Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET: 990 mb Newfoundland Sunday:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 30.2N  77.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 13.06.2024   36  30.0N  77.4W     1009            39
    0000UTC 14.06.2024   48  31.7N  75.9W     1008            33
    1200UTC 14.06.2024   60  32.9N  73.8W     1007            36
    0000UTC 15.06.2024   72  34.5N  71.8W     1005            32
    1200UTC 15.06.2024   84  37.6N  67.7W     1001            41
    0000UTC 16.06.2024   96  42.2N  61.6W      993            44
    1200UTC 16.06.2024  108  47.8N  55.0W      990            37
    0000UTC 17.06.2024  120  53.6N  51.5W      982            42
    1200UTC 17.06.2024  132              POST-TROPICAL

Euro and GFS were back to a more aggressive development signal last night and this morning as well. Shear still looks really tough, but even on the guidance you can see the low organizing some as it heads off NE. 

I think 90L overperformed yesterday in spinning up a concise mesolow with persistent but sheared deep convection. It’ll be interesting to see what happens once that broader low level spin leaves FL later. There is plenty of vorticity for something to spin up. Whether it becomes tropical remains to be seen. 

giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91anwica42oyzexmu6zi
 

2NPiTUr.jpeg
 

Meanwhile, the Bay of Campeche signal has become stronger as the ensembles try to keep the region in a lower shear environment when development becomes possible in the coming days. That area has a good shot of triggering TC genesis imo, and now has a NHC lemon. 

UbzmKY9.png
 

GYBxzXd.png
 

It’s not really there except occasionally on long range op runs, but I still wouldn’t sleep on the third area I highlighted in the western Atlantic ~10-12 days from now either. Euro toyed with that last night again. 

If folks are wondering why so much is getting posted…this is a really active signal for June. I’d be surprised if we didn’t get at least 1 NS out of this window. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro and GFS were back to a more aggressive development signal last night and this morning as well. Shear still looks really tough, but even on the guidance you can see the low organizing some as it heads off NE. 

I think 90L overperformed yesterday in spinning up a concise mesolow with persistent but sheared deep convection. It’ll be interesting to see what happens once that broader low level spin leaves FL later. There is plenty of vorticity for something to spin up. Whether it becomes tropical remains to be seen. 

giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91anwica42oyzexmu6zi
 

2NPiTUr.jpeg
 

Meanwhile, the Bay of Campeche signal has become stronger as the ensembles try to keep the region in a lower shear environment when development becomes possible in the coming days. That area has a good shot of triggering TC genesis imo, and now has a NHC lemon. 

UbzmKY9.png
 

GYBxzXd.png
 

It’s not really there except occasionally on long range op runs, but I still wouldn’t sleep on the third area I highlighted in the western Atlantic ~10-12 days from now either. Euro toyed with that last night again. 

If folks are wondering why so much is getting posted…this is a really active signal for June. I’d be surprised if we didn’t get at least 1 NS out of this window. 

Just based on the models, the soon to be SEUSA will probably at least get numbered, even if it isn't named.  20% 7 day seems low to me.  IMBY, the forecast low down in the BoC is forecast to be more organized, which is reducing model QPF.  More rain would delay, and perhaps reduce, the heat range in SETX, which is good, but at a job interview near TX 99 and I-69/US 59, there was standing water on the lawns, so missing out on what had been forecast to be between 1-2 inches per day for 3 days, with 4 inch totals, wouldn't be a bad thing.  Standing water is a recipe for mosquitoes.  And tadpoles, when I worked in Houston, a puddle had tadpoles in it, which fit in wonderfully in discussing biotic and abiotic parts of an ecosystem which we were learning.  Did the tadpoles make it to the toad stage before the puddle dried, I'm not sure.

