wdrag Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19z NBM is only 0.9". I sort of doubt the 18z NAM is in this, nor the 18z RDPS, and so the 01z/12 NBM should come up two inches on LI, I would guess... IF not, then I'm at a loss. If I was sitting in the seat I'd add 2" to N LI but there could be multiple reasons to remain as a minor event NYC. Not sure...its been a pretty bumpy variable ride near I80-LI from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, wdrag said: 19z NBM is only 0.9". I sort of doubt the 18z NAM is in this, nor the 18z RDPS, and so the 01z/12 NBM should come up two inches on LI, I would guess... IF not, then I'm at a loss. If I was sitting in the seat I'd add 2" to N LI but there could be multiple reasons to remain as a minor event NYC. Not sure...its been a pretty bumpy variable ride near I80-LI from the start. I would go 1-3 for NYC to start and you can always adjust . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's amazing how the models especially the icon has a 974 low offshore. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It should be noted that the low temperature during the storm is 34 on the 18z HRRR. NYC has never had a 10”+ snowfall with such temperatures. The NAM briefly dips below freezing, so its solution is more defensible based on its own numbers. Until the other guidance suggests colder readings than 34-36, it’s difficult to buy these more aggressive solutions for NYC, JFK, and LGA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's amazing how the models especially the icon has a 974 low offshore. Jeez. Assuming this is correct (which I've provided my reasoning as to why I do believe it is), those in Long Island need to think about driving. This is going to be very heavy, wet snow where this thumps and winds look like we will be close to very poor visibility if not the sought out and belive B word. I would be cognizant of this and I would do my best not to drive during this storm if possible. Ala Feb 2013 vibes tbh. EDIT : No, I am not calling for 8+ inch an hr rates rn lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It should be noted that the low temperature during the storm is 34 on the 18z HRRR. NYC has never had a 10”+ snowfall with such temperatures. The NAM briefly dips below freezing, so its solution is more defensible based on its own numbers. Until the other guidance suggests colder readings than 34-36, it’s difficult to buy these more aggressive solutions for NYC, JFK, and LGA. Model temps are not an exact science....nothing is.... I'm about 4-5 degrees colder today than I was "supposed" to be....we'll see if models play temperature catchup as we get closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 What am I looking at?My artwork in MS Paint.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, jdj5211 said: Model temps are not an exact science....nothing is.... I'm about 4-5 degrees colder today than I was "supposed" to be....we'll see if models play temperature catchup as we get closer Of course the temps could be off - I do agree with Don though as I've been through so many events in the city where it was snowing with temps around 34 and got very little accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 13 minutes ago, wdrag said: 19z NBM is only 0.9". I sort of doubt the 18z NAM is in this, nor the 18z RDPS, and so the 01z/12 NBM should come up two inches on LI, I would guess... IF not, then I'm at a loss. If I was sitting in the seat I'd add 2" to N LI but there could be multiple reasons to remain as a minor event NYC. Not sure...its been a pretty bumpy variable ride near I80-LI from the start. Seems it's omitting the ECMWF as well. 10 to 1 but better than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I have a flight on Tuesday morning from Orlando at 7;30 landing at LaGuardia around 10:00,.. do you think I’ll still be on time or delayed or..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Not sure if some you Olds recall February 5, 2001, but that was an over performer in my area, which wasn’t yet developed, and we had fight through the snow in muskets and bearskins. One of my faves. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It should be noted that the low temperature during the storm is 34 on the 18z HRRR. NYC has never had a 10”+ snowfall with such temperatures. The NAM briefly dips below freezing, so its solution is more defensible based on its own numbers. Until the other guidance suggests colder readings than 34-36, it’s difficult to buy these more aggressive solutions for NYC, JFK, and LGA. What's odd is the GFS seems to be on its own right now. All other models have at least 2 for CPK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Greg g said: I have a flight on Tuesday morning from Orlando at 7;30 landing at LaGuardia around 10:00,.. do you think I’ll still be on time or delayed or..?? Can’t know for sure, but I’d call the airline and try to get in monday night if you can. Less hassle. But call soon before everyone gets the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The warm biased RGEM showing big snows into parts of the city is a flag this may be the real deal but it's also a very close call as the gradient just south of the city is very sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It should be noted that the low temperature during the storm is 34 on the 18z HRRR. NYC has never had a 10”+ snowfall with such temperatures. The NAM briefly dips below freezing, so its solution is more defensible based on its own numbers. Until the other guidance suggests colder readings than 34-36, it’s difficult to buy these more aggressive solutions for NYC, JFK, and LGA. HPN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, North and West said: Not sure if some you Olds recall February 5, 2001, but that was an over performer in my area, which wasn’t yet developed, and we had fight through the snow in muskets and bearskins. One of my faves. . I do remember that storm. At least you guys down below had muskets and bear skins. We fought through with recurve bows made from swamp maple and battle axes with wooden handles made from ash and flint napped stone blades. We were naked except for raccoon pelts on our feet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What's odd is the GFS seems to be on its own right now. All other models have at least 2 for CPK. Gfs is going to be slightly south More press so far from the confluence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's all played on paper right now... the game on the snowboard starts at midnight Tuesday morning. mPing are you ready? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: HPN? White Plains has a much better chance of getting into heavy accumulating snow. Probably 3"-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, Greg g said: I have a flight on Tuesday morning from Orlando at 7;30 landing at LaGuardia around 10:00,.. do you think I’ll still be on time or delayed or..?? I hope delayed. Sorry. I want snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z GFS is south of it's previous run for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, HVSnowLover said: 18z GFS is south of it's previous run for sure. Yep and east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol The vort is becoming much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, MJO812 said: The vort is becoming much weaker its further south, wouldnt say much weaker. its just south and not as broad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Increased CPK and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 “The trend is our friend” that phrase isn’t cancelled just cause it’s south now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: “The trend is our friend” that phrase isn’t cancelled just cause it’s south now Better have this trend happening 24-36 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 this is a hilarious 700mb trend. greatest VVs have moved like 100 miles SE since 00z 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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