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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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On 5/26/2024 at 2:49 PM, CheeselandSkies said:

Yup...seems it's always in the close-in quick RI'ers that make the 130kt+ landfalls...Michael, Ida, Ian, etc. The 10-day basin crossing ACE machines like Ivan and Irma are less likely to be as intense at U.S. landfall (if they make one), even if multiple model runs and NHC advisories call for them to be. Hugo was actually something of an anomaly in that regard, remaining a 115-120kt (sources seem to vary) Cat. 4 at time of SC landfall.

IIRC the only thing that brought Irma back down a little was the eye skimming the mountains of Cuba.  If it tracked like 50 miles northeast at that spot, Miami could have been looking at a direct cat 5 hit.

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

IIRC the only thing that brought Irma back down a little was the eye skimming the mountains of Cuba.  If it tracked like 50 miles northeast at that spot, Miami could have been looking at a direct cat 5 hit.

True; but that's one of the variables that can come into play with a long-tracker.

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On 5/26/2024 at 2:49 PM, CheeselandSkies said:

Yup...seems it's always in the close-in quick RI'ers that make the 130kt+ landfalls...Michael, Ida, Ian, etc. The 10-day basin crossing ACE machines like Ivan and Irma are less likely to be as intense at U.S. landfall (if they make one), even if multiple model runs and NHC advisories call for them to be. Hugo was actually something of an anomaly in that regard, remaining a 115-120kt (sources seem to vary) Cat. 4 at time of SC landfall.

It actually got down to 105MPH upon reneging from PR, but the GS juiced it up prior to US LF.

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17 hours ago, cptcatz said:

IIRC the only thing that brought Irma back down a little was the eye skimming the mountains of Cuba.  If it tracked like 50 miles northeast at that spot, Miami could have been looking at a direct cat 5 hit.

Irma actually weakened to a 4 over the water before re-intensifying into a 5 before landfall in Cuba. As it moved over the Florida straights post-Cuba, it re-attained cat 4 status before making LF in the keys, but the core became disrupted due to dry air and modest NW wind shear. Watch a radar loop of the storm approaching the keys, it is evident when the core becomes disrupted. It was a half-a-cane from the keys to Naples LF. While the Cuban disruption certainly kept intensity down, it did have time to reorganize and reintensify to a 4 while on approach, but shear and drier air were more an issue as it approached the US as it did reform a beautiful symmetrical core after Cuba, briefly. If the storm had tracked further north towards Miami instead of brushing Cuba, it may have weakened from the same factors that weakened it dramatically from the keys to Naples. Or it may have missed those as it arrived before they did. My money is on Irma being a monster cat 5 if it had stayed north and hadn’t slowed down while hitting Cuba, but there were variables other than land at play that contributed to the weakening before US landfall 

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GFS has been hinting at potential development in the SW Caribbean for a little while. Might just be another phantom but interesting to watch over the next few days.

IMG_7503.gif

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The wave in question has vigorous convection which has been sporadic but persistent. Upper level environment is quite hostile to the Northwest (where it will be moving eventually), but it’s immediate environment seems favorable, though a little far to the South.

 

ASCAT pass 3 hours ago shows a defined wave axis and a broad swath of winds, but not much in the way of a closed circulation yet. Best chance for development IMO is the next couple of days or later when it exits into the SW Atlantic.

IMG_7506.gif

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6 hours ago, Prospero said:

Not tonight. This may have been the first wishcast of the 2024 season. Just we need the rain so bad around here in Tampa Bay.

Sometimes a tropical system will just "pop" up in a few hours surprising everybody in the Gulf. But not tonight. ;)

 

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48 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The GFS is developing things late next week/following weekend, but the GFS has a bias and develops too many TCs.  But some of the 0Z Euro ensembles are starting to show something as well.  I think based on SSTs in the neighboring basins, a Pacific system is favored, but not guaranteed.  

cdas-sflux_sst_epac_1.png

eps-ememb_lowlocs_watl_47.png

 

From pro met 57 from your area, he not surprisingly doesn't buy the GFS as it is on its own of the ops just like has been the case quite often:

"Here's a comparison of the 12Z GFS, Canadian, and Euro valid in 10 days, which is 12Z June 16. Which one is not like the others? This is happening in EVERY basin since the last GFS change (I'm not calling it an "upgrade")."

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZModels.JPG

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2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The GFS is developing things late next week/following weekend, but the GFS has a bias and develops too many TCs.  But some of the 0Z Euro ensembles are starting to show something as well.  I think based on SSTs in the neighboring basins, a Pacific system is favored, but not guaranteed.  

cdas-sflux_sst_epac_1.png

eps-ememb_lowlocs_watl_47.png

 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 

From pro met 57 from your area, he not surprisingly doesn't buy the GFS as it is on its own of the ops just like has been the case quite often:

"Here's a comparison of the 12Z GFS, Canadian, and Euro valid in 10 days, which is 12Z June 16. Which one is not like the others? This is happening in EVERY basin since the last GFS change (I'm not calling it an "upgrade")."

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZModels.JPG

I’ve been watching it the last few days and posted in the MA thread. It’s certainly true the GFS/GEFS tends to inject way too much vorticity into these basins that becomes a seed for phantom TC genesis. That may very well be the case here too.

That said, with the moisture setup in the Gulf next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of weak, lopsided, and broad low try to develop. The Euro has hinted at that too, albeit sporadically. 

Either way, a lot of rain possible in FL next week. 

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32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I still wouldn’t rule out some broad low trying to develop in the Gulf next week. Each model has a signal now to varying degrees. 