 

6Z Euro ensembles weaken the ridge from prior runs, I could see the system which now has a lot of model support, making it as far N as the Rio Bravo del Norte (Spanish for Rio Grande), Dolly in 2008 rained on Houston with a landfall on the border. cc: @Stx_Thunder

ECENS-6Z_Tamaulipas Threat.png

eps_z500_vort_us_25.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just based on the models, the soon to be SEUSA will probably at least get numbered, even if it isn't named.  20% 7 day seems low to me.  IMBY, the forecast low down in the BoC is forecast to be more organized, which is reducing model QPF.  More rain would delay, and perhaps reduce, the heat range in SETX, which is good, but at a job interview near TX 99 and I-69/US 59, there was standing water on the lawns, so missing out on what had been forecast to be between 1-2 inches per day for 3 days, with 4 inch totals, wouldn't be a bad thing.  Standing water is a recipe for mosquitoes.  And tadpoles, when I worked in Houston, a puddle had tadpoles in it, which fit in wonderfully in discussing biotic and abiotic parts of an ecosystem which we were learning.  Did the tadpoles make it to the toad stage before the puddle dried, I'm not sure.

 

6Z Euro ensembles weaken the ridge from prior runs, I could see the system which now has a lot of model support, making it as far N as the Rio Bravo del Norte (Spanish for Rio Grande), Dolly in 2008 rained on Houston with a landfall on the border. cc: @Stx_Thunder

ECENS-6Z_Tamaulipas Threat.png

eps_z500_vort_us_25.png

90L is developed pretty aggressively again on the 12z Euro. Even our friends in Atlantic Canada may need to watch for an unusually strong post-tropical (if it even develops) system based on this track.

As for the BoC, I guess we’ll see. The ridge next week is absolutely massive, but any weakening could certainly allow for moisture further north. Mexico desperately needs the rain. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET: 990 mb Newfoundland Sunday:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 30.2N  77.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 13.06.2024   36  30.0N  77.4W     1009            39
    0000UTC 14.06.2024   48  31.7N  75.9W     1008            33
    1200UTC 14.06.2024   60  32.9N  73.8W     1007            36
    0000UTC 15.06.2024   72  34.5N  71.8W     1005            32
    1200UTC 15.06.2024   84  37.6N  67.7W     1001            41
    0000UTC 16.06.2024   96  42.2N  61.6W      993            44
    1200UTC 16.06.2024  108  47.8N  55.0W      990            37
    0000UTC 17.06.2024  120  53.6N  51.5W      982            42
    1200UTC 17.06.2024  132              POST-TROPICAL

12Z UKMET: big hit on Canada again

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L        ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N  83.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 12.06.2024    0  28.0N  83.0W     1011            23
    0000UTC 13.06.2024   12  29.4N  79.3W     1008            37
    1200UTC 13.06.2024   24  30.9N  77.4W     1005            39
    0000UTC 14.06.2024   36  31.5N  76.6W     1004            38
    1200UTC 14.06.2024   48  33.3N  75.0W     1001            38
    0000UTC 15.06.2024   60  35.6N  72.4W      995            42
    1200UTC 15.06.2024   72  39.1N  68.2W      990            51
    0000UTC 16.06.2024   84  43.7N  62.3W      983            49
    1200UTC 16.06.2024   96  48.2N  55.8W      986            45
    0000UTC 17.06.2024  108  54.2N  52.3W      986            41
    1200UTC 17.06.2024  120              POST-TROPICAL
Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET: big hit on Canada again

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L        ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N  83.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 12.06.2024    0  28.0N  83.0W     1011            23
    0000UTC 13.06.2024   12  29.4N  79.3W     1008            37
    1200UTC 13.06.2024   24  30.9N  77.4W     1005            39
    0000UTC 14.06.2024   36  31.5N  76.6W     1004            38
    1200UTC 14.06.2024   48  33.3N  75.0W     1001            38
    0000UTC 15.06.2024   60  35.6N  72.4W      995            42
    1200UTC 15.06.2024   72  39.1N  68.2W      990            51
    0000UTC 16.06.2024   84  43.7N  62.3W      983            49
    1200UTC 16.06.2024   96  48.2N  55.8W      986            45
    0000UTC 17.06.2024  108  54.2N  52.3W      986            41
    1200UTC 17.06.2024  120              POST-TROPICAL

