WxWatcher007 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 6 hours ago, GaWx said: 0Z UKMET: 990 mb Newfoundland Sunday: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 30.2N 77.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 13.06.2024 36 30.0N 77.4W 1009 39 0000UTC 14.06.2024 48 31.7N 75.9W 1008 33 1200UTC 14.06.2024 60 32.9N 73.8W 1007 36 0000UTC 15.06.2024 72 34.5N 71.8W 1005 32 1200UTC 15.06.2024 84 37.6N 67.7W 1001 41 0000UTC 16.06.2024 96 42.2N 61.6W 993 44 1200UTC 16.06.2024 108 47.8N 55.0W 990 37 0000UTC 17.06.2024 120 53.6N 51.5W 982 42 1200UTC 17.06.2024 132 POST-TROPICAL Euro and GFS were back to a more aggressive development signal last night and this morning as well. Shear still looks really tough, but even on the guidance you can see the low organizing some as it heads off NE. I think 90L overperformed yesterday in spinning up a concise mesolow with persistent but sheared deep convection. It’ll be interesting to see what happens once that broader low level spin leaves FL later. There is plenty of vorticity for something to spin up. Whether it becomes tropical remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the Bay of Campeche signal has become stronger as the ensembles try to keep the region in a lower shear environment when development becomes possible in the coming days. That area has a good shot of triggering TC genesis imo, and now has a NHC lemon. It’s not really there except occasionally on long range op runs, but I still wouldn’t sleep on the third area I highlighted in the western Atlantic ~10-12 days from now either. Euro toyed with that last night again. If folks are wondering why so much is getting posted…this is a really active signal for June. I’d be surprised if we didn’t get at least 1 NS out of this window. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro and GFS were back to a more aggressive development signal last night and this morning as well. Shear still looks really tough, but even on the guidance you can see the low organizing some as it heads off NE. I think 90L overperformed yesterday in spinning up a concise mesolow with persistent but sheared deep convection. It’ll be interesting to see what happens once that broader low level spin leaves FL later. There is plenty of vorticity for something to spin up. Whether it becomes tropical remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the Bay of Campeche signal has become stronger as the ensembles try to keep the region in a lower shear environment when development becomes possible in the coming days. That area has a good shot of triggering TC genesis imo, and now has a NHC lemon. It’s not really there except occasionally on long range op runs, but I still wouldn’t sleep on the third area I highlighted in the western Atlantic ~10-12 days from now either. Euro toyed with that last night again. If folks are wondering why so much is getting posted…this is a really active signal for June. I’d be surprised if we didn’t get at least 1 NS out of this window. Just based on the models, the soon to be SEUSA will probably at least get numbered, even if it isn't named. 20% 7 day seems low to me. IMBY, the forecast low down in the BoC is forecast to be more organized, which is reducing model QPF. More rain would delay, and perhaps reduce, the heat range in SETX, which is good, but at a job interview near TX 99 and I-69/US 59, there was standing water on the lawns, so missing out on what had been forecast to be between 1-2 inches per day for 3 days, with 4 inch totals, wouldn't be a bad thing. Standing water is a recipe for mosquitoes. And tadpoles, when I worked in Houston, a puddle had tadpoles in it, which fit in wonderfully in discussing biotic and abiotic parts of an ecosystem which we were learning. Did the tadpoles make it to the toad stage before the puddle dried, I'm not sure. 6Z Euro ensembles weaken the ridge from prior runs, I could see the system which now has a lot of model support, making it as far N as the Rio Bravo del Norte (Spanish for Rio Grande), Dolly in 2008 rained on Houston with a landfall on the border. cc: @Stx_Thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Just based on the models, the soon to be SEUSA will probably at least get numbered, even if it isn't named. 