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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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Heh, suddenly the Euro wants to develop something (sub)tropical off the SE coast in the next few days. Stays offshore. Just kind of speaks to this nebulous signal over the next ten days or so. 

72

vD7QKtq.png
 

120

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26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@GaWx similar to the Ukmet? Also, look at the EPAC signal now. Interesting.

Today’s 12Z run is the 6th UKMET run in a row with the TCG off the SE coast with this one stronger (TS) but back to moving NE safely off the E coast (0Z was moving N toward NC):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 28.6N 78.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.06.2024 48 28.6N 78.9W 1007 35
0000UTC 13.06.2024 60 29.0N 78.3W 1009 33
1200UTC 13.06.2024 72 30.8N 75.2W 1007 44
0000UTC 14.06.2024 84 31.7N 74.5W 1008 36
1200UTC 14.06.2024 96 31.6N 73.3W 1009 33
0000UTC 15.06.2024 108 33.6N 71.4W 1008 31
1200UTC 15.06.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

 

Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET dropped the W Gulf TCG that it had on its prior 2 runs.

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Euro and Canadian ensembles don't support the GFS  and ensembles very low NW Caribbean/Gulf pressure at 2 weeks at all, but the entertainment value of what are likely spurious storms is high.

 

Back in the real world the rain from the moisture pooling in the NW Caribbean and Gulf isn't a bad thing, the heaviest rain looks to fall in S. Florida which is in level 2 (severe) drought.

GEFS_low_environmental_pressure..png

beneficial_rainfall..png

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I've been alluding to this window of favorability and I have a little time to explain what I've meant. 

The overall setup over the next 10 days or so is a bit tricky. For for this early in the season, it's our first real window for some type of development. What makes this interesting is that the guidance after waffling for about a week or so are now highlighting a broad window with areas to casually watch imo. Let's start by talking about the main features associated with this potential window opening.  

-Currently we have combined with diffluent flow we have an anomalous plume of tropical moisture streaming north into the Gulf of Mexico around a ridge nosing into the Caribbean. 

SGUYCdx.png

 

As this happens, we have broad cyclonic flow over the western Caribbean and Central America. Not quite declared a CAG from what I've seen, but that's possible at some point within the next week or so. Nothing spectacularly strong, but you just need a window for a seedling to develop. The odds of TC genesis also end up slightly elevated given how exceptionally warm this region is this early in the season. 

Tc6OqD0.png

WFXY3XK.png

 

Let's turn to three areas. 

1) Gulf of Mexico/SE US Coast (3-7 Days) 
This is the most immediate area of interest. The signal for organization and possible TC genesis, however muted, has existed for this region first. The signal has bounced around too. The GFS originally took some of the energy ejected out of the Caribbean and tried to organize a low in the Gulf. For a while it was very aggressive with the signal but has settled to a more climatologically favored broad and moisture laden low in the eastern Gulf. The Canadian has been further west, and the Euro was barely on board until recently. Not a surprise given how weak the signal overall has been at times. 

However, the signal in the last day has diverged a bit, with the Euro taking the ejecting energy across Florida and developing a low, perhaps (sub)tropical, off the SE coast before going harmlessly out to sea. Today the GFS has tried moving toward this solution. 

EPS

giphy.gif

GEFS

gBysROI.png

 

This is an interesting short term shift, but it may very well may be rooted in a realistic seed. Both the GFS and especially Euro take an area of vorticity currently in the Gulf across the FL Peninsula midweek before some type of development. The Euro is most aggressive. 

Although it is highly sheared, the small area of vorticity has held on and tightened a bit today. 

xTUZWcB.gif

EQPtgjA.gif

 

giphy.gif

Let's not overstate it--it doesn't look like much. But again, we watch for seedlings this time of year that can become something more organized eventually. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow and the coming days. One thing to watch is if it gets trapped under a ridge that will bring heat to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week but that's just speculation given the latest GFS run. The Euro develops a modest low that gets swept out to sea in straightforward fashion. 

giphy.gif

 

2) BoC Low (6-9 Days)
This has been a consistent signal the last day or so by the Euro/EPS, and the GFS/GEFS are on board to an extent. Whether this comes from an EPAC disturbance or something that rolls up as a result of being on the Atlantic side of a CAG remains to be seen. 

kOSni1W.png

mRegDpL.png

I'd bet on any vorticity finding itself in the Bay of Campeche developing provided it has sufficient time. 


3) SW Atlantic (10+ Days) 
Not worth much ink, but as an Atlantic ridge flexes in the long range we may want to watch if there's a sharp wave or piece of a trough that breaks off and tries to develop. Again, not worth much for now. 

luOnxAs.png

 

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Euro and Canadian ensembles don't support the GFS  and ensembles very low NW Caribbean/Gulf pressure at 2 weeks at all, but the entertainment value of what are likely spurious storms is high.
 
Back in the real world the rain from the moisture pooling in the NW Caribbean and Gulf isn't a bad thing, the heaviest rain looks to fall in S. Florida which is in level 2 (severe) drought.
GEFS_low_environmental_pressure..thumb.png.24290144f72ee3e6a81c0ab5fc44b7f3.png
beneficial_rainfall..thumb.png.9898e799c9e31351135fd3943ab8e97b.png
We can easily handle a foot of rain over 5 days, problem is training on the SW coast and you get to 15 inches in less than a day. We had an event in Fort Lauderdale a year ago, 20+ in 12 hours but very isolated, this setup is very different. Lots of noise in the models, gulf really isnt favorable for at least a week, maybe something finds a small window but its all about the rain for this one and the texas system down the road,maybe.
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1 hour ago, jlauderdal said:
7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:
Euro and Canadian ensembles don't support the GFS  and ensembles very low NW Caribbean/Gulf pressure at 2 weeks at all, but the entertainment value of what are likely spurious storms is high.
 