Euro was surprisingly strong too although almost certainly post tropical by then. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET: big hit on Canada again

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L        ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N  83.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 12.06.2024    0  28.0N  83.0W     1011            23
    0000UTC 13.06.2024   12  29.4N  79.3W     1008            37
    1200UTC 13.06.2024   24  30.9N  77.4W     1005            39
    0000UTC 14.06.2024   36  31.5N  76.6W     1004            38
    1200UTC 14.06.2024   48  33.3N  75.0W     1001            38
    0000UTC 15.06.2024   60  35.6N  72.4W      995            42
    1200UTC 15.06.2024   72  39.1N  68.2W      990            51
    0000UTC 16.06.2024   84  43.7N  62.3W      983            49
    1200UTC 16.06.2024   96  48.2N  55.8W      986            45
    0000UTC 17.06.2024  108  54.2N  52.3W      986            41
    1200UTC 17.06.2024  120              POST-TROPICAL

I assume it is a resolution issue w/ the UKMET, the model can't see winds of 50 knots w/ low 980s pressure.  A chart of dropsonde pressure and max wind in the Atlantic Basin (one was in the Gulf) from  Brown, Franklin and Landsea 2006 analyzing recon data from 1998 to 2005 (they note the abundance of data from 2005) suggests in the Gulf, 980 mb would have, on average, about 77.7 knots max winds.  They found little difference in the correlation between sub-basins in the Atlantic, there was a difference at higher latitudes.  There is wider difference from the empirical best fit South of 25N: Vm= 10.205(1014.4-p) 0.5736   to the experimental data when pressures are lower and winds higher there is a greater spread from the recon data to the predicted value. Lower wind/pressure, ie, ~75 knots and 980 mb) would have a P/W relationship pressure with a smaller difference from predicted wind based on pressure and the max/min winds recorded by recon.

 

I do realize at higher latitudes with the wind field increasing and max winds decreasing, 77.7 knots would be too high a value  I suspect there aren't that many recon missions with GPS dropsondes above 40 degrees N to develop a relationship. (I couldn't find anything on Google Scholar, but I don't have the experience wording searches as compared to Google  But I'd still think the UK winds for the pressures is low.  High latitude relation of North of 25N: Vm= 8.636(1015-p) 0.5989 is given, Desmos says that is 73 knots.  >40 degrees may not work for a relationship for storms  >25N

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I assume it is a resolution issue w/ the UKMET, the model can't see winds of 50 knots w/ low 980s pressure.  A chart of dropsonde pressure and max wind in the Atlantic Basin (one was in the Gulf) from  Brown, Franklin and Landsea 2006 analyzing recon data from 1998 to 2005 (they note the abundance of data from 2005) suggests in the Gulf, 980 mb would have, on average, about 77.7 knots max winds.  They found little difference in the correlation between sub-basins in the Atlantic, there was a difference at higher latitudes.  There is wider difference from the empirical best fit South of 25N: Vm= 10.205(1014.4-p) 0.5736   to the experimental data when pressures are lower and winds higher there is a greater spread from the recon data to the predicted value. Lower wind/pressure, ie, ~75 knots and 980 mb) would have a P/W relationship pressure with a smaller difference from predicted wind based on pressure and the max/min winds recorded by recon.

 

I do realize at higher latitudes with the wind field increasing and max winds decreasing, 77.7 knots would be too high a value  I suspect there aren't that many recon missions with GPS dropsondes above 40 degrees N to develop a relationship. (I couldn't find anything on Google Scholar, but I don't have the experience wording searches as compared to Google  But I'd still think the UK winds for the pressures is low.  High latitude relation of North of 25N: Vm= 8.636(1015-p) 0.5989 is given, Desmos says that is 73 knots.  >40 degrees may not work for a relationship for storms  >25N

 The UKMET tends to be too low with winds. But OTOH as you mentioned, highest winds tend to be lower for same pressure due to spreading out as latitude increases.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After the 30% BoC lemon does whatever it is going to do, maybe even getting a name before moving into Mexico well S of the border, the GFS and Canadian seem to think more vorticity will come up 3 or 4 days later from the Caribbean and form a Gulf low.