20% 7 day seems low to me. IMBY, the forecast low down in the BoC is forecast to be more organized, which is reducing model QPF. More rain would delay, and perhaps reduce, the heat range in SETX, which is good, but at a job interview near TX 99 and I-69/US 59, there was standing water on the lawns, so missing out on what had been forecast to be between 1-2 inches per day for 3 days, with 4 inch totals, wouldn't be a bad thing. Standing water is a recipe for mosquitoes. And tadpoles, when I worked in Houston, a puddle had tadpoles in it, which fit in wonderfully in discussing biotic and abiotic parts of an ecosystem which we were learning. Did the tadpoles make it to the toad stage before the puddle dried, I'm not sure. 6Z Euro ensembles weaken the ridge from prior runs, I could see the system which now has a lot of model support, making it as far N as the Rio Bravo del Norte (Spanish for Rio Grande), Dolly in 2008 rained on Houston with a landfall on the border. cc: @Stx_Thunder 90L is developed pretty aggressively again on the 12z Euro. Even our friends in Atlantic Canada may need to watch for an unusually strong post-tropical (if it even develops) system based on this track. As for the BoC, I guess we’ll see. The ridge next week is absolutely massive, but any weakening could certainly allow for moisture further north. Mexico desperately needs the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 12 hours ago, GaWx said: 0Z UKMET: 990 mb Newfoundland Sunday: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 30.2N 77.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 13.06.2024 36 30.0N 77.4W 1009 39 0000UTC 14.06.2024 48 31.7N 75.9W 1008 33 1200UTC 14.06.2024 60 32.9N 73.8W 1007 36 0000UTC 15.06.2024 72 34.5N 71.8W 1005 32 1200UTC 15.06.2024 84 37.6N 67.7W 1001 41 0000UTC 16.06.2024 96 42.2N 61.6W 993 44 1200UTC 16.06.2024 108 47.8N 55.0W 990 37 0000UTC 17.06.2024 120 53.6N 51.5W 982 42 1200UTC 17.06.2024 132 POST-TROPICAL 12Z UKMET: big hit on Canada again TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 83.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.06.2024 0 28.0N 83.0W 1011 23 0000UTC 13.06.2024 12 29.4N 79.3W 1008 37 1200UTC 13.06.2024 24 30.9N 77.4W 1005 39 0000UTC 14.06.2024 36 31.5N 76.6W 1004 38 1200UTC 14.06.2024 48 33.3N 75.0W 1001 38 0000UTC 15.06.2024 60 35.6N 72.4W 995 42 1200UTC 15.06.2024 72 39.1N 68.2W 990 51 0000UTC 16.06.2024 84 43.7N 62.3W 983 49 1200UTC 16.06.2024 96 48.2N 55.8W 986 45 0000UTC 17.06.2024 108 54.2N 52.3W 986 41 1200UTC 17.06.2024 120 POST-TROPICAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 55 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET: big hit on Canada again TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 83.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.06.2024 0 28.0N 83.0W 1011 23 0000UTC 13.06.2024 12 29.4N 79.3W 1008 37 1200UTC 13.06.2024 24 30.9N 77.4W 1005 39 0000UTC 14.06.2024 36 31.5N 76.6W 1004 38 1200UTC 14.06.2024 48 33.3N 75.0W 1001 38 0000UTC 15.06.2024 60 35.6N 72.4W 995 42 1200UTC 15.06.2024 72 39.1N 68.2W 990 51 0000UTC 16.06.2024 84 43.7N 62.3W 983 49 1200UTC 16.06.2024 96 48.2N 55.8W 986 45 0000UTC 17.06.2024 108 54.2N 52.3W 986 41 1200UTC 17.06.2024 120 POST-TROPICAL Euro was surprisingly strong too although almost certainly post tropical by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 47 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET: big hit on Canada again TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 83.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.06.2024 0 28.0N 83.0W 1011 23 0000UTC 13.06.2024 12 29.4N 79.3W 1008 37 1200UTC 13.06.2024 24 30.9N 77.4W 1005 39 0000UTC 14.06.2024 36 31.5N 76.6W 1004 38 1200UTC 14.06.2024 48 33.3N 75.0W 1001 38 0000UTC 15.06.2024 60 35.6N 72.4W 995 42 1200UTC 15.06.2024 72 39.1N 68.2W 990 51 0000UTC 16.06.2024 84 43.7N 62.3W 983 49 1200UTC 16.06.2024 96 48.2N 55.8W 986 45 0000UTC 17.06.2024 108 54.2N 52.3W 986 41 1200UTC 17.06.2024 120 POST-TROPICAL I assume it is a resolution issue w/ the UKMET, the model can't see winds of 50 knots w/ low 980s pressure. A chart of dropsonde pressure and max wind in the Atlantic Basin (one was in the Gulf) from Brown, Franklin and Landsea 2006 analyzing recon data from 1998 to 2005 (they note the abundance of data from 2005) suggests in the Gulf, 980 mb would have, on average, about 77.7 knots max winds. They found little difference in the correlation between sub-basins in the Atlantic, there was a difference at higher latitudes. There is wider difference from the empirical best fit South of 25N: Vm= 10.205(1014.4-p) 0.5736 to the experimental data when pressures are lower and winds higher there is a greater spread from the recon data to the predicted value. Lower wind/pressure, ie, ~75 knots and 980 mb) would have a P/W relationship pressure with a smaller difference from predicted wind based on pressure and the max/min winds recorded by recon. I do realize at higher latitudes with the wind field increasing and max winds decreasing, 77.7 knots would be too high a value I suspect there aren't that many recon missions with GPS dropsondes above 40 degrees N to develop a relationship. (I couldn't find anything on Google Scholar, but I don't have the experience wording searches as compared to Google But I'd still think the UK winds for the pressures is low. High latitude relation of North of 25N: Vm= 8.636(1015-p) 0.5989 is given, Desmos says that is 73 knots. >40 degrees may not work for a relationship for storms >25N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro was surprisingly strong too although almost certainly post tropical by then. Newfoundland would have issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 35 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I assume it is a resolution issue w/ the UKMET, the model can't see winds of 50 knots w/ low 980s pressure. A chart of dropsonde pressure and max wind in the Atlantic Basin (one was in the Gulf) from Brown, Franklin and Landsea 2006 analyzing recon data from 1998 to 2005 (they note the abundance of data from 2005) suggests in the Gulf, 980 mb would have, on average, about 77.7 knots max winds. They found little difference in the correlation between sub-basins in the Atlantic, there was a difference at higher latitudes. There is wider difference from the empirical best fit South of 25N: Vm= 10.205(1014.4-p) 0.5736 to the experimental data when pressures are lower and winds higher there is a greater spread from the recon data to the predicted value. Lower wind/pressure, ie, ~75 knots and 980 mb) would have a P/W relationship pressure with a smaller difference from predicted wind based on pressure and the max/min winds recorded by recon. I do realize at higher latitudes with the wind field increasing and max winds decreasing, 77.7 knots would be too high a value I suspect there aren't that many recon missions with GPS dropsondes above 40 degrees N to develop a relationship. (I couldn't find anything on Google Scholar, but I don't have the experience wording searches as compared to Google But I'd still think the UK winds for the pressures is low. High latitude relation of North of 25N: Vm= 8.636(1015-p) 0.5989 is given, Desmos says that is 73 knots. >40 degrees may not work for a relationship for storms >25N The UKMET tends to be too low with winds. But OTOH as you mentioned, highest winds tend to be lower for same pressure due to spreading out as latitude increases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 After the 30% BoC lemon does whatever it is going to do, maybe even getting a name before moving into Mexico well S of the border, the GFS and Canadian seem to think more vorticity will come up 3 or 4 days later from the Caribbean and form a Gulf low. GFS has the non-lemonized disturbance hitting New Orleans as a solid tropical storm beyond credible range/resolution truncation. Canadian at 240 hours has a broad disorganized low over the BoC but with a break between the ridges that would take anything organized towards the Central Gulf. Not putting too much stock in models 10 days and beyond, but I do think it is interesting if the weak system forecast to develop in the BoC is followed a few days later with another Gulf low of Caribbean origin. Even the 12Z Euro-AI suggests another Gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 I know I've mentioned how this is likely an extended window for TC genesis, but I am impressed by just how many opportunities there may be for something to spin up. The monsoon gyre/CAG is giving models fits. Of course, not everything will develop, but even if we get 2 NS that'd put us about a month ahead of the normal season pace. 1. Invest 90L Models still differ on whether this develops/develops as a TC, but there is a legitimate window however narrow. Now offshore, there's convection that's still getting sheared a lot from whatever "center' there is. Being over warm waters and the Gulf Stream eventually could help this organize enough into a TC, but it will need to tighten some. Persistent convection should help. 2. BoC Area of Interest This is another legitimate candidate for a NS. The signal remains strong across guidance on some type of development in the next week. Unlike 90L, which is fighting time and a hostile environment, if there is enough vorticity in the BoC the environment should be much more favorable with reduced shear, high SSTs, and the concave nature of the BoC promoting spin. 3. Secondary Gulf Potential Not sure how else to put this, but with so much spin in the Gulf/western Caribbean, the guidance is possibly identifying a separate area that develops out of the broader gyre that is separate from whatever happens in the BoC. This is a current 850mb vorticity plot, but that ribbon of vorticity over the CAG region has been persistent and is likely to continue. From that, anything can pop, especially if we see a tropical wave introduced eventually. The GEFS are a little hot, but with the Euro starting to show potential it's worth watching. 