Back in the real world the rain from the moisture pooling in the NW Caribbean and Gulf isn't a bad thing, the heaviest rain looks to fall in S. Florida which is in level 2 (severe) drought.
GEFS_low_environmental_pressure..thumb.png.24290144f72ee3e6a81c0ab5fc44b7f3.png
beneficial_rainfall..thumb.png.9898e799c9e31351135fd3943ab8e97b.png

We can easily handle a foot of rain over 5 days, problem is training on the SW coast and you get to 15 inches in less than a day. We had an event in Fort Lauderdale a year ago, 20+ in 12 hours but very isolated, this setup is very different. Lots of noise in the models, gulf really isnt favorable for at least a week, maybe something finds a small window but its all about the rain for this one and the texas system down the road,maybe.

I'm 50/50 on Alberto developing off SEUSA and then OTS.  Anything after seems quite uncertain.  Two weenie GFS runs in a row, but when has the GFS been right 2 weeks out?

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Would certainly be a harbinger of a hyperactive season if we beat the EPAC to the first storm of the NW hemisphere…

 

Model signals are going to back on and off development over the next few days but in the long run we are entering a more favorable period for disturbances.

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0Z UKMET:

1. keeps streak going to 7 of runs with a TC off the SE US coast:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 30.3N 77.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.06.2024 48 30.6N 77.5W 1010 31
1200UTC 13.06.2024 60 32.4N 74.1W 1009 35
0000UTC 14.06.2024 72 33.3N 73.8W 1010 32
1200UTC 14.06.2024 84 34.9N 71.9W 1011 28
0000UTC 15.06.2024 96 38.6N 67.7W 1007 36
1200UTC 15.06.2024 108 42.4N 62.9W 1004 37
0000UTC 16.06.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
—————————————-

2. Again the UKMET doesn’t have a W GOM TCG.

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NHC lemon'ed it:

Quote
1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Offshore Southeast U.S.:
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
This system is expected to move northeastward across Florida during 
the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later 
this week.  Environmental conditions are expected to be generally 
unfavorable, although some slow development is possible when the 
system is offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida 
during the next few days.  For more information, see products issued 
by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service 
Forecast Offices.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Weather Prediction Center products can be found at 
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and National Weather Service forecast 
information can be found at www.weather.gov

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

 

two_atl_7d0.png

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Makes me feel good when an area I tag early eventually gets highlighted by the NHC lol. 

90L is getting sheared terribly but the convection is quite strong. 

61653956.gif?0.17629066049906583
 

Some of the high res guidance is ugly in the coming days with regard to rainfall. 

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I'm still thinking a closed low develops off SEUSA from the vorticity just W of TPA.  It'll be an E weighted system, it may never get beyond a TD or whatever they would call an STD if that abbreviation wasn't more widely know for something else.  Might still be Alberto.  IMBY, the op GFS and ensembles with a weak and broad low buried in the BoC but swinging deep moisture towards my house, with PW off 2.5" or higher this time next week, I like that.  It has been a fairly wet spring, with an unusual amount of severe weather in SETX, but I think damper ground helps limit the feed back of the inevitable Mexican heat Ridge, and helps avoid the repeat of Summer 2023 here.

Its possible.png

KIAH_showers_highPW.png

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23 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

image.thumb.png.da603b2644f35b9fcb386252751c4448.png

Africa Standing Wave likely to take hold through July soon. 

This would suggest if nothing happens in the next week or 10 days, nothing will happen for the next 6 weeks.  At least the old climatology, June and July combined produced just more than 1 TC, or a sedate Atlantic for the second half of June and July would be normal.

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90L will have a narrow chance for weak development off the SE coast, but the signal for something in the BoC has grown a bit since my post yesterday. Not a bad look on the ensembles. 
 

Edit: adding EPS

56220419.gif?0.6098850163218481

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17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

3.93" in the last hour:yikes:

The cloud top temperatures with the convection have been as cold
as -70 to -75C, and with a highly tropical environment with PWs
pushing 2.25+ inches, some of the rainfall rates have been
reaching 3 to 4 inches/hour over the last hour. Part of the
convective band is offshore, but part of it over the last hour has
edged onshore and is impacting the urban corridor from near
Bradenton southward down through Sarasota.

Recent radar trends suggest some northward advance of the
convective band with the low center also showing some evidence of
deepening somewhat which suggests the ongoing convective
organization, albeit it sheared, over the southeast part of the
low center may maintain itself in response to stronger low-level
convergence/forcing.

This suggests at least in the near-term that extremely heavy
rainfall rates within this convective band may continue to edge
farther inland and persist, with impacts in particular along the
Bradenton to Sarosota urban corridor.

Given extremely high rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches/hour, some
storm totals over the next 2 to 3 hours may locally approach or
exceed 6 to 8 inches. Urban flash flooding is considered likely
given the set-up, and this situation will need to be closely
monitored going into the evening hours.

Orrison

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0425&yr=2024

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0Z UKMET: 990 mb Newfoundland Sunday:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 30.2N  77.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 13.06.2024   36  30.0N  77.4W     1009            39
    0000UTC 14.06.2024   48  31.7N  75.9W     1008            33
    1200UTC 14.06.2024   60  32.9N  73.8W     1007            36
    0000UTC 15.06.2024   72  34.5N  71.8W     1005            32
    1200UTC 15.06.2024   84  37.6N  67.7W     1001            41
    0000UTC 16.06.2024   96  42.2N  61.6W      993            44
    1200UTC 16.06.2024  108  47.8N  55.0W      990            37
    0000UTC 17.06.2024  120  53.6N  51.5W      982            42
    1200UTC 17.06.2024  132              POST-TROPICAL

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