 

GFS has the non-lemonized disturbance hitting New Orleans as a solid tropical storm beyond credible range/resolution truncation.  Canadian at 240 hours has a broad disorganized low over the BoC but with a break between the ridges that would take anything organized towards the Central Gulf.  Not putting too much stock in models 10 days and beyond, but I do think it is interesting if the weak system forecast to develop in the BoC is followed a few days later with another Gulf low of Caribbean origin.  Even the 12Z Euro-AI suggests another Gulf low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I've mentioned how this is likely an extended window for TC genesis, but I am impressed by just how many opportunities there may be for something to spin up. The monsoon gyre/CAG is giving models fits. Of course, not everything will develop, but even if we get 2 NS that'd put us about a month ahead of the normal season pace. 

1. Invest 90L
Models still differ on whether this develops/develops as a TC, but there is a legitimate window however narrow. 

giphy.gif

Now offshore, there's convection that's still getting sheared a lot from whatever "center' there is. Being over warm waters and the Gulf Stream eventually could help this organize enough into a TC, but it will need to tighten some. Persistent convection should help. 

iw2snpu.png

DSQNH8D.png

 

2. BoC Area of Interest
This is another legitimate candidate for a NS. The signal remains strong across guidance on some type of development in the next week. Unlike 90L, which is fighting time and a hostile environment, if there is enough vorticity in the BoC the environment should be much more favorable with reduced shear, high SSTs, and the concave nature of the BoC promoting spin. 

SbtydP4.png

 

IGDabvu.png

Wf6oVNe.png

IdNLzTb.png


3. Secondary Gulf Potential
Not sure how else to put this, but with so much spin in the Gulf/western Caribbean, the guidance is possibly identifying a separate area that develops out of the broader gyre that is separate from whatever happens in the BoC. 

This is a current 850mb vorticity plot, but that ribbon of vorticity over the CAG region has been persistent and is likely to continue. From that, anything can pop, especially if we see a tropical wave introduced eventually. 

bfPZheo.png

 

The GEFS are a little hot, but with the Euro starting to show potential it's worth watching. 

Fo87tS1.png

n0Qh8hP.png

 

4. SW Atlantic
I'm still stuck on this area haha. There seems to be a signal that something gets trapped under the massive ridge next week, and as it gets steered west it has a chance to organize. Worth nothing more than a single casual eye right now. 

giphy.gif

 

By June standards, this is really active. I'd say the first two have a legitimate shot, while we need another day or two to see how real the signal for #3 is, and #4 is just long range speculation at this time. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Will there be enough there for NHC not to cancel the flight tomorrow, and will be the system be organized enough for a number or name?

 

447 
NOUS42 KNHC 121550
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1150 AM EDT WED 12 JUNE 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUNE 2024
         TCPOD NUMBER.....24-012

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC - AL90)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
       A. 13/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
       C. 13/1545Z
       D. 31.8N 76.2W
       E. 13/1730Z TO 13/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST
       H. WRA ACTIVATION

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION NEAR
       34.0N 73.0W FOR 14/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For Invest 90L, 0Z had actually dropped it but 12Z UKMET got it back:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L        ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N  78.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 13.06.2024    0  30.2N  78.1W     1011            27
    0000UTC 14.06.2024   12  31.9N  77.8W     1009            31
    1200UTC 14.06.2024   24  32.2N  76.6W     1007            35
    0000UTC 15.06.2024   36  36.6N  72.2W     1005            40
    1200UTC 15.06.2024   48  39.1N  68.7W     1000            42
    0000UTC 16.06.2024   60  45.2N  60.3W      998            37
    1200UTC 16.06.2024   72  52.2N  53.2W      993            32
    0000UTC 17.06.2024   84              POST-TROPICAL
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 For Bay of Campeche next week, 12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 19.7N  93.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 20.06.2024  168  19.9N  93.1W     1002            34
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