That doesn't look like the usual June mess. Looks like its environment may be more favorable than usual

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24 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

That doesn't look like the usual June mess. Looks like its environment may be more favorable than usual

I’d agree that was the case with some of the earlier GFS runs, but now verbatim it looks pretty broad and lopsided imo. That said, some of the models have tried to tighten it up some as it gets close to land, which isn’t surprising.

Also of interest is how the GFS and Canadian kind of try to eject multiple impulses from the CAG into the Gulf, which could lead to genesis off the SE coast. I’m not sure how real that is lol I’d be tempted to pop a lemon in the eastern Gulf honestly. I think the Gulf signal for something is real. 

FpxFIKB.png
4XJW6Ob.png

 

pUBDS16.png
1qLpOvd.png

 

s0JXNGm.png
 

 

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37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d agree that was the case with some of the earlier GFS runs, but now verbatim it looks pretty broad and lopsided imo. That said, some of the models have tried to tighten it up some as it gets close to land, which isn’t surprising.

Also of interest is how the GFS and Canadian kind of try to eject multiple impulses from the CAG into the Gulf, which could lead to genesis off the SE coast. I’m not sure how real that is lol I’d be tempted to pop a lemon in the eastern Gulf honestly. I think the Gulf signal for something is real. 

Snipped pictures

You're right, that looks more like the usual CAG mess. Hopefully it stays like that. Taking a look at upper level, it looks like the models show the subtropical jet bend and then align directionally with the storms direction as it moves north. I would assume that's why the models show the storm tighten up. This one won't be chugging dry air like a lot of June storms, so the jet needs to decapitate whatever moves up into the GoM.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_29.png

gfs_uv250_us_30.png

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I just looked at the EPS and GEFS ensembles and both are interesting. Especially the idea on both that the CAG leads to multiple opportunities for TC genesis.

hLAJFRm.png
 

48Mt3Bg.png
 

Different dates but as we’ve already seen the Euro is slow on the take with CAG.

gnoFZvU.png
F6cBCWh.png

Normally I’d balk at something like that but obviously the Caribbean is as favorable as it gets thermodynamically and we should have a favorable (for genesis) MJO/CCKW later in the month. But this warmth is obscene for early June. 

7iAsZh0.png
3MIcDuq.jpeg

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I just looked at the EPS and GEFS ensembles and both are interesting. Especially the idea on both that the CAG leads to multiple opportunities for TC genesis.

hLAJFRm.png
 

48Mt3Bg.png
 

Different dates but as we’ve already seen the Euro is slow on the take with CAG.

gnoFZvU.png
F6cBCWh.png

Normally I’d balk at something like that but obviously the Caribbean is as favorable as it gets thermodynamically and we should have a favorable (for genesis) MJO/CCKW later in the month. But this warmth is obscene for early June. 

7iAsZh0.png
3MIcDuq.jpeg

 Note that the far EPAC MDR has a decent sized area near 31C with no area anywhere near that big in the nearby WCAR/GOM. That is actually at record warmth there just like the WCar/BoC have record warmth. Do you think that this being the warmest area could keep energy from concentrating enough in the WCar/GOM to form a TC?

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Note that the far EPAC MDR has a decent sized area near 31C with no area anywhere near that big in the nearby WCAR/GOM. That is actually at record warmth there just like the WCar/BoC have record warmth. Do you think that this being the warmest area could keep energy from concentrating enough in the WCar/GOM to form a TC?

Normally at this time of year I’d favor the EPAC because of climatology, but this setup looks to favor (using that term loosely) the Gulf. Shear looks too strong in the EPAC and the focal point of moisture is ejected from the Caribbean into the Gulf. 

Ysz5ww1.png

There are some GEFS lows tucked along the Mexico coast, but the signal over the Gulf is unimpeded and far stronger, even on the EPS now. 

cXrKdtt.png
 

CoqizDS.png
 

It should be underscored for the lurkers watching however—right now anything that develops is likely to be broad and weak and likely kept in check by the shear anomalies over the Gulf. Rain would be the primary concern here.

I’m also intrigued by that second signal the week of the 17th but that’s way out there for now. 

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Euro tries to tighten up close to the northern Gulf coast, so it continues to be a signal worth watching. Still quite weak even if there’s organization. This is at 850mb. 

S4tQ1au.png

At the end of the run it also bites on that secondary signal I’ve been mentioning in the BoC. Nothing to take verbatim, but it signals that there may be a longer window of favorable TC genesis in the homebrew region. 

rRz33lA.png
 

PEe3iNQ.png

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1) UKMET runs since yesterday have been showing a very weak TC forming Wed or Thu off the SE US coast followed by NE movement OTS:

Here’s today’s 12Z run for that one:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 29.4N 77.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.06.2024 96 29.8N 76.6W 1012 28
0000UTC 14.06.2024 108 30.8N 75.7W 1012 21
1200UTC 14.06.2024 120 32.2N 75.0W 1014 23
0000UTC 15.06.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING


2) This is the first UKMET run showing a TCG in the W GOM as it has just gotten to within the 168 hr range. This one has significantly lower SLP than the TC it has for off the SE US. It is then moving NW toward the middle to upper TX coast:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 26.1N 92.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.06.2024 168 27.2N 93.8W 1003 26

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 The 0Z UKMET has a borderline TD/TS making landfall in W LA a week from now. This is the 2nd UKMET run in a row with this. The other run aimed for middle to upper TX but was still offshore at 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 28.6N 91.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.06.2024 168 29.5N 92.3W 1002 34

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