4. SW Atlantic I'm still stuck on this area haha. There seems to be a signal that something gets trapped under the massive ridge next week, and as it gets steered west it has a chance to organize. Worth nothing more than a single casual eye right now. By June standards, this is really active. I'd say the first two have a legitimate shot, while we need another day or two to see how real the signal for #3 is, and #4 is just long range speculation at this time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Euro pretty aggressive with 90L and the BoC potential. Has 90L a TC tomorrow and develops a quick hitter in the BoC a few days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Will there be enough there for NHC not to cancel the flight tomorrow, and will be the system be organized enough for a number or name? 447 NOUS42 KNHC 121550 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1150 AM EDT WED 12 JUNE 2024 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUNE 2024 TCPOD NUMBER.....24-012 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC - AL90) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 A. 13/1800Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 13/1545Z D. 31.8N 76.2W E. 13/1730Z TO 13/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST H. WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION NEAR 34.0N 73.0W FOR 14/1800Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 For Invest 90L, 0Z had actually dropped it but 12Z UKMET got it back: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 78.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 13.06.2024 0 30.2N 78.1W 1011 27 0000UTC 14.06.2024 12 31.9N 77.8W 1009 31 1200UTC 14.06.2024 24 32.2N 76.6W 1007 35 0000UTC 15.06.2024 36 36.6N 72.2W 1005 40 1200UTC 15.06.2024 48 39.1N 68.7W 1000 42 0000UTC 16.06.2024 60 45.2N 60.3W 998 37 1200UTC 16.06.2024 72 52.2N 53.2W 993 32 0000UTC 17.06.2024 84 POST-TROPICAL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 For Bay of Campeche next week, 12Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 19.7N 93.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.06.2024 168 19.9N 93.1W 1002 34 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 0Z UKMET has nothing (TCwise) in the Gulf but still has the one offshore the E coast though it is weaker than what the 12Z had: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.06.2024 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 36.5N 70.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.06.2024 36 37.8N 68.9W 1007 38 0000UTC 16.06.2024 48 40.5N 63.0W 1005 39 1200UTC 16.06.2024 60 45.7N 54.6W 1003 34 0000UTC 17.06.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 A see the completely exposed and somewhat elliptical low SE of Hatteras. I don't think recon will fly today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 11 hours ago, GaWx said: 0Z UKMET has nothing (TCwise) in the Gulf but still has the one offshore the E coast though it is weaker than what the 12Z had: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.06.2024 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 36.5N 70.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.06.2024 36 37.8N 68.9W 1007 38 0000UTC 16.06.2024 48 40.5N 63.0W 1005 39 1200UTC 16.06.2024 60 45.7N 54.6W 1003 34 0000UTC 17.06.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING 12Z UKMET is similar with 90L and with nothing in the GOM TCGwise fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Just glancing at the 12Z models, I'm not sure which vorticity the models show rotating around the CAG will actually develop. Models showing too different lows from the CAG 4 or 5 days apart doesn't seem real to me. CMC showing a 992 landfall deep in the BoC followed by another low moving through the Yucatan Channel 60 hours later, that just isn't happening. GFS has about an extra day between that, not sure how an EPAC low landfalling in Honduras or El Salvador and then strengthening over land as it crosses Guatemala and Mexico as the GFS shows would happen. The second, more significant low, entering the Gulf closer to 90W, would be a Central or E Gulf threat in 8 or 10 days. Anything at 8 to 10 days is subject to change. Things at 5-7 days are subject to change, I'm not sure at all the BoC 50% orange low develops at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: A see the completely exposed and somewhat elliptical low SE of Hatteras. I don't think recon will fly today. Recon is canceled today, and despite a pretty well defined low level circulation there needs to be more convection (I know you know this). Shear is dropping and it’s over the Gulf Stream, so while the window for genesis is closing it’s still open for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Down to 10% odds for 90L Up to 50% odds for the BoC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 The fact the low in the BoC stays so weak/disorganized on the Euro and GFS maximizes convergence and PW IMBY. Similar >2.5" PW on the 2 models, but GFS 50 knot 850 flow compared to 30 knots on the Euro is the difference between over a foot in HOU area and about a third of that on the Euro. Maps posted on Texas thread in Western subforum. WPC 7 day is >5 inches for the coastal counties/parishes TX/LA, with heaviest rain in Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Yeah whatever happens in the BoC it looks like the firehose moves from Florida to the rest of the Gulf. Really unsure what’ll develop with this CAG pattern. Models struggled with 90L even in the