0Z UKMET has nothing (TCwise) in the Gulf but still has the one offshore the E coast though it is weaker than what the 12Z had:

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.06.2024

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 36.5N  70.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 15.06.2024   36  37.8N  68.9W     1007            38
    0000UTC 16.06.2024   48  40.5N  63.0W     1005            39
    1200UTC 16.06.2024   60  45.7N  54.6W     1003            34
    0000UTC 17.06.2024   72              CEASED TRACKING
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET has nothing (TCwise) in the Gulf but still has the one offshore the E coast though it is weaker than what the 12Z had:

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.06.2024

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 36.5N  70.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 15.06.2024   36  37.8N  68.9W     1007            38
    0000UTC 16.06.2024   48  40.5N  63.0W     1005            39
    1200UTC 16.06.2024   60  45.7N  54.6W     1003            34
    0000UTC 17.06.2024   72              CEASED TRACKING

12Z UKMET is similar with 90L and with nothing in the GOM TCGwise fwiw.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just glancing at the 12Z models, I'm not sure which vorticity the models show rotating around the CAG will actually develop.  Models showing too different lows from the CAG 4 or 5 days apart doesn't seem real to me.  CMC showing a 992 landfall deep in the BoC followed by another low moving through the Yucatan Channel 60 hours later, that just isn't happening.

 

GFS has about an extra day between that, not sure how an EPAC low landfalling in Honduras or El Salvador and then strengthening over land as it crosses Guatemala and Mexico as the GFS shows would happen.  The second, more significant low, entering the Gulf closer to 90W, would be a Central or E Gulf threat in 8 or 10 days.  Anything at 8 to 10 days is subject to change.  Things at 5-7 days are subject to change, I'm not sure at all the BoC 50% orange low develops at all.

Low_1.png

Low_2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

A see the completely exposed and somewhat elliptical low SE of Hatteras.  I don't think recon will fly today.

ce09dc61-9463-4558-89d0-cca6062c5aa9.jpg

Recon is canceled today, and despite a pretty well defined low level circulation there needs to be more convection (I know you know this). Shear is dropping and it’s over the Gulf Stream, so while the window for genesis is closing it’s still open for now. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The fact the low in the BoC stays so weak/disorganized on the Euro and GFS maximizes convergence and PW IMBY.  Similar >2.5" PW on the 2 models, but GFS 50 knot 850 flow compared to 30 knots on the Euro is the difference between over a foot in HOU area and about a third of that on the Euro.  Maps posted on Texas thread in Western subforum.  WPC 7 day is >5 inches for the coastal counties/parishes TX/LA, with heaviest rain in Louisiana.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah whatever happens in the BoC it looks like the firehose moves from Florida to the rest of the Gulf. Really unsure what’ll develop with this CAG pattern. Models struggled with 90L even in the short range and this Gulf/Caribbean setup is more complex.  

Still think the BoC, secondary Gulf development, and SW Atlantic (Euro operational wants to sharpen something near the coast) are the areas to watch.

acTseIz.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting. Not only does the 12z GFS bring a weak system (moisture laden) further north from the BoC, it now latches onto the idea of the SW Atlantic potential I’ve been babbling about. Quite a short range change too for those that have been following. 

That’d be of interest, @GaWx

06z Euro

giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe911c9ch4feug67nwpyna
 

12z GFS
giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91vxlw3e1svboa70pr90

It’s an odd look, and certainly no guarantee of anything even with the models trying to carve out a signal inside really 2.5-3 days given what we just saw with 90L, but getting something to pop from the tail end of a trough wouldn’t be a novel way to get TC genesis. 

