now giving >80% chance of La Nina for peak Hurricane season

654001145_1(4).png.51769e7a48fd48fc580c068456fef8f0.png

Climate models are keying in on possibly a transition to Strong La Nina later this year

714491581_1(11).thumb.gif.615c5b49c917d9211804cc5eb39f95c1.gif

The SE Atlantic Ocean is still very warm, as several countries in Africa have recently broken temperature records. 

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Big US SE ridge pattern, extending up into Canada Jan 23 - March 14:

1060163279_1(12).gif.b61cb13a19bce3b451784df9e63a5dec.gif

Hadley Cell extends north in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in April (analogs rolled forward).. 

22a.png.8d7549aac669263fac5db68bb8c9b914.png

A correlation to following Atlantic Hurricane season has been strong since 2012:

Positive analogs: 2023, 2020, 2017, 2012,  Average Storms for Positive analog seasons:  21.8 NS, 9.8 Hurricanes, 4.5 Major Hurricanes

Negative analogs: 2015, 2014,  Average Storms for Negative analog seasons: 9.5 NS, 5.0 Hurricanes, 2.0 Major Hurricanes

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  • 2 weeks later...

Accuweather is such a joke. At least show some semblance of professionalism instead of fearmongering like some weenie posting on Reddit.



Also, a "15% chance of 30 named storms or more" seems rather high considering it's only happened once on record. How does a meteorologist even determine that statistic scientifically? "Explosive" as a headline is just clickbaity BS.
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Like everyone else, just saw the CSU forecast. Holy moly. I see nothing holding this season back besides luck. Here in NC, we’ve had a lot of that recently so praying it holds. Nuclear SSTs with developing La Niña…. Good luck everyone! Going to be an active year tracking 

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35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Like everyone else, just saw the CSU forecast. Holy moly. I see nothing holding this season back besides luck. Here in NC, we’ve had a lot of that recently so praying it holds. Nuclear SSTs with developing La Niña…. Good luck everyone! Going to be an active year tracking 

Unless my math is wrong, wasn't Fran the last major hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina?

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54 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Like everyone else, just saw the CSU forecast. Holy moly. I see nothing holding this season back besides luck. Here in NC, we’ve had a lot of that recently so praying it holds. Nuclear SSTs with developing La Niña…. Good luck everyone! Going to be an active year tracking 

Hopefully for the US 2024 will end up like 2010, one of their analogs. That year there were zero H hits and only 2 TS hits (one on the low end) on the lower 48.

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12 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Unless my math is wrong, wasn't Fran the last major hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina?

That is correct. Florence and Floyd were both expected to come in as majors but both weakened significantly (wind wise). Obviously they both had rainfall impacts that exceeded their wind category. I don’t believe in “we’re due” but 1996 was a LONG time ago especially in a state that takes so many hurricane hits

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7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That is correct. Florence and Floyd were both expected to come in as majors but both weakened significantly (wind wise). Obviously they both had rainfall impacts that exceeded their wind category. I don’t believe in “we’re due” but 1996 was a LONG time ago especially in a state that takes so many hurricane hits

Bonnie 1998 was also close. 

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