short range and this Gulf/Caribbean setup is more complex. Still think the BoC, secondary Gulf development, and SW Atlantic (Euro operational wants to sharpen something near the coast) are the areas to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Interesting. Not only does the 12z GFS bring a weak system (moisture laden) further north from the BoC, it now latches onto the idea of the SW Atlantic potential I’ve been babbling about. Quite a short range change too for those that have been following. That’d be of interest, @GaWx 06z Euro 12z GFS It’s an odd look, and certainly no guarantee of anything even with the models trying to carve out a signal inside really 2.5-3 days given what we just saw with 90L, but getting something to pop from the tail end of a trough wouldn’t be a novel way to get TC genesis. This is obviously predicated on the absurd amount of shear being gone, but both models seem to have a relaxation of some sort around this time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 12z Euro is fairly aggressive too but doesn’t quite close the SW Atlantic disturbance off fully. Takes it south over Florida then back over the Gulf and into Louisiana as the massive ridge flexes next week. Weak system verbatim but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Interesting to see the models get slightly more bullish with every run for the Atlantic system. 12z euro brings it right over my house so I'll be watching that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 23 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Interesting. Not only does the 12z GFS bring a weak system (moisture laden) further north from the BoC, it now latches onto the idea of the SW Atlantic potential I’ve been babbling about. Quite a short range change too for those that have been following. That’d be of interest, @GaWx 06z Euro 12z GFS It’s an odd look, and certainly no guarantee of anything even with the models trying to carve out a signal inside really 2.5-3 days given what we just saw with 90L, but getting something to pop from the tail end of a trough wouldn’t be a novel way to get TC genesis. This is obviously predicated on the absurd amount of shear being gone, but both models seem to have a relaxation of some sort around this time. I’ll be watching. But despite what the 12Z GFS and 5 of the GEFS members show, I’m not worried about it at this point. The consensus of the 12Z GFS, Euro, UKMET (see below) has a TC somewhere along the SE coast late next week. History of TC landfalls from the E or SE to SE US May-June: - 1873 minimal TS GA/FL border 6/2 - 1909 low end TS Ft. Lauderdale 6/28 - 1972: minimal STS Alpha Brunswick 5/27 - 1984 TD 1 St. Augustine 6/13 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=1984_Atlantic_hurricane_season&diffonly=true#/media/File%3A1-L_1984_track.png - 2012 high end TS Beryl Jacksonville 5/28 - 2016: TD Bonnie Isle of Palms, SC 5/29 -2020 50 mph TS Bertha Isle of Palms, SC 5/27 *Edit I somehow missed this one: -2021: 40 mph TS Danny Pritchard’s Island 6/28 ———————————- 12Z UKMET has TD at 150 just off GA that moves NNE to Tybee/lower SC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.06.2024 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N 81.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.06.2024 156 31.9N 80.9W 1012 24 1200UTC 22.06.2024 168 33.8N 80.3W 1014 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’ll be watching. But despite what the 12Z GFS and 5 of the GEFS members show, I’m not worried about it at this point. The consensus of the 12Z GFS, Euro, UKMET (see below) has a TC somewhere along the SE coast late next week. History of TC landfalls from the E or SE to SE US May-June: - 1873 minimal TS GA/FL border 6/2 - 1909 low end TS Ft. Lauderdale 6/28 - 1972: minimal STS Alpha Brunswick 5/27 - 1984 TD 1 St. Augustine 6/13 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=1984_Atlantic_hurricane_season&diffonly=true#/media/File%3A1-L_1984_track.png - 2012 high end TS Beryl Jacksonville 5/28 - 2016: TD Bonnie Isle of Palms, SC 5/29 -2020 50 mph TS Bertha Isle of Palms, SC 5/27 ———————————- 12Z UKMET has TD at 150 just off GA that moves NNE to Tybee/lower SC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.06.2024 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N 81.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.06.2024 156 31.9N 80.9W 1012 24 1200UTC 22.06.2024 168 33.8N 80.3W 1014 25 My very first thought on that run was “well this is about the least favored spot climatologically” Agree it’s nothing to be concerned with yet—especially given how the models struggled at short range with 90L. Just an interesting little signal. I think it’s worth a 10-20% lemon at this stage but we’ll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 There it is Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Blake 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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