 

AbecyHh.png

 

PeRpF50.png


This is obviously predicated on the absurd amount of shear being gone, but both models seem to have a relaxation of some sort around this time. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro is fairly aggressive too but doesn’t quite close the SW Atlantic disturbance off fully. Takes it south over Florida then back over the Gulf and into Louisiana as the massive ridge flexes next week. Weak system verbatim but interesting nonetheless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting to see the models get slightly more bullish with every run for the Atlantic system. 12z euro brings it right over my house so I'll be watching that...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Interesting. Not only does the 12z GFS bring a weak system (moisture laden) further north from the BoC, it now latches onto the idea of the SW Atlantic potential I’ve been babbling about. Quite a short range change too for those that have been following. 

That’d be of interest, @GaWx

06z Euro

giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe911c9ch4feug67nwpyna
 

12z GFS
giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91vxlw3e1svboa70pr90

It’s an odd look, and certainly no guarantee of anything even with the models trying to carve out a signal inside really 2.5-3 days given what we just saw with 90L, but getting something to pop from the tail end of a trough wouldn’t be a novel way to get TC genesis. 

 

AbecyHh.png

 

PeRpF50.png


This is obviously predicated on the absurd amount of shear being gone, but both models seem to have a relaxation of some sort around this time. 

 I’ll be watching. But despite what the 12Z GFS and 5 of the GEFS members show, I’m not worried about it at this point. The consensus of the 12Z GFS, Euro, UKMET (see below) has a TC somewhere along the SE coast late next week.

 

 History of TC landfalls from the E or SE to SE US May-June:

- 1873 minimal TS GA/FL border 6/2

tracks-at-1873.png


- 1909 low end TS Ft. Lauderdale 6/28

tracks-at-1909.png


- 1972: minimal STS Alpha Brunswick 5/27

tracks-at-1972.png
 

- 1984 TD 1 St. Augustine 6/13

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=1984_Atlantic_hurricane_season&diffonly=true#/media/File%3A1-L_1984_track.png


- 2012 high end TS Beryl Jacksonville 5/28

tracks-at-2012.png
 

- 2016: TD Bonnie Isle of Palms, SC 5/29

tracks-at-2016.png

-2020 50 mph TS Bertha Isle of Palms, SC 5/27
tracks-at-2020.png
 

*Edit I somehow missed this one:

-2021: 40 mph TS Danny Pritchard’s Island 6/28

tracks-at-2021.png
———————————-

12Z UKMET has TD at 150 just off GA that moves NNE to Tybee/lower SC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.06.2024

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N  81.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 22.06.2024  156  31.9N  80.9W     1012            24
    1200UTC 22.06.2024  168  33.8N  80.3W     1014            25
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’ll be watching. But despite what the 12Z GFS and 5 of the GEFS members show, I’m not worried about it at this point. The consensus of the 12Z GFS, Euro, UKMET (see below) has a TC somewhere along the SE coast late next week.

 

 History of TC landfalls from the E or SE to SE US May-June:

- 1873 minimal TS GA/FL border 6/2

tracks-at-1873.png


- 1909 low end TS Ft. Lauderdale 6/28

tracks-at-1909.png


- 1972: minimal STS Alpha Brunswick 5/27

tracks-at-1972.png
 

- 1984 TD 1 St. Augustine 6/13

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=1984_Atlantic_hurricane_season&diffonly=true#/media/File%3A1-L_1984_track.png


- 2012 high end TS Beryl Jacksonville 5/28

tracks-at-2012.png
 

- 2016: TD Bonnie Isle of Palms, SC 5/29

tracks-at-2016.png

-2020 50 mph TS Bertha Isle of Palms, SC 5/27
tracks-at-2020.png
———————————-

12Z UKMET has TD at 150 just off GA that moves NNE to Tybee/lower SC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.06.2024

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N  81.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 22.06.2024  156  31.9N  80.9W     1012            24
    1200UTC 22.06.2024  168  33.8N  80.3W     1014            25

My very first thought on that run was “well this is about the least favored spot climatologically” 

Agree it’s nothing to be concerned with yet—especially given how the models struggled at short range with 90L. Just an interesting little signal. I think it’s worth a 10-20% lemon at this stage but we’ll see. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There it is

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, 
and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week 
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. 
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are 
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.  
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash 
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week 
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas.  Some slow 
